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Tuesday, July 23, 2024
In the midst of an incredibly frustrating stretch, we saw a glimpse of peak Carlos Rodon Monday afternoon. Pitching against the Rays, Rodon had arguably his best start of the season, striking out 10 over seven innings, while allowing just one run on two hits and a walk.
And the funny thing is, he did it without abandoning his fastball, the one thing we thought he needed to do to be successful. Rodon threw his four-seamer 54% of the time, allowing just 79.6 mph average exit velocity on eight balls in play; for the season, he had been allowing a 94.1 mph EV with the pitch, a disastrous mark. 
When I wrote about Rodon a few weeks ago, I focused primarily on the four-seamer, because, for all its struggles, it still mostly looked like the pitch it used to be. The velocity is still there; the physical characteristics like spin rate and movement pretty much looked like they always had, too. And yet, that pitch had gone from one of the best in baseball in 2021 and 2022 to an outright liability over the past two seasons. And I'm going to need to see a lot more than one good start to buy back in.
But, if nothing else, Monday was a reminder of what Rodon can still be capable of when everything is going right. I don't know if it makes much sense to buy back in on Rodon after this one, but I can at least see the case for it – if Rodon can rediscover his pre-2022 form, you could buy an absolute ace at a huge discount, and Monday was a sign that it might still be in there.
I just don't know if he can do it consistently enough to be more than a boom-or-bust SP4 for Fantasy. That's where I've got him ranked, and I'm going to need to see more than this one start to move him back up.  
And now, here's everything else you need to know about from Monday's action around MLB, beginning with the return of a potential impact arm.
Tuesday's waiver targets
A recent Cy Young winner might be available on your league's waiver wire right now. And he might still have difference-making potential. 
Robbie Ray is set to make his season debut Wednesday for the Giants, after finishing off his rehab from Tommy John surgery in recent days. It's a tough landing spot, with Ray scheduled to face the Dodgers , so expectations should be fairly low for the first start back. But I'm pretty excited to see what the 2021 Cy Young winner can do the rest of the way.
He's made 10 appearances on his rehab assignment, posting a 3.38 ERA in 29.1 innings, but what's most impressive is how he kept getting better as he got closer to his return. It was a somewhat rocky start to his rehab assignment, but Ray closed things out with 16 strikeouts and only three walks in 10.1 innings over his final two outings, and he looked especially sharp in his final outing, dialing his fastball velocity up to 93.7 mph – down a bit from his Cy Young season, but up from 2022, hardly a bad sign given the injury.
One notable aspect of that start is that Ray used his curveball as his No. 2 pitch, not his slider; Ray threw his slider over 30% of the time in 2021 and 2022 while using the curveball less than 10% of the time; in 2022, he threw it just 1.9% of the time. The slider has always been the bread-and-butter pitch for Ray, and it's hard to know if he can be that same guy without it. On the other hand, if the curveball is suddenly a weapon he can rely on consistently, that could make the whole profile play up, even if he isn't quite as comfortable throwing the slider as often coming off the injury. The curveball has generally produced pretty awesome results, including a massive 52.5% whiff rate in 2021, so there are reasons to be hopeful. 
Don't be surprised if Ray gets off to a slow start, especially against the Dodgers. He's 32 and coming off a serious elbow injury, and the Mariners were seemingly so down on him that he was basically salary-dumped this offseason. It may not work out for Ray. But at a time of the season when we're short on difference-making pitchers on the waiver wire, Ray could be one of the last ones to become available in your league. Go check if he's available. 
River Ryan, SP, Dodgers (27%) – It's not clear how long the Dodgers plan to keep Ryan around, but I think he's worth a look in deeper leagues, at least. He showed a deep arsenal in his MLB debut Monday against the Giants, throwing six pitches at least six times, and all of them save for the sinker rated out as above-average pitchers per one Stuff model. We've seen guys like Seth Lugo and Gavin Stone have success with deep arsenals like this, and Ryan is obviously in a situation that could maximize his value if he sticks around. With Clayton Kershaw and Tyler Glasnow close to returning from the IL, that may not be for long. On the other hand, the Dodgers did DFA James Paxton Monday to make room for Ryan on the active roster, so maybe there is a path to sustained Fantasy relevance. 
Alex Cobb, SP, Giants (8%) – Cobb is probably a little behind Ray, but he should be back in the Giants rotation shortly, and he has some upside of his own. Probably not as much as Ray, but Cobb does have a 3.79 ERA over his past three seasons with some strikeout upside when his splitter is working. He has been out all season recovering first from offseason hip surgery and then some shoulder issues, but he recently moved his rehab assignment up to Triple-A, where he tossed five shutout innings in his debut. I think Cobb is below Ray, Clayton Kershaw, and Jeffrey Springs on the IL stash rankings, but if you have a spot to play with and none of them are available, give Cobb a look. 
