| | | Good afternoon. Yesterday marked a bittersweet day for the bitcoin community. 13 years ago Satoshi Nakamoto posted his last message on the Bitcointalk forum. | While it would be great to hear from the founder of bitcoin to gather his insights around current use-cases, vulnerabilities, and adoption narratives… it’s all OK. | The truth is that Satoshi’s anonymity may just be what’s keeping bitcoin together. | Fun Fact: Don’t let the message above confuse you with Satoshi’s last public message ever. In 2014, while there was a lot of controversy about Nakamoto’s identity, a P2P Foundation profile linked to the creator popped on and stated “I am not Dorian Nakamoto.”
| Today’s Big Stories:
🚀 The potential Bitcoin ETF Inflows are no joke
📌 Crypto stocks have a week | Today’s free newsletter is brought to you by Autonomix – Breakthrough nerve-sensing technology that is preparing to list on the Nasdaq. | Today's newsletter is 1,178 words, a 4-minute read. |
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We Still Might Be Underestimating The Bitcoin ETF Mania |
Bitcoin ETF mania is fully upon us. And no matter what Elizabeth Warren and Jamie Dimon are trying to do to stop it, an approval is beginning to look more and more likely. So much so that according to one Bloomberg analysis, the chance of an approval by January 10 is 90%. |
So as we lead up to that fateful date, a question arises: How much money will actually inflow into bitcoin ETFs? And how much will it impact the price? |
Let’s take a look at some predictions… |
Galaxy Digital
ETF inflow prediction: $79.5 billion in first 3 years
Key quote: “We could see monthly returns gradually ramping down from +6.2% in the first month to +3.7% by the last month of the first year, resulting in an estimated +74% increase in BTC in the first year of an ETF approval (using 9/30/23 BTC price $26,920 as the starting point).” Read more » |
Glassnode
ETF inflow prediction: $70.5 billion
Key quote: “Based on these assumptions, we estimate approximately $60.6 billion could flow into Bitcoin from the combined stock and bond ETFs, and about $9.9 billion from the gold market, totalling around $70.5 billion in potential new capital influx.” Read more » |
Bitwise
ETF inflow prediction: $72 billion
Key quote: “Within five years, we estimate spot bitcoin ETFs could capture 1% of the $7.2 trillion U.S. ETF market, or $72 billion in AUM.” “We expect… [bitcoin to trade] above $80,000 and setting a new all-time high.” Read more » |
Apollo
ETF inflow prediction: $65 billion
Key quote: “We could see $65 billion in inflow to Bitcoin ETFs in the coming cycle. Applying a 50x multiplier effect leads to an increased market cap of US$3.25 trillion in which case we would see Bitcoin trading at US$200,000 per coin. We realise this is a bold estimate with a lot of uncertainty.” Read more » |
Our Thoughts
Consensus seems to be somewhere in the $75 billion range. |
But let’s be clear here… nobody knows anything. |
Most of these prognosticators are just basing their number on comparisons to what happened when gold ETFs were introduced. |
But trying to forecast the amount of money that will inflow into spot bitcoin ETFs based on historical norms can be a distraction. There is a financial transformation taking place. Bitcoin is a growth story where, unlike gold, no more of the asset can be created. |
So what is the true number? Hell if we know. But if we know bitcoin, there is a high chance that it will surprise everyone. |
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What’s Really Behind The SEC’s Crypto Lawsuits? | What happens when the world’s largest investment management firm “partners” with the most powerful government on the face of the Earth? | The answer is a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity in the crypto market. But the clock is ticking. Approval of BlackRock’s Bitcoin ETF could happen at any moment. And when it does – crypto prices are going to spike – and may never come back down. Here’s how to prepare » |
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Crypto PubCo’s Are Having A Week |
While crypto prices make a comeback, public companies – a.k.a. crypto stocks – are taking advantage of the uptick in market momentum with several splashy announcements. |
In today’s issue, we’ll overview each big move… |
Galaxy Digital (GLXY)
Crypto fund manager Galaxy Digital, Deutsche Bank’s DWS Group, and Dutch market maker Flow Traders are planning to issue a euro-denominated stablecoin. |
The partnership weaves the traditional and digital asset sectors together at a time of increased regulatory clarity in the EU following the newly adopted Markets in Crypto Assets Regulation (MiCAR). More MiCAR ripple effects below. 👇️ |
Why it matters: The stablecoin business, as we’ve covered countless times over the years in CoinSnacks is a boring but highly-profitable business model. If successful, this partnership gives Galaxy yet another diversified revenue stream.
