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Wednesday, August 28, 2024
There's a funny thing about Fantasy players and the way we react to prospects. When they're tearing up the minors, we spend hours, days, and weeks bellyaching about how we can't wait for them to get the call to the majors. And if they don't make an immediate, day-one impact, all that excitement dissipates almost immediately.
I bring this up to note that you probably heard a lot less about Jacob Wilson making his return from the IL Tuesday than you did when he initially got called up. That'll often happen with prospects who flame out in their first taste of the majors, but that isn't exactly what happened with Wilson. Not at all, in fact. Wilson got a hit in his first and, before Tuesday, only major-league plate appearance before suffering a hamstring injury while running the bases. That injury kept him out for more than a month, and he returned to the majors with a lot less hype around him.
But in this instance, Wilson never stopped hitting. He's still unproven at the MLB level, but during his seven-game minor-league rehab assignment, he went 9 for 23 with three doubles and just two walks in 26 plate appearances, almost exactly what he was doing when we all got excited about his call up. 
At the time, I was personally a bit skeptical about Wilson's chances of being an impact player for Fantasy, as I wrote about in the FBT Newsletter at the time. The short version is that profiles built around making a lot of mediocre contact don't tend to be great for Fantasy unless they come with some speed or play in very good lineups – even when Luis Arraez is contending for batting titles, he tends to be a pretty fringe Fantasy starter. But if you could get a free Luis Arraez on the waiver wire, you'd be pretty excited about that, wouldn't you? And, there's always the chance that the 22-year-old Wilson might have a path to even more value than that, even if it's not the most likely outcome. 
Which is all to say, yeah, I think Wilson is still worth getting excited about. And if you're in one of the 72% of CBS Fantasy leagues where he is still available, you should certainly at least consider adding him right now. 
Wednesday's waiver targets
Jack Leiter, SP, Rangers (28%) – Skepticism is warranted, but let's not worry about that for a second. Let's just allow ourselves an opportunity to get excited about Leiter's second stint in the majors, because he's been very exciting down in Triple-A lately. As Nick Pollack of PitcherList.com noted Tuesday, Letier's fastball has been playing up lately, and he averaged 98.6 mph with it in his most recent start, with elite non-velocity characteristics to go along with it. Consistency has been an issue for Leiter, but he has a 2.57 ERA with 63 strikeouts in 42 innings over his past nine starts and absolutely has difference-making upside in the majors if he is on. Here is where we note that he gave up 17 earned runs in 9.1 innings over his three MLB starts during his last try, so we certainly know how things can go wrong. But it's fun to dream, isn't it? 
Yoan Moncada, 3B, White Sox (9%) – Moncada will resume his rehab assignment Wednesday at Triple-A, as he tries to salvage something from what has been a totally lost season. He hasn't played since April due to an adductor strain and then suffered a setback during a subsequent rehab assignment in July. Moncada hasn't been a difference-maker in Fantasy for a while, and he'll be returning to one of the most hopeless offenses of the century in Chicago, but I still think there could be a useful Fantasy option here if he's healthy. 
Jose Tena, SS, Nationals (4%) – Tena wasn't a name that garnered much hype when he was in the minors, and he was mostly an afterthought when the Nationals acquired him for Lane Thomas at the trade deadline. But maybe that says more about the people doing the overlooking than it does about Tena, who has hit .298/.356/.509 with 23 homers and 15 steals in 120 career games at Triple-A and has been quite good in his time in the majors, too. After homering as part of a two-hit game Tuesday, he is now hitting .314/.340/.451 in the majors, with a very manageable 20.4% strikeout rate and pretty solid underlying stats – including a .344 xwOBA, a well-above-average mark. Can he keep it up? I have my doubts, but if you're looking for 3B or SS help in a deeper league, Tena is worth a look. 
Manuel Rodriguez, RP, Rays (3%) – The first save with Pete Fairbanks on the IL went to Edwin Uceta, and that led Fantasy players rushing in his direction. We should have known better; this is the Rays, after all. Rodriguez recorded his second save in a row Tuesday, and in between, worked the ninth inning in consecutive games. That's not to say they won't pivot again, either back to Uceta or to someone else. But if I'm looking for saves in Tampa, Rodriguez is the first place I'm looking. Especially with Uceta working the sixth inning in consecutive appearances. 
News and Notes
Finally some good news! Kyle Tucker began sprinting and is close to running the bases. Once he does that, Tucker should be ready for a rehab assignment.
Fernando Tatis will face live pitching soon. He's been out since late June with a stress reaction in his right thigh. It sounds like he might even be a bit ahead of Tucker, though I'd be surprised if either was back within the next week or so. 
