Reform did for the Tories. Could Labour face the same threat from the left?

Good morning. If you worried that there weren’t enough rival factions in Westminster at the moment, you can relax: Jeremy Corbyn has formed a new one. Pulling together under the banner of the Independent Alliance, five leftwing MPs who stood as independents in July’s election say they aim to “provide hope in a parliament of despair” – by fighting to keep the winter fuel allowance, scrap the two-child benefit cap and provide a voice for Palestinians.

At a stroke, the new grouping has as many MPs as Reform UK, and more than the Greens – and even though they haven’t said so, many will be wondering whether this could be the first step towards something larger: a new party of the left, forming from the ashes of Corbynism and presenting a serious danger to Labour’s chances at the next election.

For today’s newsletter, I spoke to Guardian columnist Andy Beckett about the conditions that could make such a remarkable development possible – and why there are still good reasons to think it might not happen. Here are the headlines.

Five big stories

In depth: ‘The way Starmer has governed so far has riled a lot of people up’

The first thing to understand about the Independent Alliance is that it is not a political party. All five members – Corbyn, plus the MPs Shockat Adam, Ayoub Khan, Adnan Hussain and Iqbal Mohamed – stood as independents at the last election, profiting from parallel resentments of Labour over its tack towards the centre and the war in Gaza. Because they did not run under the same banner, they are not eligible for the “Short money” that parties with Westminster representation receive. They do not have a shared manifesto, a leader or any kind of dues-paying membership.

What they hope to have, though, is a platform to put pressure on Labour from the left. As well as the natural amplification that will come with common cause and greater media interest, the group want a similar number of speaking slots in parliamentary debates and PMQs as those allocated to other small parties such as Reform and the Greens.

“They will hope it is the best of both worlds,” said Andy Beckett. “New parties inevitably face huge scrutiny of whether they can succeed, but they can avoid that while acting collectively. I don’t think that’s deliberate strategic genius, but it’s probably helpful.”

A longer term question remains: could this be a first step towards a new party? Here are some reasons to think that could happen – and some it might not.

Why a new party could form

The left is deeply frustrated with Keir Starmer. From the ruthless deselection of leftwing Labour candidates to the refusal to rescind the two-child benefit cap, there are myriad reasons for Corbynites to feel they have lost all influence over the Labour leadership – and many have little faith that it is ever coming back. Nor do they have much to lose by stepping outside the tent.

“There was a moment just after the election when people on Starmer’s side were saying: he’s going to listen, and take account of the people who’ve left us over Gaza and what looks like austerity,” Andy said. “But actually, the way he’s governed so far has riled a lot of people up. Even the decision on arms sales to Israel has made some more angry rather than placating them, because it doesn’t go far enough.”

They may be amplified by surprising sections of the media. Leftwingers could be forgiven for feeling sceptical that the likes of the Daily Mail and the Daily Telegraph could be helpful to them, given the history of the Corbyn years. “But we’re already starting to see some of the more mischievous or cynical parts of the rightwing press have more time for them now there’s a centrist Labour government in place,” Andy said.

See, for example, notably sympathetic coverage of Diane Abbott when she was threatened with removal as a Labour candidate. “You could imagine the novelty of a new grouping opposing Starmer getting quite a sympathetic audience.”

They have a natural constituency – and reason to believe they can make an impact. Corbyn might have been vanquished, but the voters he represented have not. As Andy noted in this piece, last year’s edition of the British Social Attitudes survey found that the public is “as leftwing in their outlook as they have been at any time since 1986”.

“But you only have a very small number of MPs who are leftwing, against, I would argue, 15-20% of the public,” Andy said. “Under-40s who are socially liberal and economically leftwing are not very well represented.”

In the last election, Labour won its landslide through many small majorities. If they lose a bit of their fairly low 34% vote share, it is plausible that a party including prominent leftwingers like Faiza Shaheen or Jamie Driscoll could have an impact in much the same way that Reform did on the Tories: winning a few seats, but costing Labour a lot more.

Why it might not

There are vast practical obstacles in place. Other than Corbyn, the other four MPs were all standing on Gaza as single-issue candidates; if that is not a current issue next time around, it’s very possible they will lose. There will be serious questions about whether it makes sense to form a new party when the Greens already exist, and the Greens may not take kindly to any attempted takeover.

A new party probably wouldn’t have a source of funding like the vast loans that Richard Tice chucked to Reform, and it would lack the infrastructure crucial to turning out voters that Reform built up in its previous incarnations.

Above all, there’s the first past the post system, which has always made it very hard for smaller parties to gain much ground in the UK. “The system is incredibly hostile to new parties,” Andy said – and electoral reform is not on the agenda.

Some on the left haven’t given up on Labour – which isn’t as weak as the Tories were. Yes, Gaza and the looming budget are alienating for many on the left – but others point to the decision to grant public sector workers a pay rise, and the fact that the impact of tax rises will probably be concentrated among the wealthiest. “A lot of people on the left and in trade unions are very positive about what Labour’s doing on workers’ rights,” Andy said. “That kind of thing could shore up their support.

“The other thing is that they are just not as weak as the Tories were facing the Reform threat. It might be eight or nine years before Starmer starts to seem hopeless and burned out. Breaking with the Labour party is still a very big thing for a lot of people.”

