What’s going on here? A drought in Vietnam is taking a toll on its robusta coffee bean crops, so the price of your morning espresso might soon give you a jolt. What does this mean? Vietnam is the second-biggest coffee producer in the world and the biggest grower of popular robusta beans. This year, the country’s drought is especially bitter: the worst in a decade, it also follows two straight years of lower coffee yields. Experts estimate that this year’s crop could fall as much as 10% short of the industry’s annual target. Already, that’s sent robusta futures to their highest point in nearly 50 years. It’s a jittery market, and with good reason. A frost in Brazil chilled the country’s production of arabica beans, causing those prices to percolate higher too – and contributing to a third consecutive year of worldwide coffee shortages. Why should I care? The bigger picture: Coffee is everything, in a way. Vietnam's drought and Brazil’s frost highlight the increasing impact of climate change on global agriculture. Significantly hotter, colder, or wetter weather means smaller harvests for many staple crops – and that, in turn, leads to higher food prices and inflation. One study even suggests that the climate crisis could result in an annual global food inflation increase of roughly three percentage points by 2035. Problem is, central banks often ignore food prices with the inflation gauges they target. That could change – but even if it does, their best tools are interest rate hikes, and those wouldn’t be very effective against price rises caused by falling crop yields. For you, personally: A little bean counting. Sure, climate change may keep making agricultural commodity prices more volatile and pushing them up over time. But it could also open up opportunities to invest in agricultural technology companies that can enhance farm productivity and grow food in indoor settings. |