| Dear Reader, When it comes to delivering surprises, the SIC never disappoints. Yesterday, on Day 2 of our Virtual SIC 2020, we saw a rare family reunion, a historical tour de force, and a heated discussion in the least likely corner. The day started off with a fireside chat between Charles and Louis Gave and Anatole Kaletsky, all three from Gavekal. Due to their busy schedules and different locations, we hadn’t been able to get Charles Gave and his son Louis on the same stage for years—but the Virtual SIC made it possible. They had a fascinating conversation about the post-COVID short-, medium-, and long-term outlook for the US and global economies. Anatole, Gavekal co-founder and chief economist, stated clearly that he is bearish on the next one to three months but bullish on the next one to three years, expecting “a strong period for stocks, credit, cash, bonds, and gold.” Then, by the mid-2020s, he thinks we’ll see renewed economic weakness. The three-way conversation then merged into a Q&A with John Mauldin and finally the Europe panel, where the three Gavekals were joined by veteran investor and former Barron’s Roundtable member Felix Zulauf and geopolitical expert George Friedman. Both Felix and George voiced their conviction that the European Union is one step away from collapse. George pointed out that “there is no European interest.” During the COVID crisis, we’ve seen that the ECB wouldn’t come to Italy’s rescue and that each country has its own interests at heart. Felix added that the Germans are very unhappy about paying the price for the weaker countries’ debts, which could lead to increased political unrest and a widening rift between the northern and southern EU members. Later in the day, George Friedman, who is the most clear-sighted person I know when it comes to connecting the dots in geopolitics and US foreign policy, took the audience on a trip through history. He showed how two immensely powerful cycles—an institutional cycle that changes every 80 years and a socioeconomic cycle that changes every 50 years—happen to bottom simultaneously at this very point in time. This makes us witnesses to a momentous and volatile period in history... and “COVID simply put this crisis on steroids.” After these power presentations—and two more from Jim Bianco and grand master of economics, Woody Brock—I’d honestly thought the day couldn’t get any better. But the biggest surprise came when we launched the Monetary Policy & Debt Panel with Lacy Hunt, Woody Brock, Jim Bianco, Sam Rines, and Rene Aninao as the moderator. Spirits and tempers ran high as these world-renowned economists sparred with each other. While some agreed that negative interest rates were baked in the cake at this point, others didn’t think so and vehemently made their point. They also disagreed on the impact of the Fed’s monetary policy and other matters. If you always thought economists were the calm and placid sort, you’ll soon see otherwise. You can watch all this—plus three more live days of the Virtual SIC 2020—when you order your Pass today. For a short time, you can save 50%. That includes the remaining live sessions as well as videos and MP3s of all presentations and panels, plus transcripts and slides. Do not miss this opportunity to enjoy one of the most important (and thrilling) SICs of all time. Tomorrow, we’ll see our China panel, with Rene Aninao, Michael Pettis, Jonathan Ward, and Mark Yusko as moderator. We’ll also see Neil Howe of The Fourth Turning fame, our own Jared Dillian, and Ian Bremmer of GZERO Media and Eurasia Group take the virtual stage. Click here to become a part of the Virtual SIC 2020 experience now. Sincerely, Ed D'Agostino
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