I am a special kind of petty, sorry to the rest of the west. I am intrigued by each of these teams and found more reasons for optimism about each offense than I expected, so this will be fun! Still, though, we all know who this division runs through! Go Chiefs!

In order to fit 32 team-by-team breakdowns in and not go seven days a week and also finish this endeavor by the end of the first week in August, I decided to jam eight teams into the first week of July. Now you'll have plenty of content to consume as you avoid your family on this holiday weekend. You're welcome!

Going forward, we'll only ever have one team per day. It'll be really nice to settle into a groove next week, starting with the Indianapolis Colts on Monday. We've covered a lot of ground this week!

July's FFT newsletter topics:

Monday, July 1 -- Projecting the New York Jets and New England Patriots
Tuesday, July 2 -- Projecting the Miami Dolphins
Wednesday, July 3 -- Projecting the Buffalo Bills
Thursday, July 4 -- Projecting the Kansas City Chiefs

If you are a new subscriber or missed either of those newsletters, no worries! We're working on creating a space to host previous newsletters. Rest assured that you'll be able to read all of my ramblings to your heart's fullest content at some point this summer!

Before diving into Fantasy analysis in these team previews, I'll present a brief overview containing their offensive ranks in my base line team projections as well as any notable coaching or offensive line changes. Alrighty, let's learn about this exciting trio of challengers to the throne in the AFC West!

We'll go one by one, starting with the Antonio Pierce-led Raiders.

Raiders Day

Projected Offensive Plays – (30th)

Projected Passing TDs – 22.2 (26th)

Projected Rushing TDs – 18.6 (17th)

Notable coaching changes:

• Antonio Pierce gets a full offseason to implement his strategy as head coach
• Luke Getsy hired as offensive coordinator

I loved what I found when taking a look under the hood at Antonio Pierce's mid-season takeover.

The Raiders actually had a higher situation-neutral (situations where the score was within six points) pass rate (56.4%) with Pierce coaching than Josh McDaniels (54.1%). The league average was 56.6%. Pierce also posted a higher situation-neutral first-down pass rate (49%) than McDaniels (44%). The league average was 46%. This team didn't lean quite as run-first as I remembered!

More Antonio Pierce fun:

• Pre-snap motion rate increased from 46% under McDaniels to 53%. League average was 48%
• Play action rate on passes increased from 18% to 26%. League average was 23%.

These are exciting micro-trends! Pierce was a linebackers coach who took over as interim, I was shocked to find any substantial change made. For reference, I just analyzed the Buffalo Bills and found very little change schematically following the Joe Brady midseason takeover outside of an increase in run play calls. Pierce actually instituted some changes to the offensive structure.

Another exciting change, for Fantasy at least, was that Pierce did not use a fullback nearly as much as McDaniels. This is exciting for Fantasy, because it should allow for more playing time for both Brock Bowers and Michael Mayer. With Pierce coaching, the Raiders used 3+ wide receivers at a rate that was right in line with the Dallas Cowboys and Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

Notable offensive line changes

• Lost guard Greg Van Roten and tackle Jermaine Eluemunor in free agency
• Drafted center Jackson Powers-Johnson (awesome lineman name, feels like a perfect fit for what Antonio Pierce and Zamir White want to do)
• Signed guard Luke Whitehair from Chicago

Whitehair has familiarity with Getsy and has been an effective player throughout his career but saw his PFF grade drop to a career-worst 45.0 in 2023, his eighth season. He'll likely serve as depth, assuming that Powers-Johnson can make the transition from center to guard.

Van Roten was a star for Vegas at guard in 2023. Only left tackle Kolton Miller graded better according to PFF. Van Roten and Eluemunor were staples for this offense, but there's reason for optimism when it comes to the replacements. Thayer Munford Jr. is expected to fill the vacancy at right tackle. A former seventh-round pick, Munford Jr. has been a huge hit for the Raiders. He has 890 snaps of experience in his two years as a pro and registered a better PFF grade than Eluemunor in 2023. PFF graded him as the best run-blocking Raider.

I think this offensive line is going to be awesome. I am very excited to see what Antonio Pierce installs with a full offseason. If last year's pre-snap motion and first-down pass rates are any indication, Pierce may be creative enough to keep defenses on their toes. And a defender on its toes is soon going to be put on its butt when confronted with Zamir White.

