Don't chase hot commodity stocks

Good Morning Voornaam,

What's your flavour - macroeconomics or stock picking? How about both? Regardless of your style, there's something in Magic Markets for you. Recent shows include Episode 117 with macroeconomics and geopolitical expert Rachel Ziemba, as well as Episode 116 with Barry Dumas of Trive South Africa where we discussed Aston Martin, a stock with a share price chart that is nowhere near as pretty as the cars. Pick your poison!

And for a podcast with a different theme entirely, you can enjoy Ghost Wrap with the latest updates on Remgro, Steinhoff, York Timber, RFG Holdings, CA Sales Holdings, Master Drilling, Bell Equipment, Gemfields and Astoria. Ghost Wrap is brought to you by Mazars.

The dividend won't save you

There are two types of investors in the market: those who have made the mistake of buying mining stocks at the top of the cycle, and those who still will. The trick is to learn from the mistake, particularly when that juicy dividend you were expecting won't even offset the drop in the share price.

Thungela is the latest exam ple, a retail investor favourite that created exceptional wealth after Anglo American gifted it to shareholders. Those who bought right at the beginning have made a killing. Those who bought recently have been killed, with the market worried about Thungela's plan to execute a large acquisition in Australia. In fairness to management, Transnet just signed off on its worst year since 1996. Much like Bafana Bafana, it's literally been downhill since that year. I can therefore understand a desire to look beyond our borders to countries with the basics in place, like a working railway.

Speaking of Australia, Woolworths has finalised the sale of David Jones and will receive the proceeds from that deal in June or thereabouts. Murray & Roberts has sold a small, loss-making Australian business for just AUD1. Hopefully Thungela will have more luck in Australia than other South Afr ican corporates have had.

Other news yesterday included the world's most confusing infographic from ADvTECH, a trading update from Datatec, an emerald auction result from Gemfields, Brait receiving proceeds from the Premier listing, updates on the Distell and Mediclinic transactions (both of which are relevant to Remgro), a debt raise by Tharisa and an equity raise by Vukile alongside a pre-close update that tells an exceptionally promising story about retail properties. We also saw an update from Fairvest on its portfolio strategy and the planned tilt towards retail property exp osure.

It was clearly a very busy day. You can get up to speed on all of it with a single click by reading Ghost Bites this morning>>>

Hurwitz in the hot seat

Transaction Capital CEO David Hurwitz responded to my comments in Ghost Mail last week about Transaction Capital and offered me the opportunity to discuss them directly with him and ask any questions I like. I asked if we could make it a recorded podcast, to which he graciously agreed.

The result is a raw, unedited, nearly hour-long conversation about what happened at Transaction Cap ital and what the future holds. If you are ready to learn, this is for you.

Find Episode 10 of Ghost Stories with David Hurwitz at this link>>>

The calm after the storm?

It sounds ridiculous, but right now it's a good thing that there is no new bad news about international banks. Yes, that's an achievement at the moment. Safe haven assets like gold and the US dollar eased as the risk-off sentiment waned. But despite this, TreasuryONE notes that the rand was slightly weaker on the day.

It may be the calm after the story, but it may also be the calm before the storm. There is the opportunity for new information in the market later this week, including 4th quarter GDP out of the US on Thursday. There are also Fed speakers scheduled this week, with the Fed's favourite measure of inflation (PCE) due on Friday. Locally, the South African rate decision is due on Thursday.

Unlock the Stock this week

If you move very quickly, you can still register for PPC at 12pm today. If you're too late for that, then be sure to register for CA Sales Holdings, a fascinating mid-cap that will be on the platform on Thursday at 12pm.

Have a great day!

Ghost Bites (ADvTECH | Datatec | Fairvest | Gemfields | Murray & Roberts | Premier Group + Brait | Remgro + Distell + Mediclinic | Tharisa | Thungela | Vukile | Woolworths)

Monday was a busy day, with a variety of updates across several sectors. The dividend at Thungela was probably the news of the day, doing nothing to stop the slide in that share price.

 

In this week's Ghost Wrap, we deal with investment holding companies, FMCG, mining services, mining and primary agriculture companies. Brought to you by Mazars, this is your whirlwind summary of JSE news.

 

Raw, unedited and getting to the crux of key matters around what has happened at Transaction Capital and perhaps most importantly, what the future holds. CEO David Hurwitz is in the hot seat.

 

Global macroeconomics and geopolitical expert Rachel Ziemba joined us on Magic Markets to talk about a wide variety of topics, including global perceptions of South Africa.

You should expect us in your inbox Monday – Friday. If you don’t receive an email, please check your spam, or junk folder and “move us” into your primary inbox to ensure you get it each morning.



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