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Thursday, September 5, 2024 |
You're never going to believe this. I am all-in on Nico Collins, De'Von Achane, and Jayden Daniels on what looks like an extremely fun Week 1 NFL DFS slate. You're shocked, aren't you? |
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The DFS Helper should help point you in the right direction, but feel free to reach out to me on Twitter if you have any further questions! I try to respond to tweets throughout the week; I also have a weekly Twitter Q&A each Sunday morning to answer any lineup setting questions you have. Good luck this weekend everybody! |
DraftKings Main Slate Tiers |
Quarterback |
Tier 1 -- Cash Game Considerations Jayden Daniels ($5,700), Josh Allen ($8,000) |
Tier 2 -- Preferred Tournament Options Jayden Daniels ($5,700), C.J. Stroud ($7,500), Kyler Murray ($6,400), Josh Allen ($8,000), Daniel Jones ($5,400 - only in a stack with Malik Nabers), Trevor Lawrence ($6,200 - only in a stack), Tua Tagovailoa ($7,000 - only in a stack) |
Running Back |
Tier 1 -- Cash Game Locks None |
Tier 2 -- Cash Game Consideration De'Von Achane ($6,800), Jaleel McLaughlin ($4,300), Rachaad White ($6,300), Travis Etienne ($7,200), Bijan Robinson ($7,700) |
Tier 3 -- Preferred Tournament Options De'Von Achane ($6,800), Raheem Mostert ($6,400), Kenneth Walker ($6,100), James Conner ($6,200), Jaleel McLaughlin ($4,300), Rachaad White ($6,300), Javonte Williams ($5,500), J.K. Dobbins ($4,900), Jonathan Taylor ($7,800) |
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Wide Receiver |
Tier 1 -- Cash Game Locks Nico Collins ($7,000), Malik Nabers ($5,900) |
Tier 2 -- Cash Game Consideration Diontae Johnson ($5,300), Jayden Waddle ($6,300), Tyreek Hill ($8,700), Chris Olave ($6,600), Jaxon Smith-Njigba ($4,900), Mike Evans ($7,300), Jalen McMillan ($3,300) |
Tier 3 -- Preferred Tournament Options Nico Collins ($7,000), Brian Thomas Jr. ($4,700), Jayden Waddle ($6,300), Malik Nabers ($5,900), Tank Dell ($5,500), Joshua Palmer ($5,200), Jaxon Smith-Njigba ($4,900), Rashid Shaheed ($4,400), Tyreek Hill ($8,700), Jalen McMillan ($3,300), Adonai Mitchell ($3,800), Mike Evans ($7,300), Curtis Samuel ($4,900), Keon Coleman ($5,000) |
Tight End |
Tier 1 -- Cash Game Consideration Trey McBride ($6,100), Zach Ertz ($3,600), Kylen Granson ($2,900) |
Tier 2 -- Preferred Tournament Options Trey McBride ($6,100) , Dalton Kincaid ($5,800) |
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FanDuel Main Slate Tiers |
Quarterback |
Tier 1 -- Cash Game Considerations Jayden Daniels ($7,000), Josh Allen ($9,200) |
Tier 2 -- Preferred Tournament Options Jayden Daniels ($7,000), C.J. Stroud ($8,500), Matthew Stafford ($7,300), Jared Goff ($7,500), Josh Allen ($9,200), Kyler Murray ($7,900), Tua Tagovailoa ($7,700), Trevor Lawrence ($7,400), Daniel Jones ($6,800) |
Running Back |
Tier 1 -- Cash Game Locks De'Von Achane ($7,200) |
Tier 2 -- Cash Game Consideration James Conner ($6,100), Jahmyr Gibbs ($8,000), Travis Etienne ($7,500), Raheem Mostert ($6,600) |
Tier 3 -- Preferred Tournament Options De'Von Achane ($7,200), Bijan Robinson ($8,800), Jonathan Taylor ($8,600), Raheem Mostert ($6,600), Kyren Williams ($7,800), James Conner ($6,100), Jahmyr Gibbs ($8,000), Chase Brown ($5,400), Jaleel McLaughlin ($5,000), J.K. Dobbins ($5,500) |
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Wide Receiver |
Tier 1 -- Cash Game Locks Nico Collins ($7,100) |
Tier 2 -- Cash Game Consideration Diontae Johnson ($5,600), Malik Nabers ($6,300), Jaylen Waddle ($7,200), Tyreek Hill ($9,600), Amon-Ra St. Brown ($8,900), Chris Olave ($7,000), Jaxon Smith-Njigba ($5,200) |
Tier 3 -- Preferred Tournament Options Nico Collins ($7,100), Brian Thomas Jr. ($5,100), Courtland Sutton ($5,500), Jaylen Waddle ($7,200), Tyreek Hill ($9,600), Diontae Johnson ($5,600), Chris Olave ($7,000), Marvin Harrison Jr. ($6,600), Puka Nacua ($8,400), Malik Nabers ($6,300), Tank Dell ($6,400), Jaxon Smith-Njigba ($5,200), Rashid Shaheed ($5,200), Curtis Samuel ($5,200), Jalen McMillan ($5,000), Keon Coleman ($6,000) |
Tight End |
Tight End |
Tier 1 -- Cash Game Consideration Trey McBride ($6,400), Colby Parkinson ($4,700) |
Tier 2 -- Preferred Tournament Options Trey McBride ($6,400), Sam LaPorta ($8,000), Dalton Kincaid ($6,800), Colby Parkinson ($4,700) |
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Optimal FanDuel Lineup |
*Be sure to check back for updates.* |
