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| Friday, January 6, 2023 |
| Welcome to the Friday edition of the Pick Six Newsetter! |
| I'm not sure how it happened, but we've finally reached the end of the NFL regular season. In less than 72 hours, not only will the regular season be over, but we'll also know who's moving on to the playoffs. |
| Speaking of the playoffs, the newsletter is coming to you a little late today because we decided to hold off on sending it out due to the fact that the NFL's 32 owners were going to vote on making some major modifications to the AFC playoffs today. That vote went down at noon ET and both proposals were approved, which means the AFC playoffs will have a slightly different look this year. |
| We'll be covering those playoffs modifications in today's newsletter, plus we'll be talking about Damar Hamlin, who made a huge step in his recovery this morning. |
| Remember, if you're hanging out with family and/or friends this weekend, you should tell them all to sign up for the newsletter. To get them signed up, all you have to do is click here and then share this link with them. All right, let's get to the rundown. |
| 1. Today's show: Best bets for Week 18 |
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| For today's podcast, Will Brinson rounded up R.J. White and Pete Prisco so they could argue about who's going to win every game being played this weekend, even the ones that don't matter. |
| The three guys spent nearly 60 minutes going over the best bets for every single game in Week 18, and we're going to cover three picks from each person below. |
| Pete Prisco (1-2 last week in picks covered here, 30-20-1 on the season) |
| Saints (-3.5) to cover against the PanthersJaguars (-6) to cover against the TitansChiefs at Raiders OVER 52.5 points |
| R.J. White (2-1 last week in picks covered here, 29-20-2 on the season) |
| Raiders (+9.5) to cover against the ChiefsSteelers (-2.5) to cover against the BrownsGiants (+14) to cover against the Eagles |
| Will Brinson (1-1 last week in picks covered here, 25-24-1 on the season) |
| Commanders (+7) to cover against the CowboysPackers (-4.5) to cover against the LionsSteelers (-2.5) to cover against the Browns |
| To hear what the rest of the best bets are for Week 18 -- and there are quite a few -- you can check out the episode on YouTube by clicking here. |
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| 2. Damar Hamlin is off his breathing tube and now talking |
| For the first time this week, Damar Hamlin's medical team gave an update on his recovery and nearly everything they had to say was encouraging. During a press conference that lasted nearly 60 minutes on Thursday, two doctors -- William Knight IV and Timothy Pritts -- answered dozens of questions about Hamlin's current condition. |
| The Bills also announced on Friday that Hamlin has taken a pivotal step in his recovery. |
| Here's the latest on Hamlin: |
| Hamlin's breathing tube was removed on Thursday night. During the press conference, which was held at 1:30 p.m. ET on Thursday, the doctors said the next big step for Hamlin would be the removal of the breathing tube. "When we reach 0% support, breathing tube comes out. And then we define that as success," Dr. Pritts said. Just hours after those comments were made, the breathing tube was actually removed! The Bills announced Friday morning that the breathing tube was removed overnight. The team also announced that Hamlin is now speaking and has even been able to Facetime several teammates over the past few hours.Hamlin has been communicating with doctors since Wednesday night. Not only does Hamlin have his neurological functions back, but he's actually been communicating with his medical team since Wednesday night. "It's not only that the lights are on. We know that he's home. It appears all the cylinders are firing within his brain," Dr. Pritts said, via the Bills website.Hamlin's first question was about the game. During his first communication with his medical team -- which was written on a piece of paper -- Hamlin asked his doctors who won the Bills-Bengals game. Their response? "You've won. You've won the game of life."Medical team is hoping that Hamlin will make a full recovery. Hamlin's doctors sounded hopeful that the Bills safety will be able to make a 100% recovery without any long-term impact to his health. Here's what they had to say when asked about the best-case scenario for his recovery: "The best is getting him to the way he was at [8 p.m. ET] on Monday evening. Is completely neurologically intact, strong, good lung function, no cardiac dysfunction with his heart. The best outcome would be back to who he was before this all happened," Dr. Knight said. |
| Although the doctors sounded optimistic that Hamlin would make a full recovery, they didn't want to put a timeline on when that might happen. "As long as it takes and whatever you need. And so from our standpoint, we will continue to give him all the support and intensive physician, ICU and respiratory care that he needs," Dr. Pritts said. |
| In other Hamlin news, the Bills spoke with the media on Thursday for the first time since Hamlin's injury. |
