Dear Friend,

Our friends from Gavekal Research delivered their April report to Over My Shoulder subscribers last week, and I’m happy to say it contained some very good news.

Apparently, Europe is now on the way to getting a handle on the COVID-19 outbreak. They’re not out of the woods yet, but we can clearly see a downward trend.

Thankfully, the picture for the United States looks similar.

I think we all needed this silver lining, reassuring us that there’s an end to this crisis in sight.

Gavekal’s bottom line for both Europe and the US (and I quote):

• There are encouraging signs that social controls are starting to slow the momentum of the epidemic.
• Another week or so of data is required to be sure a stable slowing trajectory has been established.
• Based on China’s experience, fairly strict social controls will likely stay in place in most if not all regions until early/mid-May (~two months after imposition).

Their projection is that if the whole US does everything right, we should see a peak in mid-April.

Now, don’t get me wrong, this is the best-case scenario. But still—it’s the most hopeful news I’ve read in a while, and I’m grateful to Louis Gave and his team for providing it.

Another piece of good news: Our $9.95-per-month sale for Over My Shoulder is still on for another 48 hours, so please take advantage of this 33% discount offer before it ends tomorrow, April 13, at midnight.

My co-editor Patrick Watson and I will send you top-tier, must-read research from my network of brilliant economists, asset managers, and policy experts three to four times a week.

Much of it is confidential, client-only articles and reports that we have special permission to reproduce.

Every issue of Over My Shoulder includes a short summary of the key points so you can decide which topics are worthy of your closer attention.

I hope you will join us today.

Your feeling like we’re almost through this crisis analyst,

John Mauldin
Co-Founder