By Michael Shepherd - Oct. 7, 2022
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📷 Gov. Janet Mills and former Gov. Paul LePage participate in a Tuesday debate at the Franco Center in Lewiston. (AP photo by Robert F. Bukaty)

Good morning from Augusta. The Daily Brief will be off Monday, Oct. 10, for Indigenous Peoples' Day. It will return on Tuesday.

What we're watching today

The governor played it safe and her rival settled in after a rocky start in the first two of five debates. Recent research around presidential elections has found that most people decide who to vote for at least two months from Election Day, while perhaps 10 percent make voting decisions based on debates, a relatively small pool that can affect a close election.

You may not know many people who are undecided between Gov. Janet Mills and former Gov. Paul LePage. But this week's first two debates between the two were anticipated mostly for the theater of two longtime rivals finally going head to head. Independent Sam Hunkler, the third candidate on the ballot, made few waves in Tuesday's debate hosted by Maine Public and the Portland Press Herald and did not participate in a mostly economic one hosted by the Portland Regional Chamber of Commerce on Thursday.

That first debate was marked by LePage's labored exchange with moderators and Mills over abortion. At the end of it, LePage said he would veto a 15-week abortion ban, a remark that surprised both his anti-abortion allies and abortion-rights foes. He also stretched to run away from past stances, saying he has never "rejected" any election even though he called the 2020 election "stolen."

LePage allies — including Bangor Daily News columnist Michael Cianchette, who served as the former governor's top lawyer — have blamed moderators for a "gotcha" exchange on the topic. But behind the scenes, there are many Republicans who thought the former governor allowed himself to be backed into a corner on the sensitive topic.

His closing statement, when he asked Mainers if their financial situation now is better than it was four years ago, was viewed as being strong. He reused it at the Portland debate on the economy, where he was more in his element. LePage made headlines for saying Mills was "fortunate" that the COVID-19 pandemic hit due to billions in aid, but he was able to show contrast with the governor on key issues, including an aggressive tack on school consolidation.

Mills has mostly played a prevent defense in these early debates, trying to demonstrate deep knowledge of government while not engaging too much with LePage. At one point in the first debate, she said she would let the press "fact check" the former governor. She also talked often about topline accomplishments such as the $850 relief checks sent this year and meeting a statutory K-12 education threshold for the first time.

This set of tactics in the first debate led to her skirting a question on Republican attacks on lessons posted to a state website that drew a response ad from the governor's campaign this week. In the second debate, she was similarly on message about what she has done, though the moderator was able to get her to say one of her top forward-looking priorities was a larger focus on workforce issues including housing and education.

Mills has been ahead in recent polls, so it is no surprise to see the different strategies from her and LePage in the early going. Her safe approach will serve her well if the former governor swings wildly or looks unprepared on key issues. If he can stay focused on presenting contrasts while sticking to facts, she may have to get more aggressive in the last three debates, the first of which comes in just over two weeks.

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News and notes

📷 This combination of file photos shows former Rep. Bruce Poliquin of Maine's 2nd District in 2017, left, and Democratic Rep. Jared Golden in 2018, right. Independent Tiffany Bond is also running in the November election. (AP photos by Robert F. Bukaty)

💸 Outside spending is high but lower than many expected in Maine's swing congressional race.

◉ The race in Maine's 2nd District has drawn nearly $5.5 million in outside spending to date, according to tallies from the Center for Responsive Politics. It ranked 22nd on the list of House races by that measure, corresponding with its position on the national map as one of around 30 toss-up districts.

◉ That means spending is relatively high but far below what was expected by some coming in. An August analysis from AdImpact, a respected ad monitoring firm used by candidates across the spectrum projected $127 million in spending on ads alone in Maine's 2022 election. It is on track to be a huge overestimate.

◉ Outside spending has tilted against Rep. Jared Golden, the two-term Democratic incumbent, with nearly $3.2 million spent against him to almost $2.3 million against former Rep. Bruce Poliquin. Golden has led in public polls taken since the spring, but many on both sides expect the race to tighten.

❓Mills has not responded to the president's call for states to pardon marijuana offenses.

◉ President Joe Biden moved Thursday to pardon all Americans convicted on federal charges of simple marijuana possession. He also called on states to follow suit.

◉ Maine has long had liberal laws on marijuana, becoming the third state to decriminalize possession of small amounts for personal use in 1976. Voters here also backed medical marijuana in 1999, a dispensary system in 2010 and the adult-use system now in effect in a narrow 2016 referendum.

◉ That makes the legal environment here far different than it is in other parts of the country, but there are still plenty of Mainers who have civil violations on their records for possession and NORML counts 268 arrests here for possession and sales in 2020.

◉ Spokespeople for Mills did not respond to a Thursday request for comment on what she would consider here.

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What we're reading

🔍 Maine lawmakers are watching the trial of a mother accused of killing her 3-year-old son closely while eyeing another round of child welfare reforms.

🚜 The two construction executives killed in an Arundel plane crash this week were remembered as family men who loved their industry.

⛺ Housing affordability and homelessness are the dominant topics in Bangor City Council races this year.

💳 Maine's university system has paid $3 million to consultants since 2010 and are coming under scrutiny for their reliance on them for hiring.

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