In-Depth Issues:
IDF Downs Hizbullah Missile Fired at Tel Aviv - Udi Ezion ( Jerusalem Post) The IDF used an advanced David's Sling interceptor to down a Hizbullah rocket over central Israel on Wednesday. David's Sling is designed to intercept advanced threats, including ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, aircraft, and drones. Each interceptor costs over $1 million. See also The Missile Hizbullah Used to Target Tel Aviv - Lior Ben Ari ( Ynet News) Hizbullah's Qader 1 surface-to-surface ballistic missile boasts a range of 118 miles, with a 1,100 lb. warhead. See a lso Hizbullah Targets Half of Israel's Population - Yonah Jeremy Bob ( Jerusalem Post) Hizbullah sent more than half the Israeli population running to bomb shelters on Wednesday due to aerial attacks that targeted Tel Aviv, Zichron Ya'acov, and other areas. There were no deaths and few direct hits from the salvos of around 100 rockets. Two men were wounded by a Hizbullah rocket near Nahariya. Two men were wounded when a drone believed sent from Iraq struck Eilat. Sources have said that an Israeli invasion into southern Lebanon grows increasingly likely. However, the plan, as of Wednesday, remains to wait a week or two for a diplomatic solution. See also Video: Watch 30 Hizbullah Rockets Fired at Israel Fall into the Sea ( Israel Hayom)
Experts View Impact of Heavy Losses on Hizbullah - Veronica Neifakh ( Media Line-Jerusalem Post) Gen. (ret.) Israel Ziv, former head of IDF Operations, said Hizbullah is currently reassessing its strategy after heavy losses. "First, they're trying to realize their real situation - how much they've lost, not just in terms of people, but assets as well." Hizbullah is grappling with the unexpected cost of its attacks on Israel. "It's far more than they anticipated." Iran doesn't appear likely to get more directly involved in the conflict, which "is a huge disappointment" for Hizbullah. "The initiative is in Israel's hands now. We've taken it from Hizbullah." Prof. Uzi Rabi, director of the Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies at Tel Aviv University, said, "There are about half a million displaced [Lebanese civilians], mostly Shiites, and they're struggling to find housing." "If Israel can escalate the friction between Hizbullah and the Lebanese people, it could further weaken the group." Rabi added, "Israel shouldn't rush to a ceasefire without learning the bitter lessons of Oct. 7 and the last 18 years in the north." "Israel needs to achieve more military success to strengthen its position at the negotiating table. Displaced people from northern Israel would not feel secure unless Israel establishes a security zone in southern Lebanon to prevent future attacks."
Senators Say Biden Administration Is Continuing to Delay Critical Weapons for Israel - Hannah Sarisohn ( Jerusalem Post) Sens. Tom Cotton (R-AR) and Mitch McConnell (R-KY) wrote to the White House on Wednesday to condemn the "administration's continued delay in providing critical equipment and weapons to our ally Israel in the midst of an existential war." The delays "undercut Israel's efforts to restore deterrence by emboldening the Iranian-backed terrorists." They referred to MK-84 bombs required to hit Hamas's and Hizbullah's deeply buried tunnels, Apache attack helicopters requested last December, and Caterpiller D9 tractors used to clear improvised explosive devices ahead of its troops. See also Text of Letter: Weapons Delays to Israel Cost Lives and Embolden Iran ( Sen. Tom Cotton)
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Israel's Population nears Ten Million ( Walla-Jerusalem Post) Israel's population is estimated at 9,915,000, the Israel Central Bureau of Statistics said Wednesday. 7,632,000 are Jews (77%), and 2,067,000 are Arabs (20.8%).
The Technological Superiority of Israel since 1967 - Abdulrahman al-Rashed ( Al Arabiya) More than 4,000 people were killed or injured in two sophisticated technical operations carried out by Israel against Hizbullah, using pagers and walkie-talkies. Egypt's Abdel Nasser complained about Israeli superiority half a century ago, and today the gap has doubled, making the idea of change through armed force nearly impossible, if not naive. What makes Israel superior is its focus on intellect in the field of technology, which has granted it continuous victories to this day in both peace and war and has distinguished it economically despite the small size of its markets. For Hizbullah, like Iran, its strength lies in its willingness t o sacrifice its fighters, as well as recruiting cheap fighters from Lebanon, Iraq, Afghanistan, and Yemen, and adapting cloned weapons from Russia and China. These wars will continue because one side is diligently working to develop its capabilities, while the other side is entrenched in metaphysical beliefs and places no value on the loss of human lives.
