Crunch time for ANZ-Suncorp | CVC at APM | Senex banks up | Loscam on the block

Good evening,

Mark your calendars for 9am on Tuesday; the Australian Competition Tribunal is set to decide the fate of ANZ’s $4.9 billion takeover offer for Suncorp Bank.

ANZ vowed to fight for Suncorp Bank after the competition regulator blocked its attempt in June. The ACCC had raised fears the acquisition would “further entrench an oligopoly” and lead to reduced competition in home loans, and agribusiness and business banking in Queensland.

The feeling inside the bank is one of optimism they’ll get the green light, sources told Street Talk. If so, as our senior banking reporter writes, this will change the competitive boundaries in the sector for years to come and cement the legacies of Shayne Elliott and Steve Johnston.

If the tribunal decides to stick with the ACCC, it is back to the drawing board for ANZ. The company line is if the ruling doesn’t go its way, the leftover cash would likely be used for capital management – though they would say that. Either way, with $5 billion-odd sitting there, they’ll have to do something, whether it be buybacks or an acquisition.

One left-field option is buying $1.3 billion small business lender Judo Bank, which would be expected to have Barrenjoey on defence. All the major banks are paying around 1.75 per cent while Judo plays around the 3 per cent mark. As the theory goes – ANZ could buy it, strip out the management and drop that sweet NIM straight to its bottom line.

And then there’s 2022’s bridesmaid: MYOB. Street Talk revealed ANZ was in discussions to acquire the KKR-owned accounting software group, drawn to MYOB’s foothold in small business banking. At the time, ANZ had Jarden in its corner. MYOB-KKR was working with Credit Suisse.

Flagstaff Partners′ Tony Burgess and Ashurst‘s Peter Armitage are on the case for ANZ. Barrenjoey‘s Matthew Grounds and Anthony Brasher and Herbert Smith Freehills’ Linda Evans are shilling for Suncorp.

Read the full story tomorrow and more on the Street Talk page.

Click herefor the latest equity market wrap.