| Good morning Voornaam, It's been a very busy week of local company news! Yesterday was another banger, with a solid overview available to you in Ghost Mail this morning.
Anglo American was surely the biggest story, with the De Beers disaster getting even worse. I've been writing about lab grown diamonds for the past 18 months and those chickens are firmly roosting now. If the impairment of that business scared you, wait until you see the discount rate they used to calculate it. In my opinion, the impairment should be materially higher.
Anglo isn't the only tough story today. I'm afraid that Adcock Ingram, AECI, Barloworld and Mondi all had less-than-appetising numbers to share. For all the excitement around Blue Label Telecoms, HEPS was flat for the period. Heck, even Gold Fields had an air of disappointment around it, as they should've done so much better in a year where the gold price was shining brightly.
It was Tiger Brands who stood out to me as the solid performance on the day. Although group revenue growth is modest, they are pushing hard for efficiencies and margins are heading in the right direction as a result. Equites Property Fund also had a decent story to tell, with the group on track for full-year guidance.
Finally, Hulamin is a great example of how tariffs are inflationary. They've commented on the expected impact of tariff changes on their US exports.
There's plenty here for you to sink your teeth into. Enjoy your Ghost Bites here>>>
ETFs are a popular choice in portfolios and with good reason. They should form the backbone of any equity portfolio, giving investors broad market exposure at a low cost. The team from Satrix has brought us some fascinating stats this morning about growth in ETFs globally and locally. Get them in this article>>>
I have a particularly interesting episode of Magic Markets to share with you today. In light of the recent narrative (and outright fighting on the socials) around the local agriculture sector and the impact of the geopolitical storm with the US, we invited Wandile Sihlobo onto the show to give us the real story of what's happening not just on the ground, but in the ground in our agri sector. This the balanced view you've been looking for, far removed from all the noise online. Get it here>>>
In DealMakers, the results from the Annual Awards are in! You can get them here, along with summaries of local M&A and local corporate finance activity. There's also a piece on evaluating the risk-free rate in Africa's frontier markets, for those who enjoy a more technical read.
Have a great Friday - we will see you on Sunday for Ghost Mail Weekender!
PS: Afrimat will be presenting on Unlock the Stock next week Thursday. Get it in your diaries nice and early and remember to register to attend here>>> |
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| INVESTEC: International Opportunities Limited - a Chinese equity structured product |
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| China is a land that is fraught with risk and brimming with opportunity. With enhanced upside as well as downside protection, International Opportunities Limited is a structured product that seeks to balance the risks and rewards available in Chinese equity markets.
International Opportunities Limited offers 1.3x geared exposure to the CSI 300 Index, capped at 60% growth for a maximum return of 78% in USD. In addition, there is 100% capital protection at maturity in USD.
Japie Lubbe of Investec Structured Products joined me to discuss the structure in detail. Get it here>>> |
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| SATRIX: 2025 kick-off and fresh views on rent vs. buy |
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| | | Covering a range of personal finance topics and emerging trends in investing, your 2025 kick-off with Duma Mxenge from Satrix is here.
And of course, we couldn't resist talking about property. This led to an in-depth discussion on how I'm approaching the rent vs. buy conundrum.
Enjoy it here>>> |
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| GHOST WRAP: Retailers on sale on the JSE - a review of the first few weeks of 2025 |
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| The retail sector got off to a very poor start in 2025. With practically the entire sector down, are there stocks that were punished more than they should've been?
This podcast is a useful summary of recent retail updates across the clothing and grocery sectors, as well as other relevant areas.
You can find the recording and the transcript (with charts) at this link>>> |
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| GHOST BITES - Making sense of SENS on the local market |
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| | | On another busy day of news, we saw updates from Adcock Ingram, AECI, Anglo American, Barloworld, Blue Label Telecoms, Equites Property Fund, Gold Fields, Hulamin, Mondi and Tiger Brands Get the details in Ghost Bites>>> |
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| DOMINIQUE OLIVIER - Woodstock '99: a recipe for a riot |
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| What do you get when you combine an unused airforce base, 220,000 teenagers, a couple of angry nu metal bands and some very expensive water? Part concert, part scene from an apocalyptic movie, the Woodstock festival that took place in 1999 was practically doomed from the start. Read it here>>> |
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| Budget 2025 - what to expect (surprisingly, still a relevant show...) |
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| | | In this special edition of No Ordinary Wednesday, Investec experts Chief Economist Annabel Bishop, Treasury Economist Tertia Jacobs and Chief Investment Strategist Chris Holdsworth share their predictions for Budget 2025. Find this insightful episode here>>> |
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| International Business Snippet: |
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| Alibaba is enjoying a far more positive narrative these days, with a 11% jump in the share price driven by a recovery in China's eCommerce sector. Revenue beat estimates and net income came in way above expectations.
Alibaba is exposed not only to a recovering Chinese consumer, but also to AI and cloud adoption outside of the US. In a world of Big Data, geopolitical mistrust remains a major feature of the landscape. Alibaba offers a friendly alternative for Chinese firms and those who are cautious of working with US tech companies. With Trump as an increasingly polarising factor in the world, that's not a bad place for Alibaba to be!
Our latest research in Magic Markets Premium is on The Trade Desk, a company that sits right at the heart of the omni-channel advertising space. By connecting agencies with a variety of advertising opportunities for their clients, the company enjoys wonderful growth tailwinds. It also trades at an insane multiple, which makes the analysis harder than you might think. Our subscribers can enjoy our detailed work on this growth stock. |
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| Magic Markets: Private markets are a hive of activity |
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| | | Magic Markets: For companies seeking capital, founders wanting to exit their stake and investors who desire diversification and solid returns, private debt and equity markets offer a vibrant ecosystem. Dino Zuccollo of Westbrooke Alternative Asset Management joined us to discuss trends and strategies in this asset class, along with general levels of adoption by investors. Get the insights in this podcast>>> |
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| The dollar weakened broadly overnight, particularly against the Japanese yen amid expectations of monetary tightening in Japan. Weak US employment and manufacturing data pushed Treasury yields lower, supporting a more dovish Fed outlook, though some currency moves have begun reversing this morning.
US and European equity futures suggest a flat opening, while Asian markets are trading higher, with the Hang Seng leading gains on continued strength in the technology sector.
The rand has recovered most of its losses post the Budget Speech incident and is testing the R18.30/$ mark once again.
On balance, we are expecting a flat to marginally higher open on the JSE All-Share Index this morning.
Oil prices are steady after yesterday's rise, balancing higher US inventories against ceasefire uncertainties. Gold has edged lower but remains near record levels, supported by stalled peace talks, central bank purchases, and ongoing trade war concerns.
Key Indicators: USD/ZAR R18.35/$ | US 10yr 4.48% | Gold $2,930/oz | Platinum $972/oz | Brent Crude $75.95
As often as practically possible, insights from the IG Markets morning macro update by Shaun Murison will be featured here. Where this isn't possible, only indicators will be provided. If you want to learn more about trading, refer back to The Trader's Handbook, a podcast series that takes you through many of the important principles in trading. |
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