30-day outlook: While the short-term technical outlook can go either way, prices are likely to face selling pressure over the coming month as harvest selling ramps up. River levels have not improved despite recent rains and barge traffic is restricted on major rivers in the Midwest. Bulls are looking for production estimates to fall, so far the data does not point to a meaningful drop in production. The balance sheet was seen as expanding this week even with a cut in yield due to an increase in planted acres. Ending stocks are seen as rising over 50% from 2022-23. This gluttony of supply and logistical issues in getting grain moved will keep pressure on prices over the coming month.
90-day outlook: Brazil has taken over as the world largest corn exporter and are seen as maintaining that crown for several years. China has created ties with countries in South America and the effect on corn exports can already be seen, as outstanding sales for 2023-24 are at the lowest level since 2019-20, when the trade war had a large negative influence on China’s willingness to buy U.S. corn. The logistical issues of moving grain are unlikely to resolve into the winter as meaningful precipitation remains sparse and river levels continue to fall. USDA sees exports as rising nearly 400 million bushels from 2022-23, the current pace of sales do not warrant such demand, which will likely continue to weigh on prices into December.