Austin Wells, C, Yankees (15%) – The Yankees had four batted balls of 110 mph or higher Monday against the Rays, and right there alongside Aaron Judge and Juan Soto was Wells, who crushed a 111.2 mph home run, the hardest-hit ball of his career and one of three 100-mph batted balls he generated Monday. It was Wells' fourth homer of July, in what is turning out to be the best month of his young career. Wells has struck out just 17% of the time in July and seems to be tapping into some of the upside that made him a top-100 prospect before the season. Wells made the leap to the majors after just 33 games at Triple-A, but he was a career .260/.370/.476 hitter with 53 homers in 291 minor-league games, so there is some talent here. If you're looking for a No. 2 catcher, he appears to be emerging as the team's top option at the position, too. 
Justyn-Henry Malloy, 3B, Tigers (8%) – Malloy is starting to heat up. He has homered in consecutive games after going deep Monday, and he's up to four homers in just 50 plate appearances in the month of July so far while hitting .279. The knock here is the 28% strikeout rate, and that might always be an issue for Malloy, given how often he swings and misses. But he's patient at the plate and has shown the ability to barrel the ball up to the pull side, and has his xwOBA up to .349 so far in July. That'll play. 
News and Notes
Julio Rodriguez was out of the lineup Monday with the right ankle injury suffered Sunday. Mariners manager Scott Servais said Julio is day-to-day after undergoing an MRI, so hopefully he can avoid the IL and return soon. 
Mookie Betts took light swings Monday for the first time since suffering a fractured left hand. He's been ramping up his on-field defensive work in recent days, so it looks like it's all positive momentum for now. Hopefully Betts can return in the next couple of weeks. 
Royce Lewis will begin a rehab assignment with Triple-A on Tuesday. He's been sidelined for three weeks with a right adductor strain. Knock on wood and let's hope he can be back by next week. 
Some Angels news: Mike Trout will begin his rehab Tuesday and will play at least two games before returning. Luis Rengifo could be ready to return from the IL on Tuesday.
Jared Jones threw off flat ground from about 90 to 120 feet Monday. He went on the IL on July 4 with a Grade 2 right lat strain and is probably several weeks away in the best-case scenario. 
Michael Harris has yet to progress to sprinting as he works his way back from a left hamstring strain, but he has been able to do some light running on the field. 
Cody Bellinger is able to hit without much discomfort but is still having some trouble gripping a baseball. He's nearly two weeks removed from suffering a fractured left middle finger and probably needs at least a few more weeks to recover. 
Kodai Senga is expected to get about five innings and 85 pitches in his season debut, which is scheduled for Friday against the Braves. I tried to avoid getting him in my lineup for this week, but I am excited to see him back out there. 
Jacob deGrom is getting close to facing hitters. He'll throw around 40 pitches in a bullpen session Tuesday and is slated for another bullpen Friday, but probably needs at least another month before he is cleared to return to the majors, if not longer. 
One of the corresponding moves with Robbie Ray expected to be activated was that Hayden Birdsong was optioned to Single-A. He will be back to start the team's doubleheader on Saturday, but I have no idea what the plan after that is. Birdsong racked up 27 swinging strikes in his most recent start, but the Giants may want him to remain down in the minors for more seasoning as their rotation finally starts to get healthy. If you added Birdsong, I wouldn't drop him right away, though, because holes have a tendency to form in seemingly healthy rotations. 
J.P. Crawford was diagnosed with a fractured pink and will go on the IL. Maybe Ryan Bliss will see more opportunities. He hasn't done much in the majors so far but does have an .800 OPS with 18 homers and 53 steals in 110 career Triple-A games. 
Red Sox manager Alex Cora said Monday that Triston Casas could be close to turning a corner in the recovery process. Casas has been out since late April with torn cartilage in his left rib.
Bobby Miller will remain in Triple-A for at least his next start. He made a start at Triple-A Saturday, tossing five scoreless innings with four walks, which isn't exactly what we want to see despite the solid results. 
Tommy Edman is expected to resume his rehab assignment with Double-A on Tuesday. He hasn't played since July 14 due to lingering ankle soreness.
The Braves signed Whit Merrifield to a one-year contract. On his first day, he was struck on his right hand by an errant ground ball during defensive drills. He's been cleared of any fractures but doesn't figure to play a ton even when healthy. 
Monday's standouts 
Ranger Suarez, Phillies @MIN: 5.1 IP, 7 H, 3 ER, 1 BB, 4 K – For the most part, I think Suarez is going to be fine moving forward, but he's officially in a slump, having allowed 18 runs over his past four starts. He missed time with a back injury during that stretch, and that has surely played a part in his regression. But I think it's also just true that he was never going to be able to sustain his early-season success, so this might just be run-of-the-mill regression catching up to him. If you expect something more like a mid-3.00s ERA the rest of the way from Suarez, you should be pretty pleased, but he probably isn't going to be an ace. 
Hunter Greene, Reds @ATL: 7 IP, 2 H, 0 ER, 3 BB, 7 K – Consistency has always been a problem for Greene, so we'll be watching closely to see how he builds on his current run, which has seen him give up just two runs in his past four starts. He continues to generate excellent quality-of-contact results, with just four hard-hit balls and an 85 mph average exit velocity Monday, which is clearly the biggest difference between previous years and this one – he's gone from a pretty ugly .384 xwOBA on contact to a .319 mark so far this season, an elite mark. If he can keep that up at all, this might not just be a fluke. But it might just be a hot streak, too. 
