| Diageo is drinking to forget | Home Depot fixes up real nice |

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Hi John, here's what you need to know for February 27th in 3:14 minutes.

☕️ Finimized over an espresso at Coffeevarium in Minsk, Belarus (7°C/45°F ⛅️)

Today's big stories

  1. Spirits giant Diageo and food conglomerate Danone warned investors about the damage the recent epidemic has caused
  2. Our analysts look at what the big-name bulls and bears are saying about the potential market impact of the epidemic – Read Now
  3. Home improvement retailer Home Depot reported better-than-expected profit and an upbeat forecast for 2020
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Drinking Problems

Drinking Problems

What’s Going On Here?

Global spirits giant Diageo has warned investors that the coronavirus is going to give it one heck of a hangover. Shhh – not so loud, please.

What Does This Mean?

Diageo – the world’s biggest spirits maker – is expecting to lose $260 million in profit this year because of the virus. Sales in its once-fast-growing Chinese market have collapsed as bars and restaurants have shut their doors, while its airport sales are feeling the effects of fewer travelers. Making matters worse, Asia – which accounts for a fifth of Diageo’s sales – is canceling conferences left, right, and center.

But it’s not just booze that’s giving investors a headache: Danone – the French producer of Evian water – lowered its sales and profit targets as demand for its products falls in China. That news has come at a bad time: the company’s new plan to spend $2.2 billion on reducing its reliance on plastic packaging is expected to knock profits, too.

Why Should I Care?

Zooming out: P-S-A, P-S-A!
Still, at least one French company had something good to say on Wednesday: Peugeot-owner PSA Group shrugged off pessimism in the car industry with better-than-expected profit and an increased dividend. While the carmaker expects sales in Europe – its largest market – to drop this year, investors are just relieved it doesn’t rely on China: car sales there have dropped 92% so far in February.

For markets: Drinking to forget.
Danone and Diageo both belong to “defensive” industries: those that, in theory, aren’t hit as hard during economic downturns. People still tend to buy food and liquor in a recession, after all. Carmakers, on the other hand, operate in a “cyclical” industry where profits tend to flow with the economic tide. Bad results or not, shares of companies like Danone and Diageo could ultimately fare better than those of PSA Group if the virus pushes the global economy into recession.

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2/3 Premium Story

Coronavirus Conundrum

As the coronavirus spreads further and further, the bulls and the bears are battling to control the narrative: “investors shouldn’t overreact” is going head to head with “the worst is yet to come”. Our analysts give you a rundown of the top talking points.

Get the full story in the Finimize app

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3/3

Finishing Touches

Finishing Touches

What’s Going On Here?

Home Depot has been a bit of a mess lately, sure, but with the home improvement retailer reporting better-than-expected profit this week, everything finally seems to be coming together.

What Does This Mean?

After a string of disappointing results, Home Depot’s fourth-quarter sales in existing stores came in 5% higher than a year ago. And while the dreaded coronavirus is causing most companies to cut their growth projections, the retailer actually increased its sales forecast for 2020. That could be because Home Depot’s shelves are well-stocked even with the epidemic impacting global supply chains. Or it could just be that the firm stands to benefit from travel-shy consumers who are shifting their spending toward home improvement.

Home Depot’s results were a difficult watch for Lowe’s, which on Wednesday reported fourth-quarter sales in existing stores that grew at half the pace of its arch-rival’s. So while Lowe’s has been trying to attract more online shoppers and professional home-builders lately, its own home improvement kick doesn’t seem to be paying off just yet.

Why Should I Care?

The bigger picture: Home is where the money is.
Fresh data out this week showed home prices in the US increased 3.8% in December from a year earlier, up from November’s 3.5%. That’s good news for both Home Depot and Lowe’s: homeowners are more likely to spend on renovations when they see their property’s value on the rise. And if today’s mortgage rates stay low, those price gains could continue in 2020 and beyond.

Zooming out: Living like a student.
The residential housing market may be hot, but one private equity titan has its eyes on another housing market entirely: Blackstone agreed to buy UK student accommodation company iQ for $6 billion on Wednesday – Britain’s largest-ever private real estate deal (tweet this). The firm’s betting big on the growing student market in the UK, but it might also be trying to bag a bargain before real estate prices – which are on the rise again following the UK's departure from the European Union – climb too high.

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💬 Quote of the day

“As long as you keep a person down, some part of you has to be down there to hold him down, so it means you cannot soar as you otherwise might.”

– Marian Anderson (an American singer of classical music and spirituals)
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🤔 Q&A · RE: Mamma Mia

“Why would lower interest rates be good for bond prices?”

– Gurtej in London, UK

“Investors typically benchmark government bond yields, at least in part, against central bank interest rates. When those rates fall, government bond yields tend to follow. That’s because investors often buy up existing bonds in the expectation that newly issued bonds will offer even lower returns. The increased demand for those existing bonds, then, pushes their prices up and their yields down (remember, the two move inversely), which benefits existing bondholders.”

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🌍 Finimize Community

✈️ It’s going to be a busy month

You won’t make it to all our events this month: there are too many happening all over the world. Then again, what’s life without a challenge? Might be a quick turnaround to get to Perth, but you can snooze on the plane.

🇮🇳 Bengaluru: Zero to Invested, March 3rd
🇷🇴 Cluj: Late Night Finance Show, March 10th
🇨🇭Geneva: Zero to Invested, March 10th
🇮🇪 Dublin: Female Financial Dialogue, March 10th
🇳🇿 New Zealand: NZ’s Financial New Leaf, March 11th
🇪🇸 Barcelona: Future of Fintech, March 11th
🇦🇺 Perth: Female Financial Dialogue, March 11th
🇩🇪 Berlin: Female Financial Dialogue, March 11th
🇺🇸 Dallas: Female Financial Dialogue, March 11th
🇺🇸 Seattle: Female Financial Dialogue, March 11th
🇦🇪 Dubai: Female Financial Dialogue, March 11th
🇨🇦 Toronto: Female Financial Dialogue, March 12th
🇫🇷 Paris: Female Financial Dialogue, March 12th
🇬🇧 London: Female Financial Dialogue, March 12th

⚡️ Lightning insights

Here’s famed investor Warren Buffett: “It is hard to argue that the market always prices rationally. In fact, market prices are frequently nonsensical.” Yep, the Warren Buffett said that.

Our analysts have looked into what makes market prices so unreliable, as well as how to spot promising stocks without getting carried away with the hype. You’ll find it all in our Pack, How To Value Stocks.

📚 What we're reading

  • When arson meets Instagram (PetaPixel)
  • A mathematical breakdown of Legos (Reality Prose)
  • China’s epidemic-burdened internet can’t cope (Abacus)
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