| Josh Allen said things got emotional on Thursday after the team received a positive update on Hamlin's health. "Mario, [Hamlin's father], talking to us as a team, he kind of told us -- demanded us -- [to play for his son], and you can't not honor his request to go out there and charge forward to the best of our abilities," Allen told the media . "Today's news was a lot of tears of joy, but ... that's what he wants, that's what his dad wants, and guys are excited to get out there. ... We wanna go out there and play for 3. It'll be a huge driving force."Allen also noted that it's been a long week for his team. "You lose sleep. You're hurt for your brother," Allen said, via ESPN.com. "A lot of shared grief, but, to the question before, getting updates and positive updates eases so much of that pain and that tension that you feel." Allen asked that people stop attacking Tee Higgins. The Bengals receiver has been getting some criticism on social media -- and from Bart Scott -- for allegedly making a dirty hit on Hamlin. Josh Allen isn't buying that. At the end of his press conference, Allen brought up the Higgins situation without even being asked about it. "I do want to say one more thing," Allen said. "I haven't reached out to Tee [Higgins], [but] I saw some stuff on Twitter. People should not be attacking him whatsoever, and I'm glad that Damar's family came out and said that. Hopefully, he found some relief today because that's a football play. I hope that he doesn't hold that upon himself because there's nothing else he could have done in that situation. I just wanted to say that, too." |
| For more on Hamlin's remarkable recovery, be sure to click here. |
| 3. Two major modifications coming to AFC playoffs |
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| After officially cancelling the Bills-Bengals game on Thursday night, the NFL put two proposals on the table for modifying the AFC playoffs, and both of those proposals were approved on Friday afternoon. Since the Bills and Bengals will finish the season by playing one less game than the other teams in the AFC, the league felt it needed to change the setup for the playoffs. |
| Under the first proposal that was voted through, the AFC Championship will now be played at a neutral site if any of the three following scenarios are met: |
| Scenario 1: If Buffalo and Kansas City both win or both tie in Week 18, then a Buffalo vs. Kansas City championship game would be at a neutral site.Scenario 2: If the Bills and Chiefs both lose in Week 18 and Baltimore wins or ties with the Bengals, then a Buffalo vs. Kansas City championship game would be at a neutral site.Scenario 3: If Buffalo and Kansas City both lose and Cincinnati beats Baltimore, then a Bills or Bengals vs. Chiefs championship game would be at a neutral site. |
| The NFL is also giving the Ravens a chance to possibly host a wild-card game even though Baltimore will be finishing in second place in the AFC North no matter what happens on Sunday against the Bengals. Even if the Ravens win, that would put them at 11-6, which would still be a half game behind the Cincinnati, who would finish 11-5 with a loss. |
| Under that scenario, the Ravens wouldn't win the division even though they swept the Bengals AND had a better division record. To fix that problem, the owners have approved a proposal that will call for a coin flip to determine the host of a potential Bengals-Ravens wild-card game. The coin flip would only happen if both scenarios below are met: |
1. The Ravens beat the Bengals on Sunday, and ...
2. If the two teams are scheduled to play each other in the wild-card round. |
| With the two proposals now approved, that means the Bengals might not host a wild-card game even though they won the AFC North. Not surprisingly, the Bengals were the one team that was vehemently against the two proposals. Katie Blackburn, executive vice president of the Bengals, even sent out a memo trying to get teams to vote against the proposals, CBS Sports NFL Insider Jonathan Jones reported Friday. |
| Even though the Bengals definitely voted no, it seemed that everyone else voted yes, which means there could be a neutral-site AFC title game this year. |
| One upside for the Bengals is that they definitely won't have to deal with Lamar Jackson, who has been ruled out for Sunday's game. If Cincinnati beats Baltimore, then the Bengals will host a playoff game and won't have to worry about a coin flip. |
| Speaking of the playoffs, there are a lot of clinching scenarios for this weekend and you can check out all of them by clicking here. |
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| 4. Bold predictions for Week 18: AFC South gets two teams in the playoffs |
| There's nothing we love here more than making bold predictions, so we asked Tyler Sullivan to come up with some for Week 18. |
| With that in mind, let's take a look at his predictions: |
| Titans and Jaguars both make playoffs. "Saturday night's matchup between the Titans and Jaguars may determine the winner of the AFC South, but it doesn't necessarily mean that the loser is ousted from postseason consideration. In fact, there is a wild scenario where BOTH of these teams make it to the playoffs, which is what we predict will occur in Week 18. First, Tennessee will pull off the upset and beat the Jaguars on Saturday to secure the AFC South crown. After that, the Jags need three things to happen to get the wild card: The Patriots have to lose to the Bills, the Dolphins have to lose to the Jets and the Steelers have to lose to the Browns. And the football gods will be kind to them as this scenario will play out just as they need it." Bears land the No. 1 overall pick. "If the Texans defeat the Colts and Chicago falls to the Minnesota Vikings on Sunday, the Bears will jump up to the top pick in the draft this spring. The Bears have already ruled out Justin Fields for this matchup against the Vikings due to a hip injury and it'll be Nathan Peterman who'll wrap up the season under center, so that