Good morning and welcome to another Monday. 

All political eyes are on the Minnesota Secretary of State’s office where candidate  filing for the special election in Minnesota’s 1st District closes at end of business tomorrow. And some news already early this morning with a campaign announcement from Jennifer Carnahan, the widow of former Republican Congressman Jim Hagedorn, whose death last month left the seat open. “Though my heart is still heavy after Jim’s passing, the encouragement I have received from throughout southern Minnesota has inspired me to carry on his legacy by running to complete the remainder of his term,”  Carnahan said in a statement announcing her campaign. “In the final weeks before his passing, Jim told me to keep forging ahead, to keep reaching my dreams, and to win this seat."

MPR’s Mark Zdechlik has a look at the developing campaign: Carleton College political science professor Steven Schier has been closely following politics in southern Minnesota for decades. But even he’s flabbergasted by this year’s circumstances.  “This is the electoral equivalent of a two-headed calf at the county fair,” Schier said because the timing of Hagedorn’s death triggered one of the strangest set of election circumstances he can imagine under Minnesota law.  “You're going to have a special election on the day of the primary and then an election for a differently drawn district a few months later,” Schier said. “It's a real challenge for any party that is the underdog party in that district.” Democrats are clearly the underdog party in the 1st District, which covers a large area of southern Minnesota from South Dakota to the Wisconsin border, Schier said. Donald Trump won big there in 2016 and 2020 and Republicans and Democrats agree the new district borders do little to change the political make-up of the 1st. “We're solidly, solidly red, solidly Republican, solidly conservative,” said former 1st District Republican Party Chair Jerod Spilman.  But Democrats say they can win in the 1st.

The Star Tribune takes a closer look at Democrats' woes in rural areas : It's a familiar storyline playing out across rural Minnesota and the nation. Areas once amenable to a Democrat with the right message are now shutting out some of those same candidates, exacerbating geographic political divides and limiting places for the party to make inroads in the battle to control the Legislature and Congress. Donald Trump accelerated the trend. The Republican flipped 19 counties in greater Minnesota in 2016 that had voted twice for Barack Obama. Despite Joe Biden's decisive 2020 victory in Minnesota, the Democrat flipped back just four counties outside of the metro. Gregg Peppin, a GOP campaign strategist, said the voters in Trump's flipped counties "have made the switch" and will be hard to win back. "Democrats are being defined by their most progressive legislators and activists, and that sends a signal to rural voters that just don't fit into that party."

I asked DFL Attorney General Keith Ellison on Friday what the Democrats’ message should be in the face of what looks like a possible Republican wave building in the midterm election. Here’s what he said: “The Democratic Party message needs to be to show up and sit and listen and engage with members all over this community, whether they’re in the heart of urban communities, in the suburban communities and absolutely certainly in rural communities. We’ve got to be involved. We can never be out of the conversation. We’ve got to be listening carefully.” Ellison added, “Coming up with some magical catchphrase isn’t going to do it. It’s not a matter of what words to use, it’s a matter of demonstrating true empathy and relationship with the people you represent. It’s a matter of showing up when you don’t want anything, including a vote. And when the only thing you want is to serve, you’ve got to show up then. And if you show up then, people will remember you around Election Day.”

MPR’s Brian Bakst reportsattention at the Minnesota Capitol will soon turn to a bonding bill: In more-normal times, a construction borrowing package known as the bonding bill would be the main priority of state lawmakers in their election-year session. But Minnesota has that giant budget surplus for lawmakers to divvy up this session – estimated at more than $9 billion just a couple of weeks back. Debate over what to do with that projected surplus is dominant right now and could shape discussion around the bonding bill, too. The usual buildup around what a public works bill might contain and discussion over how big a plan should be has been largely overshadowed. The Senate Capital Investment Committee hasn’t even held a hearing yet in 2022, although it also did an extensive tour of 170 projects over the interim between last session and this one. The House Capital Investment Committee has met about a dozen times this session to hear pitches from community leaders and state agencies about what they want. But Committee Chair Fue Lee, DFL-Minneapolis, said release of a comprehensive bonding proposal is still several weeks away and might not be unveiled until after the Legislature’s spring recess in mid-April.

U.S. Sen. Amy Klobuchar is in Poland with a group of her fellow senators, getting a first-hand look at the response to the refugee crisis sparked by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. On Sunday, she spent time along Poland’s border with Ukraine, just 15 miles from the site of a Russian missile attack on a military training center in the Ukrainian city of Yavoriv, which killed dozens of people. “It’s heartbreaking … Ukrainian refugees that are streaming, streaming through the border, many of them having witnessed the bombings of their town, destruction of hospitals and kids killed,” Klobuchar said in a phone interview with MPR News.  Klobuchar said she has been impressed with the resolve of the Ukrainians and by the generosity of the Polish people. "I think that the people of Minnesota — first of all people of Ukrainian descent — they're watching every single moment of this. And I just want them to know how meeting their people up front and center, how they're every bit and more as courageous as we've heard,” she said.