It is increasingly clear that the science, or perhaps it is an art, of home price forecasting could use some work. One year ago, in its report on November 2020 home prices, CoreLogic projected that the 7.5 percent annual appreciation reflected in those numbers would slow to 2.5 percent by November 2021. The results are in , and those November prices were up 18.1 percent year-over-year . Not beating up on CoreLogic. This has been a tough year to anticipate anything in the housing market and others have failed as well. During the National Association of Realtors December 2020 Real Estate Forecast Summit, the consensus of 23 economists was for prices to rise 8.0 percent last year. It was a 10-point miss. A pandemic, supply chain issues, soaring prices for building lots and materials, record low inventories; Nostradamus would be befuddled. Still, one wonders why analysts go so far out with their projections. Props for their courage. The 18.1 percent increase in November is actually a slight acceleration from than annual growth in September and October. CoreLogic put the increase at 18 percent in both months. The month-over-month change in November was 1.3 percent, identical to the September to October number. The company notes that 2021 was a record breaker for home price growth and, “for many prospective buyers the hot housing market will continue to exacerbate ongoing affordability challenges into the new year — and beyond.”
| Housing News | | November, Yet Another Month of Record Home Price Growth | | It is increasingly clear that the science, or perhaps it is an art, of home price forecasting could use some work. One year ago, in its report on November 2020 home prices, CoreLogic projected that the 7.5 percent annual appreciation reflected in tho... (read more) |
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| Mortgage Rates Hitting Even Higher Highs | | Mortgage rates had been drifting modestly higher in general in the past 2 weeks, but the pace is accelerating in the new year. For some lenders, this occurred yesterday in response to heavy selling in the bond market (mortgage rates are based primarily on bonds). Those lenders were forced to raise rates just a bit more today as bonds continued to... (read more) |
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| 30 Yr. Fixed Rate | | 3.35% +0.00% |
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| Rate | Change | Points |
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| Mortgage News Daily | | 30 Yr. Fixed | 3.35% | 0.00 | 0.40 | | 15 Yr. Fixed | 2.70% | 0.00 | 0.40 | | 30 Yr. FHA | 2.98% | 0.00 | 0.00 | | 30 Yr. Jumbo | 3.24% | 0.00 | 0.00 | | 5/1 ARM | 3.75% | 0.00 | 0.50 | | Updates Daily - Last Update: 1/4 |
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| 15 Yr. Fixed Rate | | 2.70% +0.00% |
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| Rate | Change | Points |
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| Freddie Mac | | 30 Yr. Fixed | 3.11% | +0.06 | 0.70 | | 15 Yr. Fixed | 2.33% | +0.03 | 0.70 | | 5/1 Yr. ARM | 2.41% | +0.04 | 0.50 | | Updates Weekly - Last Update: 12/30 |
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| Mortgage Bankers Assoc. | | 30 Yr. Fixed | 3.30% | -0.01 | 0.43 | | 15 Yr. Fixed | 2.63% | +0.01 | 0.31 | | 30 Yr. Jumbo | 3.27% | -0.06 | 0.35 | | Updates Weekly - Last Update: 12/8 |
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| MBS Live Recap: Bonds Still Selling, But at a Slower Pace | | Bonds Still Selling, But at a Slower Pace In terms of volume, participation, and holiday closures, today was the most normal trading day in the bond market for several weeks. That was a more unfortunate fact earlier in the day as bonds hit their weakest levels in more than a month. Even at the 3pm CME close, Tr... (read more) |
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| UMBS 30YR 2.5 | | 101.55 -0.02 |
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| Price / Yield | Change |
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| MBS | | UMBS 2.5 | 101.55 | -0.02 | | UMBS 3.0 | 103.36 | +0.03 | | GNMA 2.5 | 102.09 | +0.05 | | GNMA 3.0 | 103.20 | -0.02 | | Pricing as of: 1/4 5:21PM EST |
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| 10 Year US Treasury | | 1.6507 +0.0140 |
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| Price / Yield | Change |
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| US Treasury | | 2 YR Treasury | 0.762 | -0.014 | | 5 YR Treasury | 1.359 | -0.002 | | 7 YR Treasury | 1.565 | +0.008 | | 10 YR Treasury | 1.651 | +0.014 | | 30 YR Treasury | 2.067 | +0.036 | | Pricing as of: 1/4 5:21PM EST |
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