Barloworld rides the cycle lower

Good morning Voornaam,

The final fun fact about Turkey this week is a very simple one: Metair's sale of their Turkish business is key to the group being able to survive without major pain for shareholders in the form of a capital raise. With Metair having now released results, it's clear that they are barely treading water at the moment. The sale will do wonders for the balance sheet. For their sake, I hope it goes ahead as quickly as possible.

This sets the tone for a generally bearish day of news. I've written quite a bit about disruption in the new car industry. CMH's latest guided numbers suggest that I might be right, with a substantial drop in HEPS. We need to wait and see what management says when detailed results come out, particularly about the threat of Chinese brands.

Over at Barloworld, they are dealing with a decline in the mining sector in South Africa and the resultant impact on the equipment business. At least they have Mongolia as a major highlight, even if the Russian business is causing considerable headaches.

These are just some of the highlights of a really busy day of local news. It also included several updates in the property sector from Burstone, Emira and Safari Investments, as well as disappointing growth at Old Mutual and the news of FirstRand absorbing the clients and staff of HSBC South Africa. 

Get it all in Ghost Bites, your one-click SENS summary at this link>>>

For traders, managing risk exposure is critical. There are a variety of ways to do it, ranging from position sizing and stop losses through to giving yourself a better chance by learning how to read charts. In the latest episode of The Trader's Handbook, I spoke with Shaun Murison of IG Markets South Africa about these concepts. The full podcast and detailed transacript is available here>>>


As is the norm each Friday, DealMakers is here with your summaries of the week's news in local M&A, local corporate finance and deals in Africa. There's also a piece on recent developments in shareholder protection.

Have a great Friday and I look forward to seeing you on Sunday morning for Ghost Mail Weekender.

FEATURED: The Trader's Handbook Ep 7

IG Markets Episode 7: Building on previous discussions around technical trading indicators, we explored the concept of volatility and its significance in managing risk. We talked about stop losses, leverage and position sizing. We also included a piece on support and resistance lines. Learn all about it at this link>>>

FEATURED: Index-tracking and the balance between returns and fees

Satrix: The importance of fees in an investment strategy cannot be emphasised enough, especially when you consider the power of compounding. In this piece, Satrix explains how index-tracking strategies help balance returns and fees. Find it here>>>

FEATURED: How to Interpret Profits

Magic Markets: Doing your own research isn't easy, especially when you consider how complicated financial statements are. In this episode, we explain the most important parts of the income statement and how to interpret it in a useful way. Get it here>>>

FEATURED: A responsible investing roadmap

Investec Wealth & Investment International has launched a comprehensive guidebook on responsible investing. In the latest episode of the No Ordinary Wednesday, Jeremy Maggs speaks to the authors, Boipelo Rabothata and Maxine Gray. Enjoy it here>>>

Ghost Bites - local company news:

Ghost Bites: The latest on Burstone, Barloworld, CMH, Emira, FirstRand, Metair, Old Mutual and Safari Investments along with numerous Nibbles in Ghost Bites here>>>

Ghost Wrap:

Ghost Bites: Get up to date on the performance and latest news at Sibanye-Stillwater, Truworths, Finbond and Barloworld in just a few minutes. Brought to you by Forvis Mazars, you can enjoy Ghost Wrap here>>>

Dominique Olivier: Forever in blue jeans, babe

Dominique Olivier: Levi Strauss takes a lot of credit for inventing jeans. That's not quite true, although the plucky German entrepreneur certainly played the key role in taking them to the people. Dominique Olivier tells the story of everyone's staple wardrobe item here>>>

International Business Snippet:

Accenture has now released results and the market seemed to like them, with the share price up 5.6%. That's happy news for me as a shareholder there. Although full-year revenue was up just 1%, GAAP operating margin was up 110 basis points to 14.8%. Margin expansion is key to the thesis here. Guidance for 2025 is modest, with expected GAAP EPS growth of 5% to 8%.

Costco dipped ever so slightly after releasing earnings, although that is still pretty impressive in the context of the crazy run in the share price this year. The problem is that they beat earnings estimates and yet the market didn't put more energy into the share price, which tells me that the thing really is overcooked now.

We've covered both these companies before in Magic Markets Premium. To add to the library of research, our focus this week is on McDonald's. Has the company lost its edge in providing the cheapest fast food around? You'll find out in the latest report for our subscribers this week.

IG Morning Call: daily macroeconomic update

The IG Markets daily update will be back on Monday. Indicators have been updated below.

Key Indicators: USD/ZAR R17.21/$ | US 10yr 3.81% | Gold $2,669/oz | Platinum $1,021/oz | Brent Crude $71.09

The macroeconomic update is based on IG's morning call update