Rafael Devers was out of the lineup Tuesday due to soreness in both of his shoulders. It's something he's been battling the entire summer.
Robbie Ray was placed on the IL with a left hamstring strain. He's eligible to return on September 10, though that's certainly not guaranteed at this point. If you have the roster spot to play with, he's a fine stash, but there just isn't very much time left for him to get back at this point. 
Nick Lodolo was placed on the IL with a left middle finger sprain, which apparently is related to a blister he dealt with earlier in the season and could explain why his curveball has been so much less effective. That's a reason to not give up on Lodolo in the long run, though I don't know if I have any expectations for him the rest of the season. 
Christian Yelich is expected to need three months of recovery time following a microdiscectomy. Hopefully, he'll be ready for the start of next season. 
Joe Ryan will not return in the regular season. He was moved to the 60-day IL with a Grade 2 teres major strain.
Bo Bichette fielded grounders on Tuesday. He's been out since late July with a right calf strain, but could be back in the next few weeks and could really use a good finish to what has otherwise been a nightmare season. 
All three of Ketel Marte, Christian Walker, and Gabriel Moreno hit in the batting cage on Tuesday. The Diamondbacks could be back to full health very soon. 
Grayson Rodriguez threw from approximately 90 feet Tuesday. He's been on the IL since August 7 with a right lat strain and is probably still multiple weeks away. 
Brenton Doyle has missed two straight with leg soreness.
Yu Darvish threw a simulated game Sunday, which included three up and downs. Mike Shildt said the next step will either be another simulated game or perhaps a rehab start. He could be back in the next week or so, perhaps. 
Matt McLain is still undergoing tests to determine the cause of the pain in his side. He suffered a stress reaction in his rib cage earlier in the month, and I just don't think there's enough time for him to get back at this point. 
Michael Lorenzen was removed from his start with a hamstring injury.
Cedric Mullins was back in the lineup after missing two games with quad tightness.
Jordan Hicks was placed on the IL with right shoulder inflammation.
Tuesday's standouts 
Dylan Cease, Padres @STL: 4.1 IP, 7 H, 4 ER, 4 BB, 4 K – There have been a few stretches this season where things have threatened to go off the rails for Cease, but I never really worried for one simple reason: The control has been excellent pretty much all along. But things have kind of gone sideways for Cease in that regard lately, with 12 walks over his past four starts and 21.1 innings of work. His previous high for a four-start stretch was 11, back in March/April, and he had only had one other stretch with more than 10 walks since. When things have gone wrong for Cease in past seasons, it's mostly been because of the control, so that's always going to be a red flag for me. Cease has been so good this season that I mostly want to write this off – the fact that he just had seven strikeouts and only one walk literally one start ago helps – but I have to note my concerns here, at least. 
Logan Gilbert, Mariners vs. TB: 6 IP, 4 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 10 K – Mariners pitchers have been let down by their offense all season, but nobody has had a tougher time than Gilbert, who has the lowest ERA of the team's top four starts and has pitched deepest into his starts, on average, and yet has just seven wins in 27 starts to show for it. Gilbert has been better than ever this season, and is having arguably a borderline elite Fantasy season, with a 3.10 ERA, 0.90 WHIP, and 171 strikeouts at the end of August. And he'd be even better for Fantasy with better support. How's this for a stat: Gilbert has a 2.23 ERA in his 10 no-decisions this season. Ridiculous. 
Aaron Nola, Phillies vs. HOU: 7 IP, 4 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 6 K – A lot of Fantasy players were scared off of Nola back in draft season, and while there's still time for things to go wrong, he's been pretty awesome through the first five-sixths of the season. After this outing, he has his ERA down to 3.30 with a 1.16 WHIP and 153 strikeouts – and what's interesting there is that he's having a big bounceback season while also having his worst strikeout rate since his rookie season. When you drafted Nola, you probably thought, "Well, at least I'm getting 200 strikeouts." Unless he goes absolutely bonkers in September, that ain't gonna happen. And yet, you've been thrilled with your pick, haven't you? It's funny how that works out. 
Logan Webb, Giants @MIL: 5 IP, 4 H, 4 ER, 3 BB, 4 K – How good has Webb been recently? This was his first start failing to at least pitch into the sixth inning since Aug. 5, and just his second with fewer than seven innings in his past six starts. He has turned his season around in a big way thanks to much improved results from his changeup, and that seems to be the primary culprit for why he struggled today – he gave up six balls in play with an average exit velocity of 101.8 on the pitch, and he didn't record a single whiff on 18 pitches. Yeah, that's not going to get it done. 