White took over for Josh Jacobs in Week 15 and proved to be a huge boost to the offense. Even though the best Vegas lineman (Kolton Miller) only was on the field for 33% of White's snaps from Week 15 on, that was the best stretch of the Raiders offense all season.

All of those micro-trends that I laid out in the coaching section only increased with White. Particularly, I am intrigued by the play action rates. Over the final month of the season, with the run game working, the Raiders increased play action rate on passes to 28%. That would have ranked fourth over the full season. The Raiders passed the ball more in neutral situations over the final month. Pierce called up first down passes at a higher rate over the final month. Even though he was pounding the rock with White 20+ times per game, Pierce remained pretty unpredictable overall as a play-caller. White's emergence only helped set up more play action opportunities. 

All of this was accomplished with Aidan O'Connell at QB. Can we expect the offense to operate as successfully if Gardner Minshew replaces AOC in 2024?

Minshew has been pretty great as a play action passer throughout his career. He's benefited from playing with some great play-callers, but still, he seems comfortable operating a heavy play action offense. And, honestly, the more that I dig into what Pierce did in 2023, the more I believe he may be capable of being a great play-caller. Specifically, as it pertains to Minshew, and potentially O'Connell, I'm encouraged by Pierce's shift away from middle-of-the-field passing in 2023.

Being able to attack the middle of the field is important, or at least, it's not a good thing to be limited in where you can attack. Ultimately, this limitation may be what keeps this offense from being anything more than a middle-of-the-pack unit. Surely we can't expect more than that from this QB room, though, right? Just mitigating the damage and avoiding disaster seems like a huge W, and I believe Pierce is capable of doing just that.

With McDaniels coaching, the Raiders targeted the middle of the field 27% of the time, according to the FantasyPoints Data Suite. They were terrible at it, and even worse when it was O'Connell doing it. During Pierce's time coaching, that rate dropped to 18%, as the passing offense focused on the perimeters. I bring this up because we saw Shane Steichen have to work around similar limitations with his Indianapolis offense once he lost Anthony Richardson. Minshew doesn't have the arm talent to aggressively push the ball into tight windows over the middle.

Jakobi Meyers and the slot/tight end targets are the most likely to be negatively impacted by this, while Davante Adams is the clear beneficiary. Adams gathered 970 of 1,144 receiving yards on perimeter targets in 2023.

We have not discussed new Raiders offensive coordinator Luke Getsy much yet, and that's because I don't really know how to evaluate his two-year tenure as offensive coordinator with the Bears. Chicago was the league's most run-centric team during that time, but so much of the offensive identity was built around Justin Fields. It's worth noting that Getsy maximized D.J. Moore's skill set in 2023 and has seven years of experience working with Adams during his time in Green Bay as the offensive quality control coach, then the wide receivers coach, and then the passing game coordinator. All of that before the age of 40, and it's no surprise the the Raiders are excited to have landed Getsy. Intuitively, he feels like a potentially terrific addition for Adams.

What does this mean for Bowers? It doesn't feel like a great fit. He's probably going to be doing a lot of over-the-middle work. Pierce could also use him on out-breaking routes a lot, though, and I think that Minshew can hit him on those routes. We saw him deliver those types of targets on point to Josh Downs in 2023. 

Overall, Bowers has a lot of circumstantial stuff working against his rookie season projection. He's one of the best tight end prospects that we've ever seen and will undoubtedly be a big part of what the Raiders do on offense. I'm making sure that I draft him in some spots, but I am worried we may be waiting a year or two before we access prime Bowers productivity. He projects as the 11th-highest-scoring Fantasy TE for 2024, but I'm fine drafting Bowers ahead of Jake Ferguson, Evan Engram, or David Njokju if looking to get exposure to his upside.

As for the rest of the Raiders, I haven't drafted much. After digging into Pierce's 2023 coaching data, I'm going to try to get more exposure to Adams and White. I have my concerns about Adams as a declining player, but he's positioned to put up another monster season if he's still got enough left in the tank.

Next up on today's three-parter, what can we expect from Jim Harbaugh and Justin Herbert in 2024? Where might this Chargers offense look for answers, and will any of it work?

