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| Thursday, August 1, 2024 |
| It's Commanders Day! |
| Before diving into Fantasy analysis for each team, I'll present a brief overview containing their offensive ranks in my base line team projections as well as any notable coaching or offensive line changes. |
| Projected Offensive Plays – (9th) |
| Projected Passing TDs – 20.5 (28th) |
| Projected Rushing TDs – 20.5 (8th) |
| Notable coaching changes: |
| Hired Dan Quinn as head coachHired Kliff Kingsbury as offensive coordinatorHired Joe Whitt Jr. as defensive coordinator |
| Essentially, the entire coaching staff is new. Quinn brings Whitt Jr. over from Dallas, where those two found tremendous success defensively. Quinn worked as the Cowboys DC, while Whitt Jr. was the secondary/defensive passing game coordinator. Whitt Jr. has been coaching in the NFL since 2007, and this is his first opportunity to work as a defensive coordinator. |
| As Quinn gets a second crack at head coaching, he will be joined by another coach in search of a career resurgence. Kingsbury spent his 2023 football season working as the Senior Offensive Assistant at USC. What changed for the Trojans in 2023? The pace of play was up, even more noticeably so in neutral situations (score within six points). That was the only clear change that I found that felt like an actual signal of Kingsbury's influence. It's possible that he influenced the fact that the percentage of USC's total touchdowns that came via passing touchdowns dropped to just 50%. Kingsbury's offenses have typically been run-heavy when in scoring distance. |
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| Maybe it's an Austin Ekeler tweet, we have real training camp buzz! It's August, baby! |
| I'm projecting Kingsbury's offense to produce one of the lowest passing touchdown totals in the NFL. Jadyen Daniels passed for 40 touchdowns at LSU in 2023, but his pass-to-rush touchdown ratio the year prior was 17 to 11. He scored double-digit rushing touchdowns in each of his final two seasons. Rookie quarterbacks often don't produce high passing touchdown rates, something that absolutely can be said about Kingsbury's NFL quarterbacks to date. His four years with Arizona produced a 91 to 78 pass-to-rush touchdown ratio and topped out at 27 passing scores in any single season. |
| Notable offensive line changes |
| Released veteran left tackle (three-year starter on this line) Charles Leno Jr.Lost center Nick Gates in free agencyDrafted tackle Brandon Coleman in Round 3Signed center Tyler Biadasz and guard Nick Allgretti |
| PFF graded Leno Jr. as Washington's best pass blocker and second-best offensive lineman in 2023. The one lineman who graded out better was 2021 Round 2 selection Sam Cosmi, who has developed into one of the NFL's best guards. He'll be joined on the interior by quality free agency acquisitions. Allegretti only played 80 regular season snaps but did fill in as a serviceable starting left guard for the Kansas City Chiefs for the AFC Championship and Super Bowl games. Allegretti is unproven, but he has performed well when given opportunities. Biadasz has served as the full-time starting center for the Cowboys in each of the past three seasons and never registered a PFF grade below 60 in a season. |
| This offensive line could be decent in 2024. Left tackle is a question mark, and there's little familiarity or continuity, but there are enough quality pieces to warrant some optimism. The presumed starter at left tackle is 10-year vet Cornelius Lucas. Lucas has been a member of five NFL teams in 10 years, but he's found a home in Washington for the past four. He has experience at both left and right tackle, with his most recent and his best (2020, not 2023) experience both coming on the left side. Ideally, Lucas will be able to hold down the fort while the rookie gets to take a "redshirt" year, but it's good to know that Washington does have Coleman available if injury strikes. This offensive line has options! |
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| Jayden Daniels is a unique quarterback |
| I will not bury the lede, Daniels has a glaring red flag. |
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| I clipped the list at the Lamar Jackson/Josh Rosen divide intentionally to jump scare you and further emphasize Daniels' standing here. Sorry about that! I wasn't going to be able to fit the whole tweet into one screen shot anyway, which is a problem that I run into quite often. |
| I went for the jump scare because I want you to take this seriously. There's risk involved with rostering Daniels. This offense might be a train wreck. I think the offensive line will be better, but that outcome is dependent on unproven players performing well. The offensive line uncertainty is another reason why I ended up projecting this team for more rush volume than I had expected. When Daniels felt pressure at LSU, he scrambled nearly one-third of the time. |
| Daniels scrambled 32% of the time when pressured in 2023. Among Round 1 QBs drafted since 2016, he is the only with a single-season rate above 20%. Daniels topped that rate in four separate seasons. Below, you'll find how his career scramble rate under pressure compares other recent Round 1 dual-threat QBs. |
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| This is, of course, the primary Fantasy appeal that entices us to believe in Daniels. I drafted seven start-up Superflex Dynasty teams with my brother this summer, and we drafted Daniels in Round 3 in two of those leagues. I will have even more exposure in season-long formats, where drafters seem more afraid of the uncertainty involved with the rookie's projection. The rushing upside is immense. The propensity for running into improvisational sacks is also immense. While I expect Washington to play with pace and see the potential for a high number of total plays produced in the Commanders offense, I absolutely also am prepared to take an L if the train derails because Daniels is continually taking negative plays and digging holes that are too deep to climb out of without the help of Malik Nabers, Brian Thomas Jr., and an awesome offensive line. |