10,000 Malawians to Work in Israel - Maayan Hoffman ( Media Line-Ynet News) 10,000 foreign workers from the majority-Christian African country of Malawi are expected to arrive in Israel by the end of the year to support industries such as agriculture, construction, elder care, and tourism. 700 Malawians are already working in Israel. Last week, Malawi was one of just 14 countries that voted against a UN General Assembly resolution demanding that Israel withdraw from the West Bank.
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| News Resources - North America, Europe, and Asia: - Biden Administration Divided over Israel's Escalation Against Hizbullah - John Hudson
The Biden administration is divided over Israel's military escalation against Hizbullah, with some senior officials seeing it as a potentially effective means of degrading the Lebanese militant group and forcing it to back down. "Full-scale war is not in anyone's interest," President Joe Biden told the UN on Tuesday.
On Oct. 8, a day after Hamas's surprise attack on Israel, Hizbullah op ened a second front, shelling Israel from the north. Hizbullah has said it would end its rocket attacks if there is a ceasefire in Gaza, but Israel refuses to link the conflict with Hizbullah to hostilities in Gaza. Israeli leaders want to push Hizbullah back from its positions in southern Lebanon far enough to create a buffer zone that would allow displaced Israelis to return to their abandoned homes in the country's north.
Some administration officials are "cautiously supportive of the strategy...[of] putting pressure on Hizbullah," said Matthew Levitt, an expert on Hizbullah at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy and a former U.S. counterterrorism official. "They are vigorously pursuing a diplomatic effort, but the leverage for it has been the Israeli escalation."
A senior Israeli official said the increased military operations in Lebanon in recent days were intended to persuade Hizbullah to negotiate and were not intended to start a br oader war. "The key element of this strategy is deterrence. We will not let Hizbullah drag us to a war of attrition. We do not seek war, but we will not and cannot be seen as deterred from it, because that will encourage Hizbullah to escalate."
Israeli officials are unapologetic about their escalating effort to hit Hizbullah. Israeli Ambassador to the UN Danny Danon said, "We are attacking our enemies in Lebanon, we are attacking Hamas in Gaza, and we are not in a position that we are waiting for the mercy of the world to support us." (Washington Post) - Iran's Khamenei Wants to Avoid a Larger Regional War - Steven Erlanger
After a series of humiliations, heightened by Israel's intensified attacks on Hizbullah, Iran faces clear dilemmas . It wants to restore deterrence against Israel while avoiding a full-scale war that could draw in the U.S. and, in combination, destroy the Islamic Republic at home.
It wants to preserve the proxies that provide what it calls forward defense against Israel - Hizbullah, Hamas and the Houthis in Yemen - without going into battle on their behalf. And it wants to get some of the punishing economic sanctions against it lifted by renewing nuclear negotiations with the West, while preserving its close military and trade relationships with Russia and China.
Israel has seized an opportunity to destroy or diminish two Iranian proxies: Hamas and Hizbullah. Suzanne Maloney, an Iran expert and director of the foreign policy program at the Brookings Institution, said Hizbullah is "disinclined to engage in a conflict that is likely to lead to its own destruction....Its capabilities and proximity to Israel are the first line of defense for the Islamic Republic, an d if it is destroyed, it leaves the Iranians significantly more vulnerable." (New York Times)
News Resources - Israel and the Mideast: - Netanyahu Says Reports of Imminent Ceasefire Are False, Denies Toning Down Lebanon Airstrikes
After media reports claimed a ceasefire in Lebanon was expected within hours, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's office said Thursday that these reports are incorrect. "This is an American-French proposal that the prime minister hasn't even responded to."
The statement also casts as "opposite from the truth" a report that Netanyahu has ord ered the IDF to tone down strikes in Lebanon, saying he has empowered the army to keep striking with full force, adding that fighting in Gaza also will continue until all the war goals are reached. (Times of Israel)
See also Netanyahu: Israel's Red Line Is to Kick Hizbullah North of the Litani River - Daniel Edelson
A source close to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Wednesday that "Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Minister Ron Dermer's red line is to kick Hizbullah to the north side of the Litani River. There are currently no negotiations." Earlier on Wednesday, Netanyahu said: "We are determined to return our residents in the north home safely. We are inflicting blows on Hizbullah that it never imagined."
