🌊 Democrats' green wave

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By Michael Shepherd - April 13, 2022
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Good morning from Augusta. There is one week until the Maine Legislature is set to leave the State House for the year.

What we're watching today

Democrats have a huge advantage in 2022 legislative fundraising that could blunt Republican momentum. Maine looks set for competitive November elections from the heavyweight race between Gov. Janet Mills and former Gov. Paul LePage to the 2nd Congressional District and legislative races already getting buzz as some of the most hotly contested in the country. In a midterm year for President Joe Biden, the Maine Republican Party outraised its Democratic counterpart through March.
That edge is due in large part to a big money drop from the Republican Governors Association, which is trying to ensure LePage can fully capitalize on environmental factors and oust an incumbent Maine governor for the first time since 1966. As history shows, doing that is going to be hard. LePage needs his party to wrest legislative control from Democrats to be effective if he wins.
Every two years, legislative Democrats blow Republicans away in fundraising because of a wider donor pool and better national party infrastructure. Despite their minority status in Augusta, Republicans often make up for some of this by recruiting good candidates and allocating resources well. But the gap between the parties is even bigger in early 2022.
Taken together, the Senate and House Democratic campaign arms — at more than $1.2 million — had nearly 10 times more money at the end of March than their Republican counterparts. In 2020, Democrats had nearly three times more money at this time en route to a mixed election in which House Republicans gained 11 seats and Senate Democrats ousted the Republican leader.
This year's Democratic advantage is partially due to big surplus contributions from the 2020 campaign of Sara Gideon, who lost to U.S. Sen. Susan Collins. They have already tossed around huge sums this year, spending more in a January special House election in the Gorham area than in any 2020 House race. A June special Senate election between former Sen. Brian Langley, R-Ellsworth, and Rep. Nicole Grohoski will give them another opportunity to flex their money advantage in a swing district that should provide a close race.
Past outcomes show money is not everything. Maine Republicans can outperform in 2022 if the electoral environment is right or if they prove to have quality candidates who can fight back against Democratic advantages. But doing all of that in the face of a money gap this big is going to get harder district by district as we close in on the fall. It should be a big warning sign.

What we're reading

— Sen. Angus King could again be a key figure in determining whether Biden's pick to lead the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives will be confirmed. Steve Dettelbach, a former U.S. attorney and Ohio attorney general candidate, has run into early resistance from the National Rifle Association for backing gun control measures.
— Only 1 in 10 Mainers are complying with new federal Real ID requirements. A rude awakening could come after May 3, 2023, when the federal government stops allowing non-conforming identification to board domestic flights.
— In a major step forward for state-tribal relations, a supermajority of the Maine House of Representatives on Tuesday backed a measure that would give the Passamaquoddy Tribe at Sipayik control over its water supply. The bill has been viewed skeptically by Mills, but the House margin was big enough to withstand a potential veto if lawmakers stand firm.
— A pair of Maine lawmakers are putting forward a last-minute fix to a pull-tab gaming rule change that led veterans' clubs to fear for their futures. Sen. Brad Farrin, R-Norridgewock, said he is working with Sen. Craig Hickman, D-Winthrop, the chair of the gaming panel, to overturn the new rules.

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News and notes

— The first divided votes on Gov. Janet Mills' $1.2 billion spending proposal came Tuesday in the Legislature's budget committee when two Republicans, Reps. Amy Arata of New Gloucester and Patrick Corey of Windham, dissented on several votes to establish new state government positions. The governor asked for more than 200 new positions and the committee approved roughly 160. The harder votes indicate it is crunch time on finishing the budget.
— Votes came quickly on the chamber floors on Tuesday. Among the notable items were the unanimous Senate confirmation of Rick Lawrence, who will be the first Black justice on Maine's high court and the Legislature sending two bills to Mills' desk: a ban on out-of-state waste at a state-owned landfill and a dispute resolution board for loggers proposed by Senate President Troy Jackson, D-Allagash, that the Mills administration has opposed.

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Follow along today

10 a.m. The House and Senate are in again. Schedules are getting uncertain with long-held items likely to come up. Bills up for potential House votes include a Democratic one that would turn the Fund for a Healthy Maine into a trust, ensuring funds are used for anti-tobacco and health initiatives. Watch here.
The Senate could vote on a House-approved measure that would send $11 million or more per year to the Department of Corrections to expand services for children in state prisons. Watch here.
10:30 a.m. House Speaker Ryan Fecteau, D-Biddeford, headlines a rally and news conference in Augusta's Capitol Park organized by progressive groups calling on Maine's congressional delegation to pass child care, climate and prescription drug legislation.
3 p.m. The Legislature's government oversight committee meets to discuss its investigative arm's recent report on the child welfare system. Watch here.
The budget committee continues work on Mills' spending proposal. Watch here.

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📷 Lead photo: Members of the Maine House of Representatives look up as a vote is tallied on Wednesday, June 30, 2021, at the State House in Augusta. (AP photo by Robert F. Bukaty)

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