Chargers Day

Projected Offensive Plays – (T-26th)

Projected Passing TDs – 23.8 (23rd)

Projected Rushing TDs – 19.5 (11th)

Notable coaching changes:

• Jim Harbaugh takes over as head coach
• Greg Roman hired as new offensive coordinator
• Jesse Minter leaves Michigan with Harbaugh to become the defensive coordinator of the Chargers

Notable offensive line changes

• Let center Will Clapp walk in free agency
• Signed center Bradley Bozeman
• Drafted tackle (weapon) Joe Alt

The Chargers now have invested three Round 1 selections -- Alt (fifth overall in 2024), guard Zion Johnson (17th overall in 2022), and tackle Rashawn Slater (13th overall in 2021) -- into this offensive line over the past four drafts. Slater's PFF grade was a career-low 76.6 in 2023. He's been excellent overall, 76.6 as a low mark through an initial three seasons is fantastic work. Johnson, on the other hand, has PFF grades of 62.2 and 57.6 through two seasons. The Chargers are hoping that overhauling the coaching staff and adding an offensive weapon at right tackle will have a "rising tides raise all ships" effect. Because the interior offensive line looks pretty poor on paper, all three projected starters struggled in 2023.

This offensive line has as much talent as any, and the tackle duo is particularly exciting.

Jim Harbaugh offenses have leaned heavily on the run when in scoring distance. Might we see his 6-foot-6 and 236-pound QB used as a red zone rushing weapon in 2024?

Everyone seems content assuming that it will be Round 2 selection Ladd McConkey who serves as Herbert's WR1 as a rookie. I'm hesitant to assign a large target share to the rook.

McConkey's career-high single-game target total at Georgia was nine. he only topped six targets in four of 39 games. McConkey only drew a target on 24% of his routes during his Georgia career and his single-season high was just 26%. That single-season high ranked 15th among the 23 rookie receivers who I evaluated from the 2024 class and was just 27th percentile among WR prospects that I have evaluated over the past five draft classes.

Yes, McConkey competed with Bowers and other NFL prospects for targets in a run-first offense at Georgia. We do have a decent sample size (140 career routes) of McConkey without Bowers on the field, though, and his TPRR rate within that sample was just 24.7%. We have no evidence of him being a target-earner.

That might not matter! The Chargers could use McConkey in a way that we never have seen before, and that could result in him drawing targets in a way that we have never seen before. He's a very high risk/reward pick, but the reward is definitely real if this offense is better than expected and he's a focal point.

Josh Palmer is the receiver who I am betting on in this offense. Palmer offered some really encouraging data points in his third season and is the receiver who I expect to remain on the field in one and two-receiver sets. Harbaugh only used three receiver sets 35% of the time at Michigan, which ranked 68th of 69 Power 5 teams. I doubt that Quentin Johnston matters for Fantasy, and it's possible that Palmer is the only receiver who sees enough volume to be relevant.

The excerpt below is from a previous FFT Newsletter, "In The Lab: Rush Scheme Data Deep Dive." That proved to be a super fun exercise. If you missed that newsletter, don't worry, it'll be published later this summer.

If the tank is empty, Kimani Vidal also fits the system pretty well and was highly productive during his (long) career at Troy.

A few people on Twitter decided it was worth our time to point out that this list is not necessarily predictive of NFL success. That's true, there's very little correlation between ranking high in total career collegiate yards after contact creation and future Fantasy points in the NFL, in case that wasn't already clear to anyone based on the results that feature Vidal, Ray Davis, Zack Moss, and DeWayne McBride in the top-five.

Generally speaking, long collegiate careers aren't what we're looking for from RB prospects. We want early declares. This list of players is meant to depict, simply, that it's impressive that Vidal maintained such a high avoided tackle rate over a massive workload. He avoided tackles at a higher rate than Breece Hall even while handling more total touches. That's interesting, right?

In a vacuum, this list is mostly just eye candy and doesn't matter for Fantasy. In a few specific isolated instances, like when Vidal lands in a run-heavy offense with tons of backfield playing time ambiguity, it's interesting to note that he was elite at avoiding tackles and creating yardage after contact. Those traits just might earn him playing time if his veteran backfield mates don't have the juice they used to.

One final note on the Chargers -- Harbaugh and Roman have featured the tight end position prominently, and there's target distribution ambiguity in this offense. One of Will Dissly or Hayden Hurst may prove to be a Fantasy value. If you're in leagues where knowing deep tight end targets is important, keep an eye on how the L.A. tight end room takes shape over training camp and preseason.

To bring things home, we finish this AFC West adventure with Bo Nix, Zach Wilson, and the rest of the Denver Broncos.

