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| Everything you need to make sense of the crypto markets and beyond By the CoinDesk Markets Team Edited by Lawrence Lewitinn, Managing Editor, Global Capital Markets July 1, 2021 Sponsored by Bitcoin (BTC) -4.6% $33,167 Ether (ETH) -1.2% $2,111 (Price data as of July 1 @11:00 UTC) If you were forwarded this newsletter and would like to receive it, sign up here.
Good morning, and welcome to First Mover. Due to an error, a previous version of this newsletter went out earlier. Here's what's happening this morning: Market Moves: Bitcoin’s Sliding Put-Call Ratio Points to Weakening Bearish Sentiment: AnalystsThe last time the put-call ratio dropped to six-month lows was during the December-January bull run. Technician's Take: Bitcoin Declines from $36K Resistance; Could Find Support at $30K BTC starts July on a negative note, although buyers could return at $30K support. And check out the CoinDesk TV show "First Mover," hosted by Christine Lee, Emily Parker and me at 9:00 a.m. U.S. Eastern time. Today the show will feature guests: Oki Matsumoto, Monex Group CEO Darius Sit, QCP Capital Helen Hai, Binance NFT Lead– Lawrence Lewitinn
Biggest Movers These are the biggest movers in the CoinDesk 20 over the past 24 hours:
Gainers: Aave (AAVE): +3.0% Tezos (XTZ): +1.2% Yearn Finance (YFI): +0.6% Uniswap (UNI): +0.3%
Losers: The Graph (GRT): -6.5%Filecoin (FIL): -6.4% Chainlink (LINK): -5.1%
The CoinDesk 20 are 20 digital assets filtered from the larger universe of thousands of cryptocurrencies and constitute roughly 99% of the market by volume at eight of the largest and most trustworthy exchanges.
Market Moves by Omkar Godbole Bitcoin’s Sliding Put-Call Ratio Points to Weakening Bearish Sentiment: Analysts Bitcoin’s put-call open interest ratio has slipped to six-month lows, indicating an ebbing of bearish sentiment.
According to data tracked by options analytics platform Skew, the ratio measuring the number of open positions, or open interest in put options relative to open interest in call options, fell to 0.60 on Wednesday, a level last seen in early January.
“The ratio has come down, indicating growing demand for call options, which could be interpreted as a positive signal, demonstrating a potential decline in overall bearish sentiment,” Luuk Strijers, chief commercial officer at Deribit, the world’s largest crypto-options exchange by open interest and trading volumes, told CoinDesk in a Telegram chat. Bitcoin's put-call open interest ratio (Source: Skew) The ratio slipped to a then six-month low of 0.45 in late December and remained mainly in the range of 0.50 to 0.70 in January as flows were concentrated on the call side. Bitcoin topped the long-held $20,000 resistance in December and rallied by 100% to nearly $60,000 in the first quarter of this year.
The put-call open interest ratio peaked at 0.94 in April and has been falling ever since.
“When the market was bullish in January, we could see a lot of flows buying calls at strikes 50% above bitcoin (BTC)‘s going market price,” Martin Cheung, an options trader from Pulsar Trading Capital, said in a Telegram chat.
Cheung said the ratio’s slide from highs seen in April and May indicates the market has calmed down and digested most of the negative news flow.
That said, drawing conclusions from the put-call open interest ratio can be problematic, because the measure does not reveal whether the number of positions open is mainly on the bullish or bearish side.
For example, some market participants may have sold call options in recent weeks, adding to the tally of the number of open positions in calls – the ratio’s denominator – and contributing to the downward pressure on the ratio. Savvy traders often sell call options, that is insurance against a bullish move, when they expect the market to consolidate or drop.
“You have to bear in mind that the put-call open interest ratio can give the wrong message,” Deribit’s Strijers said. “For example, users shorting upside calls contribute to open interest and volumes for calls; however, that is a bearish strategy.”
Nevertheless, the recent decline in the put-call open interest ratio may have been fueled at least partly by a pick-up in demand for calls or unwinding of long put positions, that is unwinding of bearish bets.
While the put-call ratio is giving bullish hints, the options smile shows persistent concern of an extended sell-off and greater demand for puts or bearish bets at strikes lower than bitcoin’s current market price.
Read the original story here: Bitcoin’s Sliding Put-Call Ratio Points to Weakening Bearish Sentiment: Analysts
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Technician's Take by Damanick Dantes, CMT Bitcoin Declines from $36K Resistance; Could Find Support at $30K Bitcoin (BTC) is under pressure after buyers took profits near $36,000 resistance on Tuesday. Lower support is seen around $30,000, which is the bottom of the month-long trading range.
The world’s largest cryptocurrency is entering July on a negative note and is down about 4% over the past 24 hours. Bitcoin was trading around $33,000 at press time. Bitcoin four-hour price chart shows short-term support and resistance levels with RSI )Source: TradingView) The relative strength index (RSI) is not yet oversold on the four-hour chart, which means sellers could remain active towards lower support levels.Bitcoin failed to reverse a short-term downtrend over the past two weeks as resistance remains strong between $36,000 and $40,000. The 50-period moving average on the four-hour chart is stabilizing, although price is attempting to breakdown, keeping up with a series of lower highs over the past quarter. Bitcoin remains in a consolidation phase since June, although improving momentum could support a relief bounce if buyers defend $30,000 support. Read the original story here: Bitcoin Declines from $36K Resistance; Could Find Support at $30K
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BOLO Be on the look out for some of these upcoming events:
12:30 UTC (8:30 a.m. ET): Initial jobless claims (Jun 26). Est: 390,000
The cryptocurrency movement has never been so sprawling, reaching every corner of the planet. Crypto State by CoinDesk aims to connect with local communities to explore this movement of financial disruption and how it trickles down to every corner of the globe, from DeFi investment opportunities to alternative ways to transact and store wealth. We're making virtual stops with audiences in Nigeria, the Middle East and Southeast Asia this year. Register for the Crypto State virtual tour.
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EIP 1559: Ethereum's Fee Market Upgrade Explained CoinDesk Research's newest report dives into the economic impacts and investment implications of Ethereum Improvement Proposal (EIP) 1559. At its core, the code change is designed to make transaction fees on Ethereum less volatile and more predictable. At the same time, EIP 1559 also poses several risks to Ethereum including risks of miner capitulation or revolt, technological risk in the form of unexpected bugs, and risk of user disappointment. In this report, CoinDesk Research gives an overview of how EIP 1559 works and its intended impact for investors, miners and users. Download the full report today.
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Disclaimer: The information presented in this message is intended as a news item that provides a brief summary of various events and developments that affect, or that might in the future affect, the value of one or more of the cryptocurrencies described above. The information contained in this message, and any information liked through the items contained herein, is not intended to provide sufficient information to form the basis for an investment decision. The information presented herein is accurate only as of its date, and it was not prepared by a research analyst or other investment professional. You should seek additional information regarding the merits and risks of investing in any cryptocurrency before deciding to purchase or sell any such instruments. ATTENTION: Scammers have been sending fraudulent emails with links to sites disguised to look like coindesk.com. If you are in doubt about a link, type https://www.coindesk.com directly into your browser; do not copy and paste. Remember, if something seems too good to be true, it probably is.
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