Spencer Schwellenbach, Braves @MIN: 4.2 IP, 5 H, 0 ER, 3 BB, 8 K – Three walks in 4.2 innings of work? For Schwellenbach, that qualifies as a downright wild outing – he hadn't more than two in any start prior to this, and had one stretch earlier in the season where he went five starts and 33 innings with just three walks. Schwellnbach still had his usual six-pitch mix working for him here, generating 19 whiffs and just an 82 mph average exit velocity, so I really don't have any concerns here. We'll see how he holds up down the stretch after already having thrown 67 more pitches than he did all of last season, but if Schwellenbach stays healthy, I think he might just be a top-24 pitcher moving forward. 
Gerrit Cole, Yankees @WAS: 5 IP, 6 H, 3 ER, 1 BB, 7 K – Cole just isn't quite right, is he? In this one, he had the curveball and fastball working for whiffs, but he also gave up 10 batted balls with an average exit velocity of 99.5 mph; the slider did a good job generating weak contact, but also got just two whiffs on 19 pitches, a far cry from what that pitch typically did before this season. I'm pretty much resigned to this being the reality for Cole this season – he's pretty good, but not dominant, and until he rediscovers that slider, I just don't see a path to him getting there. 
Jared Jones, Pirates vs. CHC: 4 IP, 5 H, 5 ER, 3 BB, 4 K – Jones made his return from the IL and it wasn't great. And Jones hasn't really been great since the start of the season when it sure looked like he was making the leap to stardom. His control slipped, he stopped getting quite as many whiffs, and hard contact became a real issue, and all of those were on display in his return from his lat injury. It's just one start after a lengthy absence, so you don't want to overreact, but it would sure be nice to see some glimpses of that ace upside again as we near the stretch run. 
Sean Manaea, Mets @ARI: 6.2 IP, 4 H, 3 ER, 0 BB, 11 K  – Manaea now has four starts with at least 10 strikeouts, making him one of just nine pitchers in the majors to accomplish that feat so far. That's pretty shocking, right? Well, he also has at least nine in four of his past six starts, so it's also becoming increasingly common. Manaea's sweeper is an excellent swing-and-miss pitch, but it's the fastball that has been surprisingly effective, generating 13 of his whiffs between the four-seamer and sinker in this one. It doesn't feel sustainable to me, but Manaea is consistently pitching deep into games and generating really solid results, so I also don't feel any real need to doubt it. It's going to come to an end at some point, but I'm going to keep riding Manaea until it does. 
Jeffrey Springs, Rays @SEA: 5 IP, 1 H, 0 ER, 2 BB, 9 K – The biggest concern here with Springs is just the usage. He was efficient in this one, and was still pulled after five innings and just 79 pitches. Now, that doesn't mean he won't be given a longer leash moving forward, but the Rays haven't let him throw more than five innings in a start yet, and it's going to be tough for him to be much more than a fringe starter if that's the ceiling. 
Justin Verlander, Astros @PHI: 5 IP, 7 H, 4 ER, 1 BB, 3 K – If it didn't have a future Hall of Famer's name attached, I'm not sure Verlander's production so far this season would merit must-roster status. He has a 4.16 ERA with a 1.22 WHIP and 60 strikeouts in 67 innings, which is all very … I don't know, Kyle Gibson-y? Is that all Verlander is at this point? I'm probably going to keep rostering him, but Verlander just isn't a must-start pitcher anymore. That much seems certain. 
Jhoan Duran, RP, Twins – Duran continues to look just a little bit off. Well, in this one, he was a lot off, allowing three earned runs on four hits while recording just a single out. But even before that, he's had an ERA over 3.46 every month this season, and he's up to a 3.77 mark for the season, 1.32 higher than last season's. The velocity has been down pretty much across the board, and the strikeouts and whiff rates along with it, though his 2.56 xERA suggests there's been a bit of bad luck here. I'm probably just leaving Duran in my lineup moving forward and hoping he can avoid these kinds of outings moving forward. But I wish I felt more confident in that. 
Tyler Kinley, RP, Rockies –  For parts of the season, Kinley has been the default option for saves in Colorado, and for most of the season, he just hasn't been up to it. He had been pitching better since moving into a setup role, but tasked with getting his second save in as many nights Tuesday, Kinley gave up four runs on a walk and three hits, a reminder of why the Rockies turned away from him in the first place. At this point, I just don't see much reason to think the Rockies will keep turning to Kinley even with Victor Vodnik on the IL, and even if they do, I don't think you really want Kinley on your team. 
 
 
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