CPBs short-term forecasts September 2018

The Dutch economy continues to flourish, with growth figures of 2.8% this year and 2.6% in 2019. Unemployment will drop to 3.5%, and most households will experience an increase in purchasing power. The expansive budget and relatively flexible monetary policy both play a role, here. There are nevertheless increasing uncertainties that may have a negative economic impact. This includes emerging trade wars, uncertain Italian budget policy, and a possible hard Brexit. Because of the strong economy, public finances are in the green. However, the cyclically adjusted budget balance will decrease in 2019 to a deficit of 0.4% of GDP.