Dear Reader,

As you may know, I am a fan of Neil Howe and William Strauss’s book, The Fourth Turning.

Written in the 1990s, it has famously predicted cyclical events in the new millennium, including 9/11, the financial crisis, and the rise of political extremism.

We are in the “Crisis” turning right now, and things are not looking good.

In Europe, growing discontent with EU and immigration policies has led to the rise of populism in nearly every country.

Here in the United States, the 2016 election cycle practically split the country in half.

I fondly remember the days when you could have a heated political debate with your friends and then pat each other on the shoulder and go for a beer.

Those days seem to be over.

Recently, I have seen people cut ties with their closest friends and family members... all because they happen to support the other candidate.

Fears are running high on both sides. According to a 2018 Rasmussen poll, 37% of Democrats and 32% of Republicans said they think “it’s likely that the United States will experience a second civil war sometime in the next five years.”

I don’t believe that will happen. But it shows how the trust among Americans has eroded, and that can be dangerous.

There is no one I would rather hear from on this topic than my friend George Friedman, founder and chairman of Geopolitical Futures. George is a brilliant thinker and geopolitical expert who has advised the top brass in US government and industry.

When you want to know how the quarrel between the Sunni and Shi’a Muslims came about, you ask George. When you want to know why China and Taiwan are at odds, you ask George.

Please watch this clip from his amazing interview with moderator Jonathan Roth. You will be glad you did.

Tomorrow, we are on to the sin of Pride. Don’t miss it.

Your why can’t we all just get along analyst,

John Mauldin
Co-Founder