Good morning, and welcome to another work week. 

It’s budget forecast day at the Minnesota Capitol, but given the international events of the past few days, how accurate will the forecast be? The forecast will guide legislators as they make final session decisions on spending and taxes. MPR’s Brian Bakst reports already, calls for a cautious approach are running headlong into grand ambitions for splitting up what was a substantial surplus at the start of session. In December, the Department of Minnesota Management and Budget projected a $7.7 billion surplus in the current budget. Revenue considerably beat expectations for the last several months, a combination of unusual timing of certain tax payments and money attributed to a growing economy. That said, the picture heading into this forecast is somewhat fuzzy. State finance officials have pointed to tapering in economic growth – from 4.3 to 4.1 percent for this fiscal year and 2.9 percent to 2.5 percent in the next – that would translate into less money than previously anticipated if that pattern holds. That was before the recent Russian invasion of Ukraine and the resulting sanctions that could ripple outward.

A native of Princeton, Minn., living in Kyiv describes a tense and stressful situation as Russian forces advance on the Ukrainian capital.MPR’s Kirsti Marohn reports Joe Whitcomb is a trauma-informed relationship psychotherapist who moved from San Diego, California, to Kyiv last year. His research company, BondFire Project, works with a Ukrainian business to develop virtual or mixed reality to treat trauma victims, including military veterans and first responders. In recent days, Whitcomb, 54, has been hunkered down in his apartment complex, hearing the sounds of gunfire and air raid sirens warning residents to head to a bomb shelter. "Yesterday was really super intense,” he said during a Facebook call on Sunday. “While we're in there, [there was] a lot of shouting, gunfire. And we were hunkered into our car, and it felt very, very dangerous. And we felt very powerless and helpless to be in that kind of situation."

FOX 9 reportshundreds of Ukrainian Americans took to the streets of Minneapolis Sunday, marching across the city in a show of solidarity with their loved ones in harm’s way on the other side of the world.  "Everyone is suffering, and they’re hiding, and they’re having to leave our home country," second-generation Ukrainian Ken Matlashewski said. During the march, many said they were worried about the safety of their loved ones in Ukraine, and equally worried about the future of their home country itself. "It’s disastrous, the emotions that I’m feeling right now [are] far beyond anything else," Matlashewski said. The march from outside of St. Michael’s Ukrainian Orthodox Church ended at the Stone Arch Bridge with Ukrainians and Belarusians marching from opposite sides of the bridge and meeting in the middle, in a show of unity against Russia’s aggression.

Just after his State of the Union address Tuesday night, President Biden is scheduled to be in Superior, Wisconsin Wednesday. According to the White House Biden and first lady Jill Biden will discuss how the $1 trillion infrastructure law will improve the state's roads and bridges, among other things, and create jobs. 

Candidate filing opens tomorrow for the special election to fill out the remainder of the late Jim Hagedorn’s term in Minnesota’s 1st Congressional District. As I noted last week, two Democrats–Richard Painter and Richard DeVoe–have already said they will run, and Dan Feehan, the DFL candidate the past two elections, may also be interested.  A Republican who may be considering a run is former state Rep. Brad Finstad.  The Star Tribune reports : Rep. Jeremy Munson, R-Lake Crystal, filed federal candidacy paperwork Friday in the race. "It's going to be important for us to keep the seat to win the majority," Munson said in an interview earlier in the week. "Obviously this is going to be watched nationally to see how much a close district improves." Hagedorn's wife, Jennifer Carnahan, is viewed as a potential candidate but it is unclear if she will run. "I'm focused right now on planning the funerals and doing everything I can to memorialize my husband and that's where my head's at," Carnahan said.

Enrollment in Minnesota’s public schools continues to decline — a trend that started when the COVID-19 pandemic disrupted schooling in the 2020-2021 school year. MPR’s Elizabeth Shockman reports new data from the state Education Department shows that the percentage of children enrolled in Minnesota’s K-12 public schools has decreased over the last year by 0.3 percent or just over 2,000 students. The decline is far less severe than the nearly 2 percent drop that hit schools in the 2020-2021 school year, when many of Minnesota’s K-12 buildings were closed to in-person learning due to pandemic regulations. “Throughout the pandemic, the needs of our students have continued to expand, and we must ensure our public schools have the funding and resources to support students and families,” Education Commissioner Heather Mueller said in a statement on Friday.