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| If investing in Daniels or any part of this offense, you might want a back-up plan. Justin Herbert and Geno Smith are my preferred pairs with Daniels, as I believe there's upside for them to be more than just a back-up plan. Maybe Trevor Lawrence is that answer for you. I play to win, and I often leave myself a bit thin on contingency plans as I chase upside and try to win at every spot when building my Fantasy rosters. This is one scenario where I really do feel a need for insurance. Because you better believe that I want in on the magic of a Daniels breakout season. The upside is massive. We truly have not seen scramble rates like these during the time that have the data available, and that timeframe encompasses the careers of some of the absolute best NFL QB rushers. |
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| The upside is massive. Dating back to 1970, 74% of quarterbacks who averaged 6+ rushes per game turned in top-12 Fantasy QB per-game production. The group average (19.1 points) would have ranked as the QB5 in 2023! The rookies from that group averaged 18.5, and two averaged over 20. There's upside for Daniels to be one of the top Fantasy scorers at the QB position as a rookie. |
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| The only quarterback who I have projected for more rushing attempts per game than Daniels is Jalen Hurts. The only who project for more Fantasy points per game are Hurts, Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson, Anthony Richardson, C.J. Stroud, and Joe Burrow. Daniels actually sits just ahead of Dak Prescott and Jordan Love on a per-game basis, and I have both players projected for gaudy passing numbers. The rushing projection is just too strong! |
| And if the offensive line does hold up, we may see Daniels pick up where he left off in 2023. After ranking 58th in PFF's pass blocking grade in 2022, LSU posted the 11th-best mark in 2023. While enjoying a career-low pressure rate, Daniels increased his passing touchdown total from 17 to 40 and cut his sack total down from 45 to 21. He was incredible in 2023. Even with 15 fewer scrambles and 51 fewer total rushes, Daniels created way more yardage on the ground. |
| He was awesome as a passer, too, Daniels wasn't only a product of his receivers. His off-target rate (which is influenced by the amount of separation that a receiver creates, no stat perfectly isolates ability and eliminates the influence of circumstance) was a career-low, even though his average depth of target rose from 7.9 yards in 2022 to 10.2 in 2023. Daniels had a career off-target rate above 30% on passes that traveled 15 or more yards in the air past the line of scrimmage before he posted a 13.3% rate in 2023. That was the third-best single-season rate of any QB drafted in Round 1 since 2016. |
| The sack-to-pressure rate gives me some pause on Daniels. His performance as a passer in 2023 does -- to me, at least -- inspire confidence that he has the potential to be better at facilitating an NFL offense than Justin Fields, the nearest to Daniels at the bottom of the Round 1 sack-to-pressure rate leaderboard. |
| Which pass-catchers might step up? |
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| Terry McLaurin has the highest median projection among Washington's pass-catchers, and still, he ranks just 31st. That's his median projection, which is really troubling, because McLaurin has been a reliable source of Fantasy points. The problem has been upside. I'm not sure that he offers much upside, and his median projection has shrunk in a crowded Commanders offense that isn't expected to produce much volume through the air. |
| The crowded part may truly be a back-breaker for the potential Fantasy value of anyone other than Daniels. While Kliff Kingsbury's Arizona offenses targeted the wide receiver at a high rate, the distribution was fairly flat. I have each of McLaurin, Jahan Dotson, Luke McCaffrey, Zach Ertz, and Austin Ekeler projected for a double-digit target share, and Ben Sinnott's rate is nine percent. There are honestly a lot of mouths to feed, assuming that Ekeler and Ertz are going to be relevant factors. I'm not feeling good about McLaurin's projection. |
| If looking for hope from previous WR1's in Kingsbury's system, DeAndre Hopkins did account for a 29.4% target share in his first season with Kingsbury. But the two years that followed brought his lowest target rates since his first two seasons as a pro. It's also interesting to me that Hopkins' aDOT dropped noticeably while in Kingsbury's offenses but then bounced back in a huge way in 2023. I bring this up because Marquise Brown's single season with Kingsbury resulted in the lowest aDOT and target per route run rate of his career. |
| McLaurin had a 22% target share in 2023, which was actually a career-low. He's been between 22-25.5% in each of the past four seasons, during which he's reached 200+ PPR points 100% of the time and 230+ PPR points 0% of the time. Maybe Daniels will be the one to unlock his upside. I wish he had an offensive coordinator who inspired more confidence. |
