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What 383 climate scientists told us about their fears for the future of our planet | The Guardian

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Greece has been struggling with forest fires that could not be controlled for 10 days on July 27, 2023.
11/05/2024

What 383 climate scientists told us about their fears for the future of our planet

Katharine Viner, editor-in-chief Katharine Viner, editor-in-chief
 

The Guardian is deeply committed to journalism about the environment. We have expanded our team considerably in recent years, adding new roles in the UK, US, Australia, Europe and the Amazon to produce a powerful and global team.

Guardian environment editor Damian Carrington has spent years interviewing the planet’s top climate scientists as part of his beat trying to make sense of rising global temperatures and what they mean for the future of the planet. In the past few years he noticed an increased sense of alarm among these experts about the reality of the climate emergency compared to targets discussed at climate negotiations. “Scientists were increasingly saying to me, ‘1.5C is never going to happen, it’s too late’,” Damian told our First Edition newsletter on Thursday.

In order to try to quantify the level of concern, Damian asked 843 contactable lead authors and review editors of every Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report since 2018 for their thoughts on the future of the planet. Hundreds replied. Their predictions and fears are harrowing.

Many expect global warming to hit 2.5C above preindustrial levels this century, way above internationally agreed targets. Many of the scientists were clearly furious at the lack of political action and foresee a “semi-dystopian” future, with famines, conflicts and mass migration driven by heatwaves, wildfires, floods and storms of an intensity and frequency far beyond those that have already struck. Only 6% think the internationally agreed 1.5C limit will be met.

The report represents a major intervention on the debate over 1.5C from the very people who have dedicated their lives to understanding and fighting the climate emergency. The series has had a huge response from our readers and beyond. The UN secretary general’s office said that the world’s scientists have been clear: we are on the verge of a climate abyss.

So what can we do? Writing in our opinion pages former key UN climate negotiator (and general inspiration) Christiana Figueres said that it would take a combination of “stubborn optimism” and “much more courageous collective action to turn the seemingly impossible into the new normal”. The scientists themselves gave Damian some pointers on the actions we can take today including, in this huge year of elections, voting for politicians who pledge to take strong climate measures.

The Guardian is at the forefront of warning about the urgency of the situation. But we also don’t want our readers to give up hope – we haven’t. Systemic change is vital but every individual’s response to this emergency can be, too. As our editorial on Wednesday noted: “Individual actions can seem futile given the magnitude of the task. But they can also build collective awareness, a sense that change is possible.”

Reporting like Damian’s takes time and investment. We can only do it because of the financial support of our readers. If you’d like to help fund more journalism like this, you can do so by clicking here. Thank you.

My picks

Palestinians continue to flee from Rafah due to Israel’s ground operation.

As tensions between the US and Israel increased over the military offensive on Rafah, Malak A Tantesh and Jason Burke reported powerfully on the growing humanitarian crisis in the southern Gazan city (above), now home to more than a million refugees who have fled the fighting further north. For Today in Focus, Michael Safi spoke to people on the ground in Rafah as they weighed up the decision to stay or leave the city.

Three sisters who raised their voices to protest against the treatment of women in Saudi Arabia have found their lives ruined by the regime in Riyadh. Tom Levitt told the devastating story of the Al-Otaibi siblings: one who is living under constant fear of arrest, one who is living in exile and another who was recently imprisoned for 11 years for “her choice of clothing and support for women’s rights”.

London’s 193-year-old Garrick Club has only ever admitted men. Now, thanks to Amelia Gentleman, who revealed in March that its members included top judges, politicians and even the king, London’s last male-only social club has finally voted to accept women. Amelia first wrote about the fight to accept female members almost a decade ago in this Long Read and has been leading on the story, which has had a considerable impact in Britain’s corridors of power.

As part of a new series exploring the scale of Europe’s housing crisis, Jon Henley travelled to the Netherlands to witness first-hand how the country is struggling to meet people’s needs, and heard a stark warning from the UN’s housing envoy that far-right parties across the continent stand ready to exploit the situation for political gain. Ashifa Kassam looked at how, even as they are scapegoated by populists, people of colour are disproportionately affected by a crisis that feeds further segregation and stigmatisation.

