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Hi John, here's what you need to know for March 31st in 3:12 minutes.

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Today's big stories

  1. China announced a fresh interest rate cut to help offset the economic impact of coronavirus
  2. One major investment bank thinks the market has bottomed, and even expects stocks to make gains next quarter – Read Now
  3. Airline EasyJet, which has grounded its fleet, is now under pressure to cancel major plane orders worth $6 billion
1/3

Crackdown

Crackdown

What’s Going On Here?

China announced a cut to a key interest rate on Monday, in an effort to start piecing its coronavirus-hit economy back together.

What Does This Mean?

To understand Monday’s announcement, it’s worth rewinding to February when China cut a different key interest rate – one that helps determine the rate at which commercial banks lend money. Lower rates typically encourage borrowing, but they also squeeze banks’ profits by narrowing their “net interest margin” – the difference between the amount they pay in interest and the amount they charge borrowers.

So on Monday, China’s central bank lowered another interest rate – the one it charges the country’s banks on week-long loans – by the most in five years. It’s likely hoping the decision will reduce their costs and, in turn, encourage them to lend more to the country’s businesses and consumers.

Why Should I Care?

The bigger picture: There’s no “I” in “central bank”.
By announcing economy-boosting measures in March, China now seems to be part of a coordinated effort by global central banks to minimize the long-term economic effects of coronavirus. That may explain why some investors now expect the country to provide even more economic support, including fresh interest rate and tax cuts. And with transport systems in Wuhan – where the virus’s spread began – reportedly reopening this week after a two-month lockdown, those measures could be helpful as the region’s businesses and consumers try to return to normal.

For markets: Sketchy data?
One way investors try to figure out when stock markets in Europe and the US might bounce back is by comparing their coronavirus statistics with those in China, which seems to have come through the worst of the pandemic. But analysts have now begun to question the accuracy of Chinese data. And if the country’s not as well as it claims, investors who are using China to predict a stock market recovery next quarter might be proved overly optimistic.

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2/3 Premium

The Only Way Is Up

JPMorgan thinks many investment prices are done falling, and predicts they’ll make gains in the coming quarter instead. Our analysts look at the assumptions that’s based on, and how likely it really seems.

Get the full story in the Finimize app

3/3

That Awkward Moment

That Awkward Moment

What’s Going On Here?

As if it wasn’t mortifying enough that EasyJet had to ground its entire coronavirus-anchored fleet on Monday: the UK airline’s biggest shareholder now wants it to back out of an almost $6 billion deal too.

What Does This Mean?

With a third of the world’s population in lockdown, airlines are in survival mode. But by canceling all its flights, EasyJet at least has one less thing to worry about: the UK government will pay its staff on the company’s behalf. It’s hoping to save money elsewhere too – mostly by trimming costs and delaying payments to suppliers.

Those actions may look decisive, but the airline’s strategy has restarted a long-running dispute with its founder, who still owns 34% of the company. He wants EasyJet to save even more cash by reneging on a $5.6 billion order for new Airbus planes, and he’s said he’s prepared to push for changes to the board if he doesn’t get his way.

Why Should I Care?

For markets: Cabin pressure. 
EasyJet’s stock slid 7% on the news that revenue would fall to zero for at least the next two months. That’ll contribute to the $250 billion in sales the industry as a whole is predicted to lose this year. Still, with no debt to pay off until 2022, analysts reckon EasyJet is less vulnerable than lots of its rivals – rivals like US carriers American Airlines and United, which are expected to run out of cash in a matter of months (tweet this).

Zooming out: Chain reactions.
The plummeting demand hurting airlines is hurting the rest of the supply chain too: shares of Airbus – Europe’s biggest planemaker – sank 11% on Monday, and Boeing – its big US rival – initially plunged 12%. And since grounded jets don’t need any fuel, oil's suffering as well: the oil price hit a 17-year-low on Monday, as demand from airlines continues to tumble and Saudi Arabia and Russia continue to disagree over curbing supply.

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💬 Quote of the day

“If you keep on saying things are going to be bad, you have a good chance of becoming a prophet.”

– Isaac Bashevis Singer (a Polish-American writer)
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🤔 Q&A · RE: Hero To Zero

“If share buybacks return money to shareholders like dividends do, why has there been such strong objection to them recently?”

– Michael in California, USA

“While it’s true share buybacks return cash to shareholders, they don’t have the same effect on a company or its investors as dividends do. Share buybacks tend to boost a company’s share price (partly because they create more demand for them) and lower the number of its shares in circulation. The latter makes the company’s ‘earnings per share’ – a key profitability measure, calculated by dividing the total profit by the number of shares – look higher than it would without buybacks, which could unlock hefty bonuses for the firm’s executives. That probably wouldn’t sit well with folks in a time of crisis, hence an aversion to share buybacks. And since governments tend to earn less in taxes from buybacks than from dividends, they may not like the idea either, given the unprecedented amounts they’re spending.”

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🤜🤛 Get by with a little help from your friends

Keeping socially distant? Good. Feeling socially distant? Not so much. Let’s do what we gotta do to manage this thing, but let’s do it together – at one of our virtual events.

🌍 Global: Finimize Live AMA – 1.30pm GMT, April 1st
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🇭🇰 Hong Kong: US Election Explained – 9.00pm HKT, April 7th

⚡️ Lightning insight

The United States government owes $23 trillion – more than the country’s entire economy generates in a year. And one way it tries to finance some of that is via government bonds.

We’ve been talking about bonds a lot recently. So our analysts have created a new Pack to explain why they’re so important at times like this. You can find it here.

📚 What we're reading (that's not about coronavirus)

  • There are still corners of the internet not about coronavirus (The Outline)
  • Modern brands are turning everyday objects into statement pieces (The Sociology of Business)
  • Explaining the sudden rise of 8D audio (Mel)
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