Olive oil, coffee and even potatoes are among the dozens of crops also facing serious climate risks. Scientists have previously said that global heating drives a higher risk of simultaneous harvest failures across major crop-producing regions, threatening global food security. Researchers are scouring the planet for hardier varieties of common staples. The reasons for surging cocoa prices are complicated. The poor harvest has been driven by a mixture of underinvestment in ageing cacao plantations, poor planning and speculators, say experts, along with extreme weather supercharged by global heating. Last month, the World Weather Attribution confirmed that a February heatwave was made 4C hotter and 10 times more likely by human-caused global heating. Chocolate will not run out – despite admissions from major brands that bars are likely to shrink alongside price rises – but it is an early sign of what may await us as temperatures rise and food production becomes less predictable. To understand what is going on with the so-called “chocolate meltdown”, I spoke with Martijn Bron, a former head of cocoa trading for the commodity giant Cargill, about the reasons behind the huge spike in prices. “There is a large shortage of fresh cacao beans. Normally there is a global crop of about 5m tonnes. Now it’s about 0.5m tonnes less,” said Bron. “The market is nervous about whether these issues are a one-off perfect storm or something structural. If it is structural, this is a problem because it means you cannot easily do something about it and it may take much more time to recover, maybe five plus years. “One of the reasons why there is a deficit is ageing trees. What is the problem with ageing trees? Well, after about 20 years, the yield on cacao trees starts to go down. All the time you need to be planting new cacao trees in order to maintain your maximum yield and this hasn’t been done.” Higher prices could be good for farmers in the medium term as it may result in much needed investment in the sector, explained Bron, adding that prices were unlikely to fall soon. The cacao industry has long had problems with child labour and many farmers have been unable to afford to improve their climate resilience. This may be the opportunity to do so. Read more: |