Prime Minister Netanyahu has authorized negotiations, led by himself and Der mer, with the U.S. to consider a temporary cessation of attacks in Lebanon to facilitate ceasefire talks. An Israeli source noted, "We are approaching a crossroads of decisions on the war's trajectory." (Ynet News) - IDF Strike in Beirut Kills Hizbullah Missile Chief - Emanuel Fabian
Hizbullah fired 300 rockets at northern Israel on Tuesday, setting off sirens in Haifa, Safed, Nazareth, and Yokne'am as well as across the Galilee. In the Dahiyeh suburb of Beirut, Israel targeted and killed the head of Hizbullah's rocket and missile division, Ibrahim Qubaisi, alongside at least two other top commanders.
"Over the years and during the war, he was responsible for the launches at the Israeli home front. Qub aisi was a central source of knowledge in the field of missiles, and was close to the senior military leadership of Hizbullah," the IDF said. Qubaisi also planned Hizbullah's kidnapping attack on Mount Dov in 2000, in which IDF soldiers Benyamin Avraham, Adi Avitan, and Omar Sawaid were killed and abducted.
As Hizbullah continued to fire barrages of rockets deep into northern Israel, the IDF responded with airstrikes on hundreds of the sites where Hizbullah was hiding rockets and missiles ready for launch. A senior Israel Air Force officer said the widespread airstrikes were "changing the operational situation in the north, changing the reality."
He said the IAF is working to strike "all of their rocket capabilities, all of them." Hizbullah still has rocket capabilities, but they have been harmed significantly, he said. The IDF has also assessed that many Hizbullah operatives are among the dead reported in Lebanon. (Times of Israel) - IDF Has Struck over 2,000 Hizbullah Targets
IDF spokesperson Daniel Hagari said Wednesday that over 2,000 Hizbullah targets had been struck and that hundreds of terrorists had been killed during the campaign in Lebanon. (Jerusalem Post)
See also Israeli Air Force Strikes 75 Hizbullah Targets Wednesday Night - Yoav Zitun
The Israeli Air Force struck 75 targets belonging to Hizbullah in the Bekaa Valley and southern Lebanon on Wednesday night, including weapons storage facilities, ready-to-fire launchers, terrorists and terrorist infrastructure, the IDF spokesman said Thursday. (Ynet News) - Israeli UN Amb. Danon: Conflict Will End when Hizbullah Is Not on Israel's Border - Hannah Sarisohn
Israel's Ambassador to the UN Danny Danon held up an oversized photo of a Hizbullah rocket positioned inside a Lebanese home outside the General Assembly, showing how the group is using civilians in Lebanon to target civilians in Israel. "We will do whatever necessary to bring the [evacuated Israeli] residents back to the north," he said. "If they will not fire rockets into Israel, we will be able to bring our residents back to their communities."
When asked about a two-state solution, Danon asked why Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas hasn't condemned Hamas. "On the contrary, we see ministers in his government that support and celebrate what we have endured." (Jeru salem Post) - Israeli Officials, Northern Israel Residents: "Ceasefire with Hizbullah Ensures Next Oct. 7" - Eyal Green
Israeli officials and residents of northern Israel condemned a U.S.-French ceasefire proposal between Israel and Hizbullah. Metula Regional Council chairman David Azulai said the Israeli government must "remove the threat" to avoid another "Oct. 7 next year." Upper Galilee Regional Council chairman Amir Sofer said that while "there is a time for negotiations, this is not the time....We must not be misled by international pressure."
Former Israel Security Agency senior official Yossi Amrosi told Maariv that a three-week-long pause in the fighting is "a very long pause and will allow Hizbullah to reorganize." Opposition Leader Yair Lapid said Israel should not accept any proposal that does not see Hizbullah driven away from Israel's northern border. (Jerusalem Post)
Global Commentary and Think-Tank Analysis:
Hizbullah
- Biden Tilts at Hizbullah Windmills - Editorial
When President Biden told the UN General Assembly on Tuesday that "a diplomatic solution is still possible" with Hizbullah, we wonder where he's been for the past 11 months. Israel gave those months over to diplomacy on its northern front, even as Hizbullah fired 8,500 rockets and forced 60,000 Israelis f rom their homes. But the U.S.-led talks went nowhere as Mr. Biden pressed Israel not to hit Hizbullah too hard.
UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres warned Tuesday of Lebanon "becoming another Gaza." Nice of him to wake up. Since 2006, UN peacekeepers have done nothing to stop Hizbullah from taking over the Security Council-mandated buffer zone in southern Lebanon. Now Israel has to do it for them.
One lesson of Oct. 7 is that Israel can't let terrorists build up armies, even if they seem deterred. Northern Israel could never be safe if Hizbullah retains its arsenal. (Wall Street Journal) - Global Leaders Ignoring Hizbullah's Aggression - Herb Keinon
For the next four days, leader after leader will take the podium at the UN General Assembly meeting that opened on Tuesday and blast Israel for its recent actions against Hizbullah in Lebanon. For more than 11 months, many of those leaders were deafeningly silent as Hizbullah - with no provocation on Israel's part - sent rockets and drones into Israel as a show of solidarity with Hamas's barbaric attack on Oct. 7. Hizbullah's attacks were seen as a natural and even understandable show of solidarity with Hamas.
Those with real leverage over Hizbullah - first and foremost, Iran - have no incentive to push it to agree to a diplomatic solution that will lead to its withdrawal from southern Lebanon. This makes the continued IDF escalation almost inevitable. (Jerusalem Post) - Israel Faces Unavoidable Showdown with Hizbullah - Avi Issacharoff
Hizbullah appears more determi ned than ever to demonstrate its resilience and capability to strike Israel, even after losing thousands of operatives and senior leaders. Meanwhile, the Lebanese have watched the devastating images from Gaza and want to avoid similar destruction.
Israel will likely have to launch a ground offensive in Lebanon and seize significant territory to force Hizbullah to retreat north of the Litani River and stop the attacks on northern Israel, since Hizbullah leader Nasrallah will continue to fire rockets as long as he can. His priority is proving to Shiites worldwide, and particularly in Lebanon, that he is willing to fight Israel to the death. It seems Israel has little choice. (Ynet News) - Hizbullah Doesn't Care about Palestinians as Rocket Strike Shows - Bassem Eid
Hizbullah, the Shi'ite militia that holds Lebanon hostage, has always been perceived as an outside player in the Arab world for the way it scurries to carry water for its patron, Iran. While Hizbullah has always tried to portray itself as the foremost defender of the Palestinian cause, on Sep. 23, Hizbullah rockets came crashing down on the West Bank Palestinian town of Deir Istiya. It is time to see clearly that Iran and Hizbullah are not the champions of the Palestinian people but their bitterest enemies.
The writer is a Palestinian peace advocate, political analyst, and human rights pioneer who founded the Palestinian Human Rights Monitoring Group in 1996. (Newsweek) - Israelis Are Defending Their Right to Exist with Resilience, Resolve and Courage - Clifford D. May
Two of the Hizbullah leaders killed in precision Israeli airstrikes had been on America's "most wanted" list with multimillion-dollar bounties on their heads for truck bombings that killed more than 300 diplomats and military personnel serving on a peace mission in Beirut in 1983.
Nevertheless, it's become reflexive: Whatever actions Israelis take to deter and perhaps defeat their enemies - who declare that Jewish genocide is their aim - are denounced as unfair and illegal by UN officials and others who do not wish Israelis well.
Israelis are not retreating. They are defending their right to exist with resilience, resolve and courage. They are on the front lines in a war against the West. They are latter-day Davids using high-tech slingshots to battle a medieval Goliath. I think most Americans understand that and are becoming increasingly aware of what it would mean for an axis of Iranian jihadis, Russian imperialists, and Chinese Communists to defeat and destroy Israel and other free nations.
The writer is founder and president of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD). (Washington Times) - Israel's War Against Hizbullah Is a Righteous Necessity - Not a Needless Escalation - Rich Lowry
Since the Hamas atrocities on Oct. 7, Lebanon-based Hizbullah has fired 8,000 rockets at Israel, and we are told that Israel, finally hitting back in earnest, is dangerously escalating the situation. These indiscriminate attacks h ave forced tens of thousands of Israelis to flee the north of the country.