It may not need to be formalised to have an impact. The Labour leadership is obviously aware of the threat to its left – and one reason to frontload the kind of austerity that looks imminent is so that the party can present a more optimistic vision as an election draws closer. There is little doubt that Labour’s Gaza policy has been at least somewhat shaped by the electoral consequences it has already faced, and we might well see more progressive policies on the economy once the chance to blame the Tories has expired.

The hope among Corbyn and his allies – as well as those toying with the idea of a new party outside Westminster – is that they are already pulling Labour further in their direction than they would otherwise go. “Labour knows that some of that 34% are lefties who held their noses,” Andy said. “And it can’t just assume that they are going to do so again.”

The publication of the Grenfell Tower report

After seven years, hundreds of thousands of pages of evidence and countless delays, the long awaited final report of the Grenfell Tower inquiry will be published at 11am today. The report is expected to lay out in detail what led to the worst residential fire since the second world war and which parties were responsible. For some background, this primer explains the key findings of the second phase of the inquiry.

The trauma of that disastrous event continues to haunt survivors and the bereaved – three of those people spoke with the Guardian about how the fire has fundamentally changed their lives.

The conditions that led to the fire are not specific to Grenfell – they are a part of a wider “culture of contempt – for people, facts and due process – [that] helped to bring about the disaster”, writes Rowan Moore. Without changing this culture, catastrophes like Grenfell will continue to happen, he adds. For the latest on the Grenfell inquiry, keep a close eye on the Guardian homepage and liveblog, and tomorrow’s First Edition. Nimo Omer

What else we’ve been reading

• Convenience has been sold to us as the ultimate goal – why do anything yourself when there is an app designed to seamlessly do it for you in just a few taps? But, Rachel Connolly asks, what do we lose when we outsource every job, responsibility and errand? Nimo

• “I get a bit worried about the wokey wokey”: Sam Wollaston speaks to the women of Carry On (including Valerie Leon, pictured above), about what they make of the innuendo-laden film series all these decades later. Hannah J Davies, deputy editor, newsletters

• The US electoral system can be quite confusing. Luckily, Lucía González Paz, Garry Blight and Sam Levine have created a helpful visual explainer that unpacks how exactly the electoral college works. Nimo

• “A drizzle, a dollop and a crunch”: chef and writer Bettina Campolucci Bordi has some top tips on plant-based eating to make getting your 10 a day (gah!) feel like less of a chore. Hannah

• Free diving is considered by many to be an extreme sport, but those who participate feel protected because of the presence of “safeties” – divers who are trained to rescue athletes in high-stakes competitions while holding their breath. Tamara Davison is one such diver, and has written about why she is dedicated to her role. Nimo

Sport

Paralympics | Faye Rogers completed the journey from Olympic hopeful to Paralympic swimming champion by powering to gold in the S10 100m butterfly while teammate Callie-Ann Warrington won silver. Wheelchair racer Sammi Kinghorn, pictured, secured her second silver of the Games in the women’s T54 1500m. The British wheelchair fencer Piers Gilliver won a late-night silver in the men’s category A sabre.

US Open | Hard-hitting Belarusian Aryna Sabalenka rolled past China’s Zheng Qinwen 6-1, 6-2 and will play Emma Navarro, who beat Paula Badosa 6-2, 7-5, in the semi-final. On the men’s side, home favourite Taylor Fritz stunned fourth seed Alexander Zverev 7-6 (2), 3-6, 6-4, 7-6 (3), and will face his compatriot Frances Tiafoe who progressed after Grigor Dimitrov retired due to injury.

Cricket | Brendon McCullum will take full control of England’s men’s international teams from January after the red-ball coach agreed to also assume white-ball duties in what the ECB called “a strategic restructure of the set-up”. McCullum has also extended his contract, which had been due to end after next winter’s Ashes series, to the end of 2027.

The front pages

“Six children among 12 dead after boat ‘ripped open’ in the Channel” says the Guardian’s front-page lead headline. “How long before the vile smuggling gangs are stopped?” asks the Daily Mail. The Daily Express has “Dog walker, 80, ‘killed by child in park clash’”, while the Mirror’s version is “‘Murdered’ by a kid 30 seconds from home”.

“Starmer and US at odds over Israel arms sales” – that’s the Times, while the Daily Telegraph splashes on “Rayner in talks to end Thatcher’s ‘right to buy’”. “Grenfell guilty must now be prosecuted, urge MPs and survivors” is the top story in the i. Page one in the Financial Times goes to “Scam reimbursement payouts to be slashed after pressure from fintechs”.

Today in Focus

Cartoon of the day | Martin Rowson

The Upside

A bit of good news to remind you that the world’s not all bad

Every Body Outdoors (EBO) is a group that is campaigning for representation for larger bodies in the world of outdoor pursuits. The outdoor enthusiasts initially came together to address some of the glaring gaps in the world of hiking, where many products are not designed with people over a UK size 18 in mind.

EBO quickly grew to become something even more important: a safe space for plus-size people to gather, and to share advice and adventures. It has become a community where people can gain more confidence in the outdoors and learn essential skills such as map reading and route planning. The group is mixed in age and ability, fostering a nonjudgmental and inclusive environment . “It’s not easy, but while each of us has difficult moments, none of us carries the usual weight of shame,” writes member Ella Foote.

Bored at work?

And finally, the Guardian’s puzzles are here to keep you entertained throughout the day. Until tomorrow.

• Quick crossword

• Cryptic crossword

• Wordiply