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| Wednesday, July 31, 2024 |
| It's Cowboys Day! |
| Before diving into Fantasy analysis for each team, I'll present a brief overview containing their offensive ranks in my baseline team projections as well as any notable coaching or offensive line changes. |
| Projected Offensive Plays – (1st) |
| Projected Passing TDs – 30.9 (3rd) |
| Projected Rushing TDs – 16.6 (24th) |
| Notable coaching changes: |
| Hired Mike Zimmer as defensive coordinator |
| Notable offensive line changes |
| Lost tackle Tyron Smith and center Tyler Biadasz in free agencyDrafted tackle Tyler Guyton in Round 1 and guard Cooper Beebe in Round 3. Also drafted a guard in Round 7 |
| Smith is a huge loss. His presumed replacement, while drafted in Round 1, never has played on the left side of the line and only spent the final two years of his collegiate career playing tackle. He's an exciting prospect with athletic traits, but he has big shoes to fill as Dak Prescott's new left tackle. |
| Beebe is also expected to make a positional transition to fill the center spot following the departure of Biadasz. The guard spots are locked down by All-Pro Zack Martin and third-year Tyler Smith , a former Round 1 selection who has posted nearly identical PFF grades to Martin since entering the league. Playing alongside those two might allow the rookies to more successfully transition to the pros, which would still leave the right tackle spot as a question mark. Dallas has at times received passable play from UDFA tackle Terence Steele; 2023 was not one of those times. Steele allowed the third-most pressures of any offensive lineman in 2023. |
| All things considered, this line feels extremely risky. There is absolutely enough talent to make things work, but it could all fall apart if either guard were to miss time with injury. Dallas is putting a lot of faith in the hands of a couple of 23-year-old rookies. |
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| Dak Prescott Appreciation Day |
| Last week, we held Brock Purdy Appreciation Day in this space as we explored the San Francisco 49ers projections. I think that Dak has graduated from the overlooked and underappreciated but highly productive status that Purdy remains stuck in, but I'm still not so sure that people fully realize how good of a player Prescott is. |
| As I mentioned, the Cowboys had a starting lineman who was responsible for one of the highest pressure totals allowed in 2023. It didn't matter much, as Prescott was better when pressured than at any point in his career. In fact, Prescott was the league's best QB against pressure according to several metrics. Only Purdy averaged more Fantasy points per dropback against pressure, and Prescott delivered the most catchable ball when pressured. |
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| Prescott was also among the league's best as a deep passer in 2023. |
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| Only Purdy scored more points on passes that traveled 15 or more yards in the air beyond the line of scrimmage. Prescott was incredible in 2023, and the Cowboys have some of the most gaudy passing numbers of any team in my 2024 projections. Prescott is one of the most undervalued players at any position in Superflex dynasty leagues and is again a rock-solid pick for season-long leagues. |
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| The Cowboys offense seemed to give up on the ground game in 2023 |
| Below, you'll find the fourth thing that I learned from Jared Smola of DraftSharks.com, in his article "132 things that I learned while creating 2024 projections." Over the 11 games following the bye week, the 2023 Cowboys passed at one of the highest rates in the NFL . Tony Pollard proved ineffective as a bellcow running back and Dallas seemed to decide to simply cut their losses and focus on what was working the -- pass game. |
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| After watching Dallas completely ignore the RB position this offseason, I have the Cowboys tied with the Tennessee Titans for the third-lowest projected run rate in 2024. I only have the Chiefs and Bengals projected to pass at a higher rate. |
| The least interesting running back battle in the NFL |
| Ezekiel Elliott and his 2,421 career NFL touches, entering his ninth season at the ripe age of 29 (I thought he was like 32, to be honest), or the undrafted Rico Dowdle who has garnered a total of 113 touches across four pro seasons? That is the question, and Fantasy drafters everywhere eagerly await the answer! |
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| Oh, you are not eager to see who leads this backfield? |
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| Me either. |
| My guess is that Ezekiel Elliott is the player who is trusted more on passing downs and when in the red zone. Even if Dowdle has incrementally more juice than Elliott at this point in their careers, I'm not so sure that it matters. There is a slight chance that Zeke is so far gone that the only logical choice is to let Dowdle assume a full-time role, but that feels unlikely. Zeke played a lot last year, and that has been the case for him at every stop in his career. |
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| My guess is that Zeke is the player who is theoretically worth rostering from the Dallas backfield. I expect the Cowboys to mostly focus on the aerial attack and trust Zeke to be on the same page as Prescott and provide the best last line of defense -- a protector role, which may be vital if the tackle spots are an issue. |
| CeeDee Lamb continues to reach new heights |
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| I created a Twitter thread to display just how impressive Lamb's career arc has been. You can find the full thread here. This stat about his performance vs. man coverage capped it off: |
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| Studs. JuJu Smith-Schuster might not seem like he belongs on this list, but he was absolutely nasty early in his career before knee injuries sapped him of his explosiveness. This is a list full of studs. Lamb sits atop the list. He's the most valuable player in Dynasty formats, in my opinion (not including Superflex formats, in which case it is of course the GOAT Patrick Mahomes). |
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| In my opinion, there is a clear top-three for 2024 season-long drafts, with Christian McCaffrey being the player I would select first overall and Lamb and Tyreek Hill ranking as 1B and 1C. These three players are the most likely to produce 400+ PPR points. My median projection for Lamb is 371 PPR points, that is so freaking insane. |
| Jake Ferguson is your TE savior if you miss out on the top names |
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| Another gem from my guy Jared Smola: |
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| Ferguson projects for 210 PPR points if healthy for 17 games. That would have finished as the TE5 in Fantasy in 2023. And that projection only includes 5.1 touchdowns. There is potential for much more than that. That accounts for 16.5% of the Dallas passing touchdowns. For reference, Dalton Schultz's receiving touchdown share during his time with the Cowboys sat between 16-20% each season. Ferguson's red zone target share in 2023 was 25%. He could push his receiving touchdown share north of 20%, which would allow him to sneakily offer top-five Fantasy TE upside. |
| My projections paint a far more optimistic picture for Ferguson's range of outcomes than Evan Engram or David Njoku . After the top tight ends are off of the board, Ferguson is the next guy up for me. His combination of target and touchdown upside in this pass-first offense seems like the most-likely projection profile to deliver a top-five Fantasy TE output among the tight ends drafted after George Kittle. |
| I'll be back in your inbox every weekday with a new team preview during the month of July and into the first week of August! Thursday, we will be covering the Washington Commanders. If you have any feedback on the team-by-team previews or any questions about the upcoming teams, feel free to send them my way. |
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| | | | | International Friendly | | USL | Two international giants face off in a summer match tonight at 8 PM ET on the Golazo Network and streaming on Paramount+.
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