Blake Snell , Giants @LAD: 6 IP, 4 H, 2 ER, 2 BB, 4 K – We haven't seen many truly dominant outings from Snell, but he has been much improved since coming off the IL in early July, allowing just six hits and two runs over 18 innings. That has come with just 12 strikeouts, so he clearly isn't all the way back yet, and he might not be until he rediscovers his slider and changeup, which he threw just 15 times Monday. His curveball was incredible, generating 10 whiffs, but that probably isn't going to be enough for Snell to pitch like an ace. Maybe he won't get all the way back there, but at the very least, he looks usable again, something he certainly wasn't early in the season. 
Tanner Houck , Red Sox @COL: 6 IP, 10 H, 4 ER, 3 BB, 2 K – For as good as Houck has been this season, there are definitely some red flags here. He has just nine strikeouts in 15.1 innings in the month of July, and given the significant regression in his slider and splitter whiff rates, that might not be just a coincidence. The bigger issue might be the regression in the quality of contact Houck has allowed lately – he's allowing a .352 xwOBA over the past 100 PA against him, compared to his .304 seasonal mark. Houck has already thrown more innings than any season of his career, and it might not be a bad idea to start putting some sell-high trade offers out there. Now, with all that being said, it is worth noting that this start was in Coors Field, so you can make a pretty good case that we should just ignore this one. If you're a believer, that's perfectly reasonable. 
Reynaldo Lopez , Braves vs. CIN: 6 IP, 7 H, 4 ER, 2 BB, 5 K – Lopez wasn't terrible Monday; he just wasn't very good. And that's pretty much what I expect from him moving forward. It's been a nice run for him, but Lopez's underlying numbers have never backed up his success, with his xERA of 4.23 standing out as nearly 2.5 runs worse than his actual mark entering Monday. Lopez should still be useful against the right matchups, but I simply don't expect him to be anything close to a must-start pitcher the rest of the way, especially since he's another pitcher who has already thrown more innings than any season since 2019. 
Michael Lorenzen, Rangers vs. CHW: 5 IP, 6 H, 2 ER, 2 BB, 8 K – Even when things are going well for Lorenzen, he typically doesn't generate many strikeouts, so that's what stands out here. But I don't see much reason to think this was for real – he generated a decent 13 swinging strikes on 94 pitches, and his velocity was also down significantly across the board, which makes me think it was a fluke, more or less. The White Sox have made a lot of mediocre pitchers look pretty good this season. 
Tyler Anderson, Angels @SEA: 5.2 IP, 3 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 8 K – Anderson had just 19 strikeouts in 34.2 innings in the month of June, so it's downright shocking to see him come out with 22 in 19.2 innings through his first three July starts. I'm inclined to chalk this one up to facing the historically strikeout-prone Mariners without Julio Rodriguez in the lineup, but if nothing else, Anderson has given us some reason to not drop him lately. 
Hogan Harris, Athletics vs. HOU: 6.2 IP, 7 H, 0 ER, 2 BB, 7 K – This was a solid start against a tough opponent, and it lowered Harris' ERA for the season to 2.98. And I just don't really care very much. His velocity was down nearly 2 mph across the board and he generated just 10 swinging strikes on 93 pitches, so he was hardly overpowering. And Harris still has an xERA north of 5.50, so I don't see much reason to believe in what he's doing right now. Against the right matchups at home, I guess he can be a decent streamer? 
Yilber Diaz, Diamondbacks @KC: 3 IP, 9 H, 7 ER, 1 BB, 0 K – Diaz has had some flashes, but he imploded in his third career start, which is a shame for those of you who streamed him in his two-start week. He just didn't have anything going for him, but the slider was especially poor, generating no swings and misses and a couple of hard-hit balls. I still think Diaz has some long-term appeal, but with just seven strikeouts in his first 15 innings, he simply hasn't shown enough to warrant much more than NL-only appeal if he sticks around in the rotation, which is no sure thing after a start like this. 
Andre Pallante, Cardinals @PIT: 6 IP, 3 H, 1 ER, 2 BB, 3 K – Pallante is on a decent little run here, allowing just six runs over his past four starts, and he isn't totally without merits as a pitcher. He generates very few swings and misses and doesn't have great command, but he does generate a ton of weak contact, though that wasn't really on display Monday, as he gave up 18 balls in play with a 94.4 mph average exit velocity. Of course, getting hit hard matters less if it's on the ground, and Pallante is a standout there, generating 11 groundouts Monday. Against the right matchups, he can be useful, but won't provide much beyond decent run prevention even at his best, like last night. 
David Peterson, Mets @MIA: 5 IP, 6 H, 2 ER, 4 BB, 4 K – This wasn't a bad outing if you streamed Peterson, but it also highlights why he's such a Fantasy afterthought. I mean, four strikeouts to four walks against the Marlins? Meh.
 
 
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