| World trade was 1.4% lower in March compared to February. This decline is hardly greater than in January and February, when world trade also declined by an average of 1.2%. The decline in industrial production of 0.2% is also in line with the previous months.There are major regional differences in the development of trade and production. The downturn is particularly strong in Europe, with trade falling by more than 7% and industrial production falling by over 12%. In China, trade and production rebounded in March, following a sharp decline in January and a consolidation in February. It is striking that the fluctuations in industrial production, both the downturn in the advanced economies and the growth in the emerging economies, are stronger than the fluctuations in trade. We expect a stronger decline in trade and production in April and May, in line with a tightening of COVID-19 measures in many regions. The moni tor refers to March, but we provide a look ahead in these special times. Partial figures for April show a mostly negative picture, and leading indicators such as Global New Export Orders point to a stronger decline in global trade in the coming months. |