Israel has been focused on the war against Hamas, while the Biden administration has been working to stay its hand. Israel is expected to accept as background noise unprovoked attacks on its sovereign territory that no other state would ever abide. The assumption is that Israel's role is to duck and take whatever punishment its remorseless enemies dole out, lest things "escalate." Israel won't abide by these rules, and nor should it. The Jewish state is under no obligation to tolerate the intolerable. (New York Post) - Calling Nasrallah's Bluff: IDF Strikes Bring Turning Point in Israel-Hizbullah War - Seth J. Frantzman
It is likely that Israel's decision to call Hizbullah's bluff via massive airst rikes will be seen as a turning point in the conflict. Hizbullah has always threatened to rain down thousands of missiles a day on Israel and use new capabilities, including precision-guided munitions and drones. Hizbullah was seen as so powerful that any war with it would be devastating for Israel.
Hizbullah became arrogant and complacent. It also came to overly rely on Iran. Iran wants to preserve Hizbullah and, therefore, it is afraid of Hizbullah entering a major war. And now, the fear of Hizbullah has diminished. (Jerusalem Post) - Israel's Pager Attack Was Legal under the Laws of War - Alan Dershowitz
The international "community" and its academic justifiers have claimed that Israel's attacks on Hizbu llah communications devices are unlawful. They are dead wrong. The law is clear that if a person becomes a combatant, he is a legitimate military target. Becoming a combatant includes joining or assisting Hizbullah, harboring its terrorists, or allowing one's home or building to be used by Israel's enemies. The law is also clear that once someone becomes a combatant, he or she can be targeted as long as they retain that status.
If a person qualifies as a combatant, he or she may be targeted and killed while asleep, at work or at play. Combatants need not be actively involved in combat at the moment they are killed. Nor do they need to be actively committing terrorism when targeted. It is enough that they maintain the status of combatant. The individuals who were given beepers by Hizbullah were clearly combatants. Their deaths and injuries were lawful, even if they were shopping or walking when blown up.
The wri ter is professor emeritus at Harvard Law School. (The Hill)
Other Issues
- This Is a Battle for the West's Soul - Catherine Perez-Shakdam
In its most toxic form, anti-Zionism has become a vector for the glorification of Hamas, a terrorist organization recognized as such by the civilized world. Yet, on social media platforms, Hamas is hailed as a noble defender of the oppressed. Israel is painted as the genocidal aggressor while Hamas, whose charter explicitly calls for the destruction of the Jewish state, is recast as the champion of freedom.
The language of liberation, long associated with legitimate struggles for justice, has been co-opted by those with far darker agendas. Hamas's jihad, a call for holy war against the apostates, is now dressed in the colors of liberation and human rights.
Wrapped in rainbow flags and adorned with slogans about "freedom" and "resistance," the jihadist cause has become fashionable. Western liberal democracies are allowing these dangerous ideologies to flourish. By refusing to call out these narratives for what they are, we are inviting extremism to redraw the very norms upon which our societies are built. This is a battle for the soul of Western civilization. (Daily Express-UK)
Observations:
- The 2006 Israel-Hizbullah war concluded with a UN resolution that was supposed to disarm the terrorist militia and keep its forces far from Israel's border. The resolution did neither. Instead, a combination of international wishful thinking and the willfulness of Hizbullah's patrons in Tehran have brought us to where we are now.
- If the U.S. or Europeans want to create a buffer area between Israel and Hizbullah, they should deploy their own troops under a NATO flag, or perhaps invite Arab states to send forces, since the UN peacekeepers did nothing to prevent Hizbullah from placing its forces close to the Israeli border.
- Otherwise, the re-establishment of the Israeli-controlled security z one in southern Lebanon that existed from 1985 to 2000 might, for all the long-term problems it presents, be the least-bad alternative.
- The proper role for the U.S. in the crisis is not to seek a diplomatic solution. It's to help Israel win. Until al-Qaeda's attacks on Sept. 11, 2001, no terrorist group had murdered more Americans than Hizbullah. Israel's strike last week in Beirut, which killed Hizbullah commander Ibrahim Aqil, avenged the 1983 attacks there on the U.S. Embassy and Marine barracks, in which 258 Americans perished. Those crimes should neither be forgotten nor forgiven.
- Nor can it be in the interests of the West for a terrorist group with burgeoning ties to the Kremlin to maintain effective control of a Mediterranean state while it terrorizes its neighborhood. There is an American interest in checking the expansion of the Axis of Repression, that includes Iran, China, Russia and North Korea.
- We are now in the opening stages of yet another contest between the free and unfree worlds. In that fight, Israel is on our side and Hizbullah is on the other. We can't pretend to be neutral between them.
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