Dalio’s Bridgewater said stocks have further to fall | SocGen and Bernstein are pairing up |

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Today's big stories

  1. Ray Dalio’s hedge fund decided to sit tight, predicting stocks will keep on sliding
  2. Berkshire Hathaway upped its stakes in Japanese commodity firms, and you can trade the same companies without spending billions – Read Now
  3. Société Générale and AllianceBernstein announced a joint stock business

Dalio’s Buckling Up

Dalio’s Buckling Up

What’s Going On Here?

Legendary hedge fund manager Ray Dalio said stocks are going to keep dropping, with a few key metrics suggesting we’ve not yet hit rock bottom.

What Does This Mean?

Ray Dalio’s $140-billion hedge fund reckons stocks have further to fall. After all, markets are dropping because seemingly unstoppable inflation is set to collide with an immovable recession. And when that happens, Dalio says a few key boxes need to be ticked before share prices return to an upward trajectory. First of all, the economy needs to be in a clear and steady decline, and that’s not happening just yet, despite the tearful headlines. Second, interest rates need to be falling – that one’s a definite nope. And third, stock returns need to look as tempting as a 2pm nap when the coffee wears off. Those three misses make a strikeout according to the umpires at Bridgewater, who see stocks sliding even further.

Why Should I Care?

The bigger picture: It’s not gospel.
Expert analysts at institutions like Bridgewater earn a pretty penny for their efforts, but their big paychecks don’t mean they’re always right: for every ace investor counting on one outcome, there’s another betting on the opposite. Differences of opinion make a market, so soak up expert opinion, but make sure you’ve got a few grains of salt to hand when you do. In the end, it’s your money on the line.

Zooming out: Say he’s right.
Investing’s about staying ahead of the game. If you think Dalio’s right – that is, you think stocks won’t hit rock bottom until interest rates ease and a recession sets in – then the iShares US Treasury Bond exchange-traded fund (ETF) could be what you’re looking for. Bonds tend to do well during recessions, and the ETF’s 14% cheaper this year thanks to the ever-climbing interest rates that keep sapping its price.

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Analyst Take

Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway Has A Monstrous Japanese Bet

Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway Has A Monstrous Japanese Bet

By Russell Burns, Analyst

If you had an investing moodboard, you’d probably have at least four photos of Warren Buffett surrounded by pink hearts.

Well, Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway has just upped its stakes in the five biggest Japanese commodity-trading companies.

That’s not surprising when they’ve returned some out-of-this-world returns in the last two years – and when you take into account the long-term factors propping up the sector.

So that’s today’s Insight: why Berkshire believes in Japanese commodity firms, and whether you should too.

Read or listen to the Insight here

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Getting Pally

Getting Pally

What’s Going On Here?

The long-touted joint venture between Société Générale’s and AllianceBernstein’s stock businesses appears to be going ahead, according to news out on Tuesday.

What Does This Mean?

The world of professional stock investing hasn’t been a happy place in recent years. The rise and rise of cheap, index-based investing has thrown a wet blanket on professional investment services, and the toxic spillover has splashed firms that cater to professional investors, as Société Générale (SocGen) and Bernstein do. The “strategic” reason for the venture, then, is that SocGen, strong in trading, and AllianceBernstein, strong in research, go together like peanut butter and jelly. But the deal’s probably a bid for strength in unity too, with the firms hoping their combined weight will keep them rooted amid the gale-force industry headwinds.

Why Should I Care?

For markets: Being clued-up will cost you.
Knowledge is expensive, at least for professional investors: a 2018 European rule change meant they could no longer use their clients’ cash to cover the fees they pay for research. So faced with the prospect of reaching into their own pockets, thrifty fund managers started hacking at the prices they paid research firms. That left the used-and-abused companies with a choice: ramp up the caliber and, in turn, their prices, or change their focus. SocGen originally chose to leave the business behind, but it looks like the firm couldn't stay gone for long.

The bigger picture: Where pros go, retail follows.
Retail investors have a long list of cheap and easy trading avenues to choose from, so services really need to stand out from the crowd if they want to bring in users. One method’s proven popular so far: adding thought-provoking, actionable insights to a platform. If nothing else, the spate of deals in the pro world shows that quality research is still highly valued. Now, where could a retail investor find a platform bursting with world-class, bite-sized Insights… *cough cough*.

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