| Profit warnings: priceless | Prudential tries something new |

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Hi John, here's what you need to know for February 26th in 3:08 minutes.

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Today's big stories

  1. Mastercard joined the growing list of big businesses warning investors about the impact of the coronavirus
  2. Our analysts take a look into the stocks that stand to gain from a coronavirus pandemic – Read Now
  3. An activist hedge fund bought a near-$2 billion stake in Prudential, and it's pushing the insurance company to separate its businesses
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Wild Card

Wild Card

What’s Going On Here?

There are some things Mastercard can’t buy, and protection from the coronavirus seems to be one of them: the US company issued a profit warning late on Monday.

What Does This Mean?

The list of big businesses warning investors about the impact of the virus on their operations is growing by the day, and Mastercard is the latest name to be added. The credit card firm has had to cut its sales growth forecast as the spread of the virus continues to put globetrotters off their travels. Air carriers can certainly relate: United Airlines just scrapped its 2020 profit forecast altogether.

But it’s not just travel-dependent sectors that are feeling sore. With China – the world’s manufacturing plant – having seen lots of its factories close in response to the epidemic, the virus has become a crippling malady for any company that relies on a global supply chain. Take Procter & Gamble, for example: even the maker of everyday essentials is expecting the virus to hit its first-quarter earnings hard.

Why Should I Care?

The bigger picture: US stocks are teetering.
At last count, 20% of the 500 biggest US companies had warned investors about the damage the virus was doing – and that number’s likely climbing as we speak. That trend doesn’t bode well for US stocks: their price-to-earnings ratio – that is, their market value relative to their forecasted earnings – is still pretty high. Some investors might then start to see the stock market as too expensive, and dump their shares as a result.

Zooming out: Hold on to your monocle.
Luxury firms are a good case study of just how much chaos the epidemic is causing. According to a survey of 28 top executives earlier in the week, the outbreak is expected to cost the industry as much as $43 billion in lost sales, most of which is down to the flagging Chinese market (tweet this). Well I never!

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Don’t Panic

While stock markets around the world are falling as the coronavirus spreads, our analysts have been busy identifying stocks that could benefit in the event of ongoing pandemic pandemonium.

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Karate Bid

Karate Bid

What’s Going On Here?

Activist hedge fund Third Point has bought an almost-$2 billion stake in Prudential – and plans to use its newfound power to split up the insurer’s Asian and US businesses. Hi-yah!

What Does This Mean?

Activist investors are renowned for using their sizeable ownership stakes to influence the future direction of a company. And Third Point – which now owns nearly 5% of Prudential – is no different: the hedge fund wants the insurer to separate its fast-growing Asian business from its small US business. It’s also pushing Prudential to move its costly head office away from the UK – a change that could save the business $260 million a year. There’s nothing to suggest Prudential won’t be on board with this new strategy, either: just last year, the insurance firm was only too happy to break up its investment management business in an effort to boost the value of its shares.

Why Should I Care?

For markets: No more distractions.
The logic behind the move is that the two separate insurers would be worth more than Prudential is alone. That’s because the company as a whole fetches a much lower “valuation multiple” – i.e. the ratio of its market value to the profit it makes – than some of its Asian rivals. Without an expensive head office or distracting US business to drag it down, Prudential’s Asian segment might earn itself a higher valuation multiple, which should help lift the company's overall market value.

The bigger picture: Unpopular demand.
Third Point’s proposals could be welcomed by Prudential’s management, sure, but they’ll likely be met with resistance elsewhere. The company has a large number of British investors who currently enjoy the London-listed stock’s hefty dividend. Third Point’s proposals would not only delist the company’s stock from the London Stock Exchange, they’d also cut the amount the firm pays in dividends so it can invest more in the business itself.

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💬 Quote of the day

“I think self-awareness is probably the most important thing toward being a champion.”

– Billie Jean King (an American former World No. 1 professional tennis player)
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⚡️ Lightning insight

If you’re thinking of buying a home, you’ll need two things to secure a mortgage: a stable income to cover repayments, and a hefty deposit. Without those, lenders won’t give you a second look.

Our analysts have broken down the process of buying your own place: what it involves, how much you’ll need, and if it’s even worth it. You’ll find it all in our Pack, Housing: Rent or Buy.

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