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| The pace of play increase will be nice and may be enough to elevate the passing volume numbers beyond what my median projections expect. Those projections are informed by my brain, and I have to admit that I'm worried about the infrastructure in Washington. I created a Twitter thread detailing which factors influence offensive play volume , and if being able to match that recipe were a true litmus test the Commanders would not pass it. I worry about Washington's talent on defense similarly to the defensive line. There is talent, it could work, but that outcome will be dependent on several players exceeding expectations. |
| I don't feel confident that Washington's defense will succeed in getting opponents off of the field on third downs. I don't feel confident in the run game. Kingsbury's situation-neutral pass rates are right in line with the league average. His 'go for it' rate on fourth-down is just above the league average. The only factor that stands out is pace, but it does stand out in a big way. |
| The following excerpt is from Pat Thorman's 2024 Pace Preview on Establishtherun.com: |
| "While it's unknown how consistently efficient the new Commanders offense will be — and it almost certainly will be significantly more run-heavy — we can bank on it being faster. Over the last three seasons, Washington has finished 20th, 22nd, and 31st in situation-neutral pace. They spit out only the 19th-most plays per game last season, despite passing at the highest rate while games remained close. Over his four seasons with the Cardinals, new Commanders OC Kliff Kingsbury had the league's fastest-paced offense. It also led in no-huddle rate by a mile. From 2020 through 2022, Arizona ran the fourth-, fourth-, and sixth-most overtime-adjusted plays per game. |
| Beyond Kingsbury's preferred offensive pace, the Commanders project to generally produce up-tempo contests. Their defense remains pass-rush deficient on the edge and unreliable in coverage on the perimeter. They drafted a big-play quarterback second overall and imported veteran pass-catching back Austin Ekeler, who has experience playing in fast-paced offenses. Washington won't chuck it around as much as last season, especially in the early going, but that doesn't mean their games won't be fruitful for fantasy." |
| Pat (a fantastic follow on Twitter) also added this: |
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| I have the Commanders projected for the ninth-most offensive plays. And still, McLaurin is the only WR who projects for enough volume to be useful in Fantasy. And he's outside of the top-30 wide receivers in my projections. Neither RB projects for top-30 Fantasy production at their position. I'm fine with taking a shot on one in drafts if you feel conviction that they'll separate from the other, but I don't feel convicted about either Austin Ekeler or Brian Robinson. |
| Brian Robinson's Fantasy output was... unexpected. We'll go with unexpected. |
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| After drawing 12 targets in 12 games as a rookie, Brian Robinson turned 43 targets into 368 receiving yards and four touchdowns in Year 2. He scored a 51-yard touchdown on a broken play where he went untouched. In that same game, Robinson had a 48-yard catch-and-run on a nearly identical play where the same defender was responsible for him but bit on a Sam Howell scramble and left Robinson wide open. He gained 17.9 PPR points on those two plays alone. Another of his touchdowns was appeared to be targeted for Logan Thomas, but Robinson intercepted it. |
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| Robinson's Year 2 brought clear improvement from his rookie season, but I'm not sure how much of his Fantasy output is sustainable going forward. It's absolutely noteworthy that his target share doubled, but I also have to mention that his route participation was still only 29.6%. I doubt that Robinson will increase that in a meaningful way with Ekeler in the picture. And really, the receiving improvements were the most noteworthy from Robinson's Year 2 profile. His rushing efficiency didn't improve in a significant way. |
| Outside of Daniels, the players who I am the most interested in drafting from this Commanders team are his fellow rookies. Neither Luke McCaffrey or Ben Sinnott project for enough receiving volume to offer any semblance of consistency, but there's enough target ambiguity that either could conceivably carve out an exciting role. Of the two, Sinnott is the one who excited me the most when researching their collegiate data and film. He might be freaking awesome. He looks the part to me, and his analytical profile was strong. McCaffrey's analytical profile was decent, but I couldn't help but wonder if the way that he was winning in his Rice tape would translate against NFL competition. We will likely have a relatively quick answer to that wonder, as I'm expecting Kingsbury to regularly employ three-receiver sets. McCaffrey could see regular reps (probably mostly from the slot) early in the season. |
| I hope that Zach Ertz doesn't block Sinnott's shine, but that's kinda what he does. He was keeping a second-year Trey McBride off of the field last year before getting injured. Ertz had a team-high 21% target share in 11 healthy games with Kingsbury calling plays in 2021. We can't assume anything about Sinnott's 2024 role. |
| I sure do hope that I'm wrong about this offense. Daniels is the only Commanders player who I feel optimistic about offering realistic league-winning potential in 2024. |
| I'll be back in your inbox every weekday with a new team preview during the first week of August! Friday, we will be covering the Philadelphia Eagles. If you have any feedback on the team-by-team previews or any questions about the upcoming teams, feel free to send them my way. |
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