feels like a loss for the Bears. As for the other piece of the equation, the Colts are less than a field-goal favorite at home against the Texans, so this should be looked at as a legitimate coin flip between these AFC South rivals."Browns end Steelers' playoff hopes. "Cleveland has been eliminated from playoff contention for a while, but they've still been playing hard down the stretch as they continue to lay the foundation for 2023 with Deshaun Watson. In the second half of last week's win over Washington, the lightbulb may have turned on. Watson threw three touchdowns over the final two quarters of that win, which were more than his first four starts with the Browns combined. If he is starting to look like the QB we remember from his days with the Texans, and Cleveland's defense -- allowing 14 points per game in the last six games (second-best in the NFL) -- continues to play at a high level, they'll put Pittsburgh on upset alert." |
| For a full look at all five of Sullivan's bold predictions, be sure to click here. |
| 5. NFL Week 18 picks: Bills and Bengals both get emotional wins |
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| I have some good news and some bad news today. The bad news is that this is the final newsletter of the regular season, but the good news is that we're going to end things with a bang because we've got more picks coming your way. |
| To be precise, we've got four more Week 18 picks for you, and those will be coming from NFL senior writer Pete Prisco, along with Jordan Dajani, Tyler Sullivan and myself. |
| Here's how things are going to work: I'm going to give you one pick from each guy and then direct you to the rest of their picks. That way, if you like their pick, you'll be able to read the rest of them, but if they pick against your favorite team, you can ignore the rest of their picks and move on. |
| Pete Prisco -- Bills (-7) 33-21 over Patriots. From Prisco: "The Bills are coming off the suspended game Monday night and have had to handle the mental part of having a fallen teammate in Damar Hamlin. Getting past that will be tough. But I expect the Bills to play well here and all but end New England's playoff chances." For the rest of Prisco's Week 18 picks, be sure to click here. Tyler Sullivan -- Jaguars (-6) 27-20 over Titans. From Sullivan: "The Titans are 0-8 against current playoff teams this season and the Jaguars feel like a playoff team." For the rest of Sullivan's Week 18 picks, be sure to click here.Jordan Dajani -- Bengals (-7) 20-10 over Ravens. From Dajani: "The Bengals have won and covered in seven straight games since losing to the Browns in Week 8, and are an incredible 20-3 ATS in their last 23 games played! Why would I bet against them now in an important divisional matchup at home?" For the rest of Dajani's Week 18 best bets, be sure to click here.John Breech -- Steelers (-2.5) 22-19 over Browns. For the second straight year, the Steelers are going to need a miracle to get in the playoffs, and for the second straight year, I think that miracle is going to happen. In 2021, the Steelers needed the 13-point underdog Jaguars to upset the Colts in the final week of the season, and that's exactly what happened. This year, the Steelers need to beat the Browns and then get some help from the Bills and Jets, who have to beat the Patriots and Dolphins. If those three things happen, then the Steelers will be punching their ticket to the postseason and I think that's all going to happen. For the rest of my Week 18 picks, be sure to click here. |
| Although I originally picked the Jets to beat the Dolphins, I don't feel as great about my pick as I did 24 hours ago. The Jets announced on Friday that Mike White won't be playing and that JOE FLACCO will be starting on Sunday. However, I still like the Jets because I think their defense is going to eat up rookie Skyler Thompson, who will be starting for the Dolphins. |
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| 6. NFL MVP Watch: Patrick Mahomes looks like the favorite |
| As we get ready to head into the final week of the regular season, it's starting to look like the MVP race might be over, at least based on our latest CBSSports.com writers' poll. |
| To figure out who has the upper hand right now, we rounded up 10 CBSSports.com writers and had them vote on who they think will win the MVP. Under the new voting rules this year, the 50 media members who vote on the award will each get to name up to five players on their ballot, so that's exactly how we handled the voting with our ballots. |
| Based on the way our vote went, it's starting to feel like Patrick Mahomes is going to walk away with his second MVP in five seasons. |
| Here's a look at our top five MVP candidates, along with their point total in the vote. (A player got five points for a first-place vote, four points for a second-place vote and so on.) |
1. Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes (53)
2. Bengals QB Joe Burrow (36)
3. Eagles QB Jalen Hurts (30)
4. Bills QB Josh Allen (27)
5. Vikings WR Justin Jefferson (9) |
| Overall, a total of nine players received at least one vote, including two defensive players, which I'm only noting because only two defensive players have ever won the award (Alan Page in 1971 and Lawrence Taylor in 1986). If you want to see a full list of every player who got at least one vote, then be sure to click here. |
| The real MVP vote will actually be happening next week and once those votes are tabulated, the winner will be announced Feb. 9 at the NFL Honors show in Phoenix. |
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