Broncos Day

Projected Offensive Plays – (T-26th)

Projected Passing TDs – 23.8 (24th)

Projected Rushing TDs – 14.9 (30th)

Notable coaching changes:

• Longtime Saints offensive coordinator Pete Carmichael is reunited with Sean Payton as an offensive assistant

Carmichael served as the New Orleans OC from 2009-2023. I recognized his name when looking at Denver's coaching staff because Saints fans on Twitter curse his name any time I share pre-snap motion and/or play action data. The Saints offense ranked last in both metrics in 2023.

New Orleans was the only offense that used less pre-snap motion than the Broncos.

Notable offensive line changes

• Lost a top-10 (graded) center in Lloyd Cushenberry
• Drafted a guard in Round 7

PFF graded the Broncos line as the fifth-best pass-blocking unit and fourth-best run-blocking unit in 2023. Losing Cushenberry is a real hurdle to overcome in 2024, and the plan appears to be to use third-year former Round 5 selection Luke Wattenberg as the replacement. He has 129 career snaps in the NFL.

In 2023, 58% of total touchdowns came via passing touchdowns. Sean Payton's career rate is 63%, and 11 of 16 offenses finished above that 58% mark. The two Payton-led teams in the post-Drew Brees era have posted rates of 67.4% and 73.7%.

Bo Nix was phenomenal analytically at Oregon, and he enters an NFL offensive system that has produced incredible analytical results. He might just keep putting up numbers. For what it's worth, Vegas lookahead lines have the Broncos projected for the third-fewest points scored (355.75) in 2024. For reference, Harbaugh's Chargers carry the 20th-best projection (398.25), while the Raiders rank 27th (375.5). The Broncos come in well behind both teams. Touchdown upside is tough to project for this offense.

Williams may not need many touchdowns to reach the top of his range of outcomes, for PPR leagues at least. The following excerpt comes from a previous FFT Newsletter, "The Importance of RB Targets & Receptions." It'll be published later this offseason!

You can subscribe to Stealing Signals and find Ben's amazing analysis here!

Trading away Jerry Jeudy may prove huge for Courtland Sutton. Throughout their career, when sharing the field, Jeudy has drawn targets and produced receiving yardage at a significantly higher rate than Sutton. When Jeudy has frequently missed time, Sutton has stepped up and produced like a WR1.

If this team scores the bulk of its touchdowns through the air, Sutton is the clear presumptive beneficiary. He could be a massive Fantasy value, nobody except for my guy Heath Cummings seems to want to draft him.

Payton rotates players on and off of the field a lot. If looking at the 2024 Broncos depth chart, it feels like we might see some sort of rotation for every WR other than Sutton. In healthy games, Sutton logged an 85% route participation rate in 2023. I think his role is safe. I'm not so sure about Marvin Mims or any other WR beyond Sutton. The Broncos drafted Troy Franklin in Round 4 and added Josh Reynolds in free agency, and veteran Tim Patrick is back.

Greg Dulcich is also set to return in 2024 and potentially play all over the formation. Blocking tight end Lucas Krull has received constant praise from the Broncos organization this offseason, and Adam Trautman remains at the top of the tight end depth chart.

At running back, Williams is joined by 2023 rookie sensation Jaleel McLaughlin (also a recipient of a non-stop stream of offseason Payton adoration), Samaje Perine (for now, at least), and rookie Round 5 selection Audric Estime. Estime may be the best pure rusher on the team and brings experience running in a varied rush scheme approach at Notre Dame. He may prove to be exactly what Payton wants in an early-down runner. The Broncos also may have found another UDFA RB who can contribute, as converted WR Blake Watson brings some very cool collegiate data and -- you guessed it -- an offseason full of positive quotes from the Broncos coaching staff.

That's a lot of players to potentially factor into an overall offensive output that is expected to be among the league's worst! There's a real chance that no one in this offense matters for Fantasy. Nix, Sutton, and Williams are your best bets, but I don't feel overly confident in any of them.

We did it. Two divisions and eight teams in one week. Going forward, we'll be only hitting on one team per weekday. My editor and I are both very happy about this, and you deserve a break as a reader. If you made it this far, congratulations, you are well on your way to crushing your Fantasy competition and achieving all of your wildest Fantasy football dreams in 2024. Good work. We're doing important work here, no doubt.

Enjoy your weekend, and I'll be back in your inbox on Monday with an Indianapolis Colts team preview! AFC South week! C.J. Stroud, Anthony Richardson, Trevor Lawrence, and Will Levis -- next week's gonna be fun!