|  | *past 24-hour performance |
| 💨 TL;DR | Crypto is ripping and gold blew past $2,100. Oil pumped a bit today but reversed course amid persistent pressure from the OPEC+ decision and uncertainty over global fuel demand growth. Deflation may be coming. What does it mean? Americans spent more this year but gave less.
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| | 📰 Market Headlines | It’s a slow week from an earnings pov, but there’s lots to look forward to otherwise: Today is finance day at COP28, which means more funding is likely to be announced for the climate cause. Gamestop (Wednesday) and Dollar General (Thursday) both report. The former is significant due to its cult following, and the latter is a temperature check of the US consumer. Crude oil inventories are out Wednesday. If there is a draw on the inventory number, we could see oil start to climb again. Often, this means higher gas prices and higher goods prices heading into the Christmas Season. Unemployment claims Thursday. This is a dual-edged sword. Lower claims are better for the economy, but higher claims could convince the Fed to leave rates alone or reduce them sooner. Unemployment rate Friday. Different data to Thursday’s claims but no less important. Check out the forecasts below.
Equity markets finished in the green Friday, led by REITs. While Black Friday and Cyber Monday beat expectations, Giving Tuesday lagged behind 2022. Durable goods deflation is helping bring inflation closer to 2%. Executives in the cryptocurrency industry called the start of a new bull run with a growing number of voices calling for fresh all-time highs for Bitcoin in 2024 above $100,000. Gold rose to a record high today before giving up some gains. Prices of the yellow metal have risen for two consecutive months, with the Israel-Palestinian conflict boosting demand for the safe-haven asset..
| 🧠 Crucial Context | There's a lot of chat out there about deflation in durable goods in the US, which is a good thing in its particular sector. | If it becomes widespread, though, it could spell economic collapse because deflation is different from disinflation. | TL;DR: Deflation is bad. Disinflation is good. | Deflation is when the general price level in an economy is falling. This isn't just a case of certain products or services getting cheaper; it's a broad decrease across various sectors. Deflation can be tricky for an economy because it often leads to a decrease in consumer spending. Why? Well, if people expect prices to keep falling, they might delay purchases, which in turn can slow economic growth. It can also make debts more burdensome as the value of money increases, but incomes may not. | Disinflation, on the other hand, is a slowing in the rate of inflation. It means prices are still rising but at a slower pace than before. For example, if inflation was running at 3% last year and this year it's at 2%, that's disinflation. It's often seen as a positive sign, especially if inflation was previously deemed too high. Disinflation suggests that an economy is managing to keep price increases in check, which can be beneficial for long-term economic stability. | | 🕶️ Market Vibes | 🎰 Market Forecasts and Futures | Brought to you by Kalshi, our favorite prediction market. Get $25 with this link. | End-of-year forecasts | | Macro forecasts | | 😱 Fear and Greed Index | | | 🧠 What do you think? | Will Bitcoin hit $100k in 2024?The best comments will be featured tomorrow | |
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| 🎤 What you said last time | Y’all are bullish on oil going into next year to the tune of at least a 25% gain. |
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| | Oil goes up | “Supply and demand is simple. With less supply, prices will go up because we need oil and gas.” | Oil stays low | “The USA is producing a lot!” | | 📊 Stocks | | Want to invest like Buffet? With Public.com, you can emulate Berkshire Hathaway’s portfolio with just a few clicks. | Winners and losers | Ulta Beauty closed up more than 10% after reporting Q3 net sales of $2.49 billion, stronger than the consensus of $2.47 billion. Paramount was up 9% after reports of an Apple tie-in. Pfizer closed down more than -5 % after it dropped the development of its experimental weight loss drug danuglipron after a high rate of side effects appeared in a mid-stage study. Dell Technologies closed down more than -6% after reporting Q3 total net revenue below consensus and forecasting weaker-than-expected Q4 revenue. Toyota is expanding its EV lineup for 2026. Spotify is axing another 1,500 employees in its third cut of the year. Alaskan Air is buying Hawaiian Air for $1.9 billion as the 49th and 50th states vie for air-travel dominance.
| Ideas and analysis | Weight loss drugs are bullish for apparel makers. Geography is an unexpected factor when valuing automakers. Five stocks to play the US-China chip war. What will subscription fees do to automaker profits?
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| | | | | | 🌍 Global Perspectives | 🇻🇪 🇬🇾 Things are heating up between Venezuela and Guyana as the former asserts its claim on the latter’s vast oil wealth. | 🇰🇪 El Niño rains in Kenya have caused devastating flooding and killed over 120 people. | | 🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia spent a lot of time at COP28 bolstering its sustainability credentials. | 🇮🇳 A severe cyclone in the Bay of Bengal is likely to cause heavy rain and strong winds across southeast India | 🇮🇩 Indonesia's Marapi volcano in West Sumatra province erupted on Sunday, spewing volcanic ash as high as 3,000 meters (9,843 ft) into the air. |
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| | | | 🗳️ Outside the Box | Can we really fuel planes with fat and sugar? Will Smith is returning for the 'I Am Legend' sequel, despite being killed off in the original film. Recalling influential people who died (so far) in 2023. Why are perfume advertisements so weird?
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| | 📺 What to Watch Today |  | How America racked up a $1 trillion credit card bill |
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| | 📈 Trends you need to know | Brought to you by our friends at Glimpse, my favorite way to spot trends. | |
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| Between 2016 and 2020, sales of melatonin supplements increased by around 150 percent, and some 20% of children take the supplement to fall asleep. |
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| | That’s all for today. Did we miss anything? Smash the reply button to let us know. | Cheers, | Wyatt |
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| | Notes | Please read this disclaimer. The authors of Alt Assets, Inc. are not attorneys, investment advisers, accountants, tax professionals or financial advisers and any of the content should not be taken as professional advice. They are self-taught accredited investors, sharing information, research, entertainment and lessons learned based solely on their own experience and circumstances. Individual results may vary. The published content is unique, based on certain assumptions and market conditions at the time of publishing, and is intended to serve solely as research, not financial advice. For entertainment purposes only. Not investment advice. Alts I LLC (the “Fund”) is an affiliate of Alt Assets, Inc. and the Fund has conducted a private placement offering under Rule 506(c) of Regulation D of the Securities Act of 1933, as amended. The Fund may invest in one, several, or all of the alternative asset classes that Alt Assets, Inc. publishes content about on its site. Any of the Fund’s investments that have positive designations on the Alt Assets, Inc. site are purely coincidental, as the Fund is actively managed and guided by its own investment parameters, as summarized in the relevant private placement memorandum. Alternative investing involves a high degree of risk, including complete loss of principal and is not suitable for all investors. Past performance does not guarantee future results. The newsletter may contain affiliate links, meaning that Alts.co and its associated entities may receive compensation for referring customers to the noted companies. We recommend seeking the advice of a financial professional before you make any investment in an alternative asset class or any associated entities, and we accept no liability whatsoever for any loss or damage you may incur. |
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