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Good morning Voornaam,

The Clicks valuation has been a mystery for some time. Many a local investor has asked the question about how it can be justified. We know that high quality assets on the JSE trade at a premium (and arguably a higher multiple than they should), but even that story cannot last forever. After releasing some numbers that aren't that different from what came before, Clicks experienced a drop in its share price yesterday. Looking at the chart and reading some of the other clues in the announcement shows that it could be vulnerable over the next few months.

MTN has caught a break in Nigeria, with the regulator approving a tariff increase of 50%. Why wasn't it just done more evenly over a few years? These are the real questions. Still, it's good news for MTN!

In Mozambique, Grindrod's Port of Maputo business saw a slight decline in volumes in 2024. Against the really difficult political backdrop, that's actually pretty good I think!

In mining news, BHP is on track for full-year guidance despite a negative weather impact at one of the copper assets. At Jubilee, they can now restart the Roan facility as power has been secured.

To get these insights and more in the Nibbles, read Ghost Bites>>>

If you are a qualifying Black-Owned business looking for equity funding, don't sleep on the opportunity being offered by MIC Khulisani Ventures. After we released a podcast with full details at the end of 2024, the team has summarised the opportunity in a new article that includes a link to the podcast for those who missed it. You only have until the end of January to apply, so don't delay!

Looking for some inspiration for marketing strategies in your business? IKEA is a name that you probably already know, famous for its affordable furniture. But what you might not know is that the company sells more meatballs than anything else! Welcome to a strategy built around hungry customers. Dominique Olivier tells the story here>>>

If you haven't gotten there yet, the latest Magic Markets episode will give you plenty of details into how retail turnarounds work. These can be lucrative for those with a higher risk appetite. They can also be disastrous. Learn about the key things to look out for in this episode>>>

Have a great start to your week!

SATRIX: Low-risk high-reward - the low-volatility anomaly

Does taking higher risk always lead to higher returns? Or is there something to be said for seeking out lower volatility equity exposure, especially if it can generate similar overall returns? Nico Katzke of Satrix digs into the numbers to bring you this insightful piece on portfolio and risk strategy. Enjoy it here>>>

Ghost Wrap - five insights from December

Ghost Wrap: There were some great stories in December that are well worth keeping in mind in January. Italtile's share price needs a careful watch. Prosus is making major acquisitions again. Renergen is still dealing with teething issues - and a legal dispute as well. Metair is getting very little out of its Turkish business. Finally, will Bell Equipment shareholders kick themselves? I cover these topics in Ghost Wrap, brought to you by Forvis Mazars and available here>>>

MIC KHULISANI VENTURES - A game-changer for Black-Owned businesses in South Africa

MIC Khulisani Ventures is looking for Black-Owned business with high scalability and a commitment to growth. Equity funding is available and applications close at the end of January 2025. Get the details here>>>

GHOST BITES - Making sense of SENS on the local market

BHP is on track to achieve guidance. Clicks seems to have disappointed the market, perhaps based on retail comparable sales. MTN caught a break in Nigeria. Grindrod's Port of Maputo had a tough 2024. Jubilee has power again for Roan. Get the details in Ghost Bites>>>

DOMINIQUE OLIVIER - The wisdom of the meatball

The best salesperson in Swedish business IKEA’s history isn’t Sven or Astrid or even Nils - it’s the meatball! Since 1985, flatpack-furniture giant IKEA has sold more than a billion of its trademark Swedish meatballs every year. But how did a furniture company come to rely on meatballs to sell couches? The answer lies in consumer psychology. Dominique Olivier explains>>>

Unlock the Stock - KAL Group

Unlock the Stock: KAL Group joined the platform for the first time to talk about the performance and strategic focus areas in the broader agriculture industry. Enjoy the presentation and Q&A here>>>

MAGAnomics: Trump and the global economy

What impact will Trump’s presidency have on the global economy and emerging markets? Tune in to the latest episode of the No Ordinary Wednesday podcast for insights from Investec experts, Annabel Bishop (SA) and Ellie Henderson (UK).

International Business Snippet:

TL;DR: Netflix absolutely killed it. The share price jumped 14% in after-hours trading based on a beat of both revenue and profit. They now have over 300 million paid memberships, although Netflix plans to no longer disclose this number going forwards. Signing off on the 300 million milestone is rather poetic.

Revenue was up 16% year-on-year, while earnings per share more than doubled! Those are incredible numbers, accompanied by a raise of 2025 guidance.

Clearly, the business is working and working well. They have gotten the pricing right and the ad-supported tiers are accounting for a large number of sign-ups. When a platform business starts to literally print money, it's incredible to watch.

Our research in Magic Markets Premium this week is on JPMorgan, the banking GOAT that is a core part of my portfolio. If you're ready to give your US market knowledge a proper boost, then subscribe today with no minimum monthly commitment. It's worth it.

Magic Markets: The year ahead - buckle up!

Magic Markets: To kick off the year, we couldn’t resist talking about the major themes that have carried over from 2024 into a new calendar year. US – China relations, interest rates, frothiness in equity valuations – it’s all in here, along with a sobering discussion that gives context to the JSE performance last year vs. global alternatives. Find out more here>>>

Macroeconomic indicators

Strong subscriber numbers from Netflix has helped the US tech sector lead US markets higher overnight. The move is seeing some follow through in Europe where index futures are trading firmer in early trade.

Trump has announced a 10% increase in US tariffs to commence on the 1st of February. While the 10% increase is lower than the 60% figure he was campaigning on, we are seeing the Hang Seng and Shanghai Composite indices trading lower this morning.

The dollar has softened with US yields.

The JSE All-Share Index is expected to open slightly firmer this morning and the rand is trading at its best levels in two weeks.

Gold has continued to gain, supported by the softer dollar.

Oil prices are trading at their lowest levels in roughly a week after Trump said that the US would look to increase production of fossil fuels.

Traders will want to watch out for local CPI inflation data out this morning.

Key Indicators: USD/ZAR R18.50/$ | US 10yr 4.58% | Gold $2,755/oz | Platinum $952/oz | Brent Crude $78.54

As often as practically possible, insights from the IG Markets morning macro update by Shaun Murison will be featured here. Where this isn't possible, only indicators will be provided. If you want to learn more about trading, refer back to The Trader's Handbook, a podcast series that takes you through many of the important principles in trading.