By Michael Shepherd - May 19, 2022
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Good morning from Augusta. There are 26 days until Maine's June primaries.

What we're watching today

The Maine senator is going further in a bid to codify abortion-rights protections. There is no still no path forward to passing them. Fresh off a weekend trip to Ukraine and other parts of Europe, Sen. Susan Collins has returned to Washington and the issue of abortion. The right to abortion is in jeopardy across the country after a leaked draft decision showed a conservative majority of the Supreme Court ready to overturn Roe v. Wade.

Collins, one of two Republicans who support abortion rights, is at the center of the conflict here in many ways. Her 2018 vote for Justice Brett Kavanaugh came with predictions that he would not overturn Roe, something he now looks poised to do. The Maine senator has called Kavanaugh siding with the possible majority on the issue was "inconsistent" with what he told her in private, but she has avoided discussing the leaked decision in finer detail so far.

The senator also voted last week alongside all other Republicans and Sen. Joe Manchin, D-West Virginia, against a Democratic bill to codify protections after chalk protests at her Bangor home, saying it went too far. She has been working on a narrower effort with Sen. Lisa Murkowski, R-Alaska, to codify basic abortion-rights protections.

Democrats have not jumped on board, saying it may not halt restrictive state laws such as the one in Texas that the high court has upheld within the framework of Roe v. Wade. Even if Democrats joined that effort, more Republicans probably would not, leaving it short of the 60 votes needed to break the Senate filibuster.

In the past two weeks, Collins has been working with Sen. Tim Kaine, D-Virginia, on a similar bill. On Wednesday, she said it would codify Roe and a later decision on abortion rights as well as other past high-court decisions shielding access contraceptives and providing more clarity on what constitutes an “undue burden” on abortion rights.

That would go further than her earlier bill. Even though Collins expressed hope that Murkowski would support the bill, she still nodded to the filibuster looming over this latest attempt. The text could be released as soon as next week.

“We'll be talking to others of our colleagues, but whether we can get to 60 remains to be seen,” she said.

The high court's decision could come as soon as June. Kaine has pitched the effort with Collins as important even if it does not succeed, telling Politico the notion that a bipartisan majority of the Senate supports specific abortion-rights protections could hold value with justices.

We have gotten a preview of the political environment that would come once high court hands down the decision that is expected. Collins will be the focus of criticism from her left. At the same time, Democrats may have more incentive to deal with her on the issue. But however you play things out, filibuster is still the problem here for those who want to codify protections.

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Campaign news and notes

— Maine's 2022 legislative races are on another short list rating them the most competitive in the country. Sabato's Crystal Ball put both the House and Senate on a list of only four toss-up legislative chambers across the country. It noted that Maine's penchant for ticket-splitting could lead to legislative gains for Republicans even if Gov. Janet Mills fends off former Gov. Paul LePage. Other forecasts over the last two months have made similar conclusions.

— Mills continues a busy week of public events. She will be at a Vassalboro ribbon-cutting ceremony this afternoon on a project that will restore alewives to China Lake for the first time since the 1700s.

— As for her rival, LePage has not given notice of any public events since the Republican convention nearly three weeks ago. Last week, he was in eastern Hancock County on business and other visits with Rep. Billy Bob Faulkingham, R-Winter Harbor.

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What we're reading

— The Maine Republican Party's first ad against Gov. Janet Mills attacked a lesson explaining transgender identity to children that was posted on the Department of Education's website. The video was removed by the department this week after officials determined it should not be recommended as part of kindergarten instruction.

— A frustrated group of Maine lawmakers raised the idea Wednesday of gaining access to confidential child welfare case files as part of an ongoing review of the system. The state looked resistant to such a proposal.

— "No, Maine students aren’t using litter boxes in school." You're just going to have to read the story to find out why it was necessary to write.

— Rising housing costs were one of the top causes of record homelessness found in Maine's annual survey. Read our housing coverage.

— A magazine called Auburn the "the YIMBYest city in America." If you applied its housing goal to New York City, it would mean 2 million more residents.

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Photo of the day

The Royal River flows over the Bridge Street Dam on Wednesday in Yarmouth. The Army Corps of Engineers will decide this year on the viability and cost of removing this and one other nearby dam which have impacted the ability of migratory fish to gain access upstream. The river has been dammed since the 1700s. (AP photo by Robert F. Bukaty)

📷 Lead photo: Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Kentucky, center, and from left, Sens. Susan Collins, R-Maine, John Cornyn, R-Texas, and John Barrasso, R-Wyoming, prepare to meet with Swedish media at the Grand Hotel in Stockholm on Sunday, May 15, 2022. (TT News Agency photo by Anders Wiklund via AP)

❌ Corrections: The Wednesday newsletter misdefined a state measure of child deaths. It tracks those associated with abuse or neglect and those that come after a history of family involvement with the child welfare system. It also had an incorrect photo caption.

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