MPR News Capitol View
By Brian Bakst and Ellie Roth

Good morning. The neighborhood hockey rink was barely frozen this year; it has been changed over to the pickleball court opening today if that gives you a sense of winter.


The latest forecast? A high of 55 degrees outside and a good chance of a budget surplus with financial pressure is on the horizon at the Capitol. It was another one of those muddled economic forecasts from the state finance agency yesterday. Sure, there’s a healthy projected surplus now but that could evaporate depending on what lawmakers decide to do this year. The state’s fiscal condition was diagnosed as generally sound, which Democrats held up as the headline news. But Republicans pointed to the falloff later. It’s a campaign year, everybody. This recap is from MPR’s Dana Ferguson.


Tune in to Politics Friday at noon to hear from DFL Chairman Ken Martin and Republican Party Chair David Hann on this year’s election season. Brian sits down with the chairs to talk about their party’s likely presidential nominees, and what that matchup could mean in Minnesota. We’ll also check in with MPR News correspondent Catharine Richert as she reflects on the first Talking Sense live event in Woodbury. Listen here


President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump both visited the U.S.-Mexico border within hours of each other yesterday. It’s a sign of just how central immigration has become to the 2024 election. AP captured both stops. Biden emphasized the scuttled border deal and heard from border agents about what they need to shore up a main U.S. entry point. Trump appeared at another location where migrants have overwhelmed the capacity of officials to deal with the border crossings. He derided those coming in without authorization as terrorists and criminals and pledged a crackdown if he regains the White House. This issue animates the GOP base but independents and some Democrats are also voicing concern over immigration levels. Expect dialed-up rhetoric throughout the campaign year.


Minnesota’s early voting numbers around the presidential primary have yet to detect a surge of interest. The number of votes cast in Minnesota’s presidential primary reached 73,000. But those figures from the Minnesota Secretary of State’s office released yesterday show slightly more than one third of the ballots mailed out or requested in person that have been marked accepted. No vote tabulation will be done before Tuesday’s primary.


Willie Nelson could win presidential votes in Minnesota, at least on paper . People voting in next week’s primary will have the chance to write-in names if they don’t like their options. But it was up to the major parties —  DFL, Legal Marijuana Now and Republican —  to supply the secretary of state’s office with a list of candidates for whom write-in votes would be specifically counted. Neither the DFL nor Republican parties offered any up for individual tallies. Legal Marijuana Now said the country and folk singer known for his fondness for a certain leafy plant would be eligible for votes if people write that name on their ballots. Each voter gets to participate in only one party’s primary, so don’t bank on Nelson getting many votes in his column.


The winner of a GOP primary for an open state House seat notched 91 percent of the vote. Cattle farmer and businessman Bryan Lawrence will be his party’s nominee in the late March special election in House District 27B. That’s the seat left open by the resignation this month of Republican Rep. Kurt Daudt, a former House speaker. Lawrence beat fellow Republican Rachel Davis by 1,150 votes. DFLer Brad Brown ran unopposed and got all 98 votes cast in his party’s primary. Lawrence will be heavily favored in the March 19 general election. The district spans sections of Anoka, Isanti, Mille Lacs and Sherburne counties.

A Minnesota Commerce official is leaving her job amid conflict of interest complaints over her marriageThe Star Tribune’s Walker Orenstein reports Louise Miltich left the department after roughly a year after staff raised concern over Miltich’s marriage to a prominent solar industry lobbyist. Miltch flagged her relationship when appointed to the role, but the agency did not believe it was a conflict of interest. Miltich is joining the energy nonprofit Great Plains Institute as executive vice president. 


Eight U.S. House seats will be decided this year in Minnesota. In reality, only one or two might wind up as truly competitive. Not long ago, the 3rd District fit that bill. But it’s trended more Democratic and Republicans have had trouble retaking it. The seat is open due to Rep. Dean Phillips’ decision to forgo reelection. MPR’s Mark Zdechlik caught up with some of those running to hear what they’re talking about and how the race is shaping up.


Finally, Congress has definitely become a far more partisan place where even lawmakers from the same state don’t often work or appear together if they’re from different parties.The killing of three first responders in Burnsville resulted yesterday in a moment of silence on the U.S. House floor where all eight members of the delegation — four Democrats, four Republicans — stood side by side. Bookmark it.
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