In a Guardian exclusive, Carmen Aguilar García, Sarah Marsh and Philip McMahon revealed a vast Chinese-operated web of fake online shops that took money and personal details from 800,000 people in Europe and US.

Simon Hattenstone’s final instalment in his series about the scandal of indeterminate-term prison sentences (known as IPPs) in England and Wales is an important read. He spoke with Marc Conway – who risked his life to stop the London Bridge terror attack – about why he feared that the deed could send him back to prison under the conditions of his 99-year sentence.

In some encouraging environment news, Australian scientists who spent two decades listening to the distinctive songs and calls of Antarctic blue whales – the largest that have ever lived – are delighted by hints of a resurgence in the species after numbers dwindled to just a few hundred.

The National Trust is a UK charity dedicated to preserving places of historic or natural beauty. It’s also become a focus for “anti-woke” culture warriors who keep trying to drag the cherished institution into divisive rows. This week Celia Richardson, the Trust’s communications director, wrote a brilliant opinion piece about how her organisation has worked to counter this kind of polarisation.

George Monbiot wondered why people obsess about false conspiracy theories and ignore actual conspiracies, so he interviewed a “believer” in his home town to find out. The result was a fascinating character study and a truly absorbing read.

Four Weddings and a Funeral – the low-budget romcom about Britain’s upper classes that came out of nowhere to become a huge hit – is 30 this year. The Guardian’s Ann Lee heard how it was made and costs were kept low, from waiting around for hours for the bus to borrowing “tails and black ties”.

Finally, this week the Met Gala took place in New York, an event which has become one of the most important nights of the year for designers to show off their most extraordinary creations. Our fashion team blogged some wild red carpet sights. Our fashion expert Jess Cartner-Morley summed up the cultural import of this “Super Bowl of fashion-entertainment”, writing that it shows us a “heat map of the connections between culture and entertainment, between the establishment and new money … these are the new corridors of soft power.” Marina Hyde was in equal parts bemused and enthralled by the spectacle.

One more thing … The Time is Always Now exhibition, at London’s National Portrait Gallery, has one week more to run. I thought it was wonderful. It features contemporary Black artists on the theme of the Black figure in art, with mesmerising works by some of my favourite British artists, including Lubaina Himid, Chris Ofili and Claudette Johnson. But it was Barbara Walker’s pictures that made the biggest impact. The artist forces you to consider what it really felt like to be a servant or enslaved person by reinterpreting Old Master paintings, whiting out everyone but the Black figure, who is drawn in beautiful and loving detail. As the Observer’s Laura Cumming wrote, “you are now looking (only) at the overlooked”. It takes my breath away just thinking about it.

Your Saturday starts here

Ravinder Bhogal’s grilled cos lettuce and peas with feta.

Cook this | Grilled cos lettuce and peas with feta

Barbecuing or griddling a lettuce will take your salad from ordinary to extraordinary, says Ravinder Bhogal, giving the whole dish a smoky, inviting warmth. Try cooking it using our new Feast app which is available now on iOS, with Android coming soon.

A woman walks past a polling station during local elections in London.

Listen to this | Politics Weekly UK

Our UK politics podcast is going thrice-weekly with an extra episode each week from within Westminster hosted by UK politics editor Pippa Crerar and correspondent Kiran Stacey. This week the pair picked over the Conservatives’ terrible results in the English local elections. Beyond the UK we also have Politics Weekly America with Jonathan Freedland as well as our Australian Politics podcast.

Bookmarks.

Sign up to this | Bookmarks

There’s also a new look for Bookmarks, our weekly newsletter for book lovers. In tomorrow’s edition, we’ll look at the boom in audiobooks and get reading recommendations from Colm Tóibín. Sign up here to get it.

And finally …

The Guardian’s crosswords and Wordiply are here to keep you entertained throughout the weekend.

 

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