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Robinhood (HOOD)
Less than 24 hours after we highlighted Robinhood as a sneaky backdoor play, the firm came out with a splashy announcement allowing commission-free crypto trading in the European Union (EU). |
The platform will provide EU investors access to more than 25 cryptocurrencies. To add, a unique cashback-like loyalty program will be introduced, offering users a percentage of their monthly trading volume in Bitcoin. |
Block Inc. (SQ)
Block, the payments company led by former Twitter CEO Jack Dorsey, announced last week that Bitkey, a physical device on which customers can store Bitcoin, was officially open for preorders in more than 95 countries. |
The Bitcoin wallet will ship in early 2024 and cost $150 in the U.S., a purchase price that includes the actual wallet, a charging cable, a mobile app, as well as recovery tools. |
Why it matters: There’s a reason why the company changed its name from Square to Block in 2021 – to signify the firm’s commitment to integrating Bitcoin into its core business. The opening of Bitkey to the general public continues Dorsey and Block’s commitment to Bitcoin across the company’s business verticals, despite the cryptocurrency’s lack of centrality to Block’s current quarterly revenue.
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Coinbase (COIN)
Another week, another wave of growth initiatives from the determined executives over at Coinbase. Here’s all that went down: |
SEAM, the governance token of Base, launches: SEAM becomes the first and only native Base-based project's token listed on Coinbase. Crypto <> Italian banks: Coinbase partners with Conio, a wallet company with over 400,000 customers, to introduce a diverse array of digital assets to Italian banks and financial institutions. Welcomes spot trading of BTC and ETH outside the US: Starting tomorrow, Coinbase’s international exchange will allow institutional customers to trade bitcoin and ether against the USDC stablecoin. (Retail investors will have to wait a few more months to do the same) Reminder: Thanks to the lack of regulatory clarity within U.S. borders, Coinbase continues to make big strides overseas. It’s international exchange just launched in May of this year, but only offered derivative trading up until this point.
Project Diamond launches: A smart contract-powered platform that allows institutions to create, manage, and exchange native digital assets on-chain. Details: Think of it as the tokenization of real-world assets (RWAs). It can offer speedier settlements, cheaper operation and more transparency compared to old-school financial plumbing. Project Diamond takes tokenization to the next level, creating digital assets directly on the blockchain instead of crafting token versions of an already existing instrument.
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Hut 8 (HUT)
Fresh off a strategic merger with US Bitcoin Corp. (USBTC), yesterday Hut 8 announced plans to snatch up four Canadian power plants and a new bitcoin mining site. |
Last week, we discussed how important it was for bitcoin miners to have flexibility, cost efficiency, and revenue diversity to survive after the halving (when block rewards will be cut in half). The recent merger, plus this recent array of energy acquisitions allow Hut 8 to sell energy to the market, mine bitcoin, or power high-performance computing applications, such as those related to AI. |
Read more: Anthony Power, an analyst at Compass Mining, just released another comprehensive update on all the North American bitcoin mining powerhouses. Lots of updates, graphs and tables.
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 | Pomp 🌪 @APompliano |  |
| The Greatest Marketing Blitz In Finance History Is Coming We are on the precipice of one of the largest marketing blitzes in the history of financial markets. The bitcoin spot ETF is rumored to gain approval in early January 2024, which will kick off a global competition between… twitter.com/i/web/status/1… | | | Dec 13, 2023 | | |  | | | 696 Likes 106 Retweets 59 Replies |
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About CoinSnacks |
Launched in December 2017, CoinSnacks is home to the longest continuously running crypto newsletter. Each week, we publish our cryptoasset musings to an audience of 35k+ crypto enthusiasts and investors. |
In a space flooded with new projects, research, and narratives, you may feel overwhelmed or confused. CoinSnacks offers a solution by doing the digging for you, so you don't have to spend hundreds of hours sifting through the noise. |
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