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What's driving China's auto market?

In our Q1 State of the Industry Report we highlighted the slow growth currently forecasted for China's automotive market, with sales in 2027 and 2029 not predicted to approach the peak levels seen in 2017 and 2018.

This trajectory could be seen in 2023, where only three automakers, BYD, GEELY and LI Auto, met their sales targets.

However, it is interesting to note that the NEV (new energy vehicle) market grew by a remarkable 37.9%, driven in part by an 84.7% increase in demand for plug-in hybrids.

Growing demand of NEVs in China's market over 2023:

Of the 100 light vehicles sold in China in 2023, 36 were NEVs. This marks a significant increase from the 5% penetration in 2020 and 13% in 2021.

Further analysis reveals that 69% of NEVs sold in China in 2023 were BEVs, resulting in a 25% penetration rate for this category. Wards Intelligence forecasts that this penetration will continue to increase, and the market's mix will be close to 50% by 2034.

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Chris Liu is a Senior Analyst who covers China’s NEV market, consisting of battery-electric, plug-in hybrid, and fuel-cell vehicles. He primarily researches national policies driving electric vehicle (EV) adoption and charging infrastructure deployment.

Have a question on any of these topics that could do with an expert answer? Contact WardsAskAnAnalyst@informa.com.

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