Capitol View for November 11

Good morning. It’s good to be so far from the next major election.

Tim Walz is down to one title these days, governor, and is going to be reasserting himself on the Minnesota scene. The unsuccessful Democratic vice-presidential nominee returned to the state stage last week after his turn in the national spotlight. He told a Minnesota audience that he would work to protect Democratic legislative gains in the new Donald Trump presidential era. But he also said he would do more to listen to all political viewpoints — somewhat of a necessity now that Republicans have a foothold in state government. Their 67 seats in the Minnesota House — equal to what Democrats have — give them a larger say in the next budget and in what gets passed or doesn’t in the 2025 session. Dana Ferguson was at the governor’s speech in Eagan and wrote about the “stark reality” that awaits him in the final two years of his second term. We should expect to see more regular Walz appearances in Minnesota after his three months of coast-to-coast campaigning.

Two close Minnesota House races aren’t fully settled. Rep. Dan Wolgamott has more breathing room in his re-election win for a St. Cloud-area seat. But Sherburne County plans to give more scrutiny to some of the results in his race against Republican Sue Ek, which at last check was outside of the range for a full, publicly funded recount. Meanwhile, DFL Rep. Brad Tabke has a 14-vote edge over Republican Aaron Paul in their Shakopee-area district. That’s one more than the election night result. A rescan of some ballots Friday netted one more vote for Tabke. Republicans are crying foul over the shifts that have been detected in the pre-canvass reconciliation, a normal process that gets more attention when races are tight. The recount could be weeks away, but the outcome will determine if the 67-67 House split is locked in ahead of session or if Republicans gain the barest of majorities. A lot is on the line.

How will the new Capitol dynamic play out in reality? We put those questions to two legislative leaders and a close observer on Politics Friday. If you missed it, catch the episode featuring House Speaker Melissa Hortman, Senate Minority Leader Mark Johnson and Majority in the Middle’s Shannon Watson here. For your planning, this week’s episode is being hosted by Clay as Brian heads off on a vacation.

Former President Donald Trump will end up with a convincing Electoral College victory. The final race calls came over the weekend in Nevada and Arizona. In the end, Trump swept the seven swing states on his way to 312 electoral votes — far more than 270 needed to gain the White House. That means he won six states that he lost in 2020: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. The seventh swing state, North Carolina, remained in the Republican column. Looking ahead to 2028, the next closest states that could rise to battleground status include: New Hampshire, Virginia and, drumroll please, Minnesota.