QB -- Jayden Daniels RB -- De'Von Achane RB -- Raheem Mostert WR -- Nico Collins WR -- Malik Nabers WR -- Diontae Johnson TE -- Trey McBride FLEX -- Amon-Ra St. Brown D/ST -- Bengals |
Tournament FanDuel Lineup |
Designed for large-field tournaments |
QB -- C.J. Stroud RB -- Jonathan Taylor RB -- De'Von Achane WR -- Brian Thomas Jr. WR -- Nico Collins WR -- Tank Dell TE -- Colby Parkinson FLEX -- Jahmyr Gibbs D/ST -- Seahawks |
Week 1 Rankings Update |
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Quarterbacks |
Tier 1 -- Locked-in |
QB1 - Josh Allen QB2 - Jalen Hurts QB3 - Patrick Mahomes QB4 - Lamar Jackson QB5 - C.J. Stroud |
I love the matchup for Stroud against Indianapolis, but I am a bit worried about Anthony Richardson and the Colts offense. Houston's edge combination of Will Anderson and Danielle Hunter may be the most overwhelming pass rush duo in 2024. Indy's line is strong, but this will be a tough Week 1 test. |
Tier 2 -- Upside to finish as the top scorer in Fantasy, but there's risk |
QB6 - Anthony Richardson QB7 - Jayden Daniels QB8 - Kyler Murray |
Murray doesn't feel as risky as the other two, but Arizona's implied team total (21 points) for Week 1 is sandwiched right in between Indy (23.25) and Washington (20.25). I feel pretty optimistic about Arizona's offense in this spot, but the Vegas total caught my eye. |
Tier 3 -- Betting on touchdowns with pocket passers |
QB9 - Jared Goff QB10 - Tua Tagovailoa QB11 - Matthew Stafford QB12 - Jordan Love QB13 - Joe Burrow QB14 - Trevor Lawrence QB15 - Caleb Williams QB16 - Geno Smith QB17 - Brock Purdy QB18 - Dak Prescott QB19 - Baker Mayfield QB20 - Justin Herbert QB21 - Kirk Cousins |
Burrow and Prescott feel ridiculously low, but I don't feel great about the vibes around either team entering Week 1. Dallas has had its implied team total bet down below 20 points in anticipation of a road matchup against the Browns defense, and we still have no idea of what is going to happen with Ja'Marr Chase in Cincinnati. The Bengals draw a Patriots defense that has been stingy, and bettors are hitting the under in that game. I'm expecting a lot of Chase Brown on the ground for Cincinnati. |
Don't let me talk you out of Jordan Love this week. I'm just a little hesitant to attack a Philadelphia defense that I expect to be much improved in 2024. The Packers have a good but not great implied point total (23.5), which is lower than the Lions, Dolphins, Rams, Bears, and Seahawks. |
Tier 4 -- Fine to start if needed, I would not want to use these players |
QB22 - Daniel Jones QB23 - Deshaun Watson QB24 - Aaron Rodgers QB25 - Sam Darnold QB26 - Will Levis QB27 - Derek Carr QB28 - Russell Wilson QB29 - Bryce Young QB30 - Bo Nix QB31 - Gardner Minshew QB32 - Jacoby Brissett |
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Running Backs |
Tier 1 -- Locked-in |
RB1 - Christian McCaffrey RB2 - Breece Hall RB3 - Bijan Robinson RB4 - Jonathan Taylor RB5 - Jahmyr Gibbs RB6 - De'Von Achane RB7 - Saquon Barkley RB8 - Kyren Williams RB9 - Travis Etienne RB10 - Raheem Mostert |
Maybe Mostert does not belong in this tier. He did the last time that we saw him healthy. I like this matchup for Miami's ground game, and the Dolphins (26.5-point implied point total) are just 0.75 points short of the highest Week 1 total (Detroit - 27.5). |
Tier 2 -- Looking like Week 1 workhorses |
RB11 - Joe Mixon RB12 - Derrick Henry RB13 - Kenneth Walker RB14 - James Conner RB15 - Josh Jacobs |
Walker is the player who I am the least convinced belongs in this workhorse tier, but his matchup offsets it. We could see him rip off multiple explosive runs in Week 1. |
Tier 3 -- These guys are great, their offense may score a buncha points, I do not have any idea what the backfield split will look like. |
RB16 - James Cook RB17 - Rachaad White RB18 - Isiah Pacheco RB21 - David Montgomery |
I have the least confidence in Cook's role, but the Bills have a much better projected Week 1 offensive environment than Kansas City or Tampa. |
Tier 4 -- Role and matchup both check out, but can we trust the offensive environment? |
RB19 - Alvin Kamara RB20 - Aaron Jones RB22 - Najee Harris RB23 - Javonte Williams RB25 - Devin Singletary RB29 - Rhamondre Stevenson |
Tier 5 -- I have several concerns |
RB24 - D'Andre Swift (offensive environment/role - I think Khalil Herbert is going to play on early downs) RB26 - Tony Pollard (matchup/offensive environment/role) RB27 - Chase Brown (matchup/role) RB28 - Jerome Ford (matchup/offensive environment) RB30 - Brian Robinson Jr. (offensive environment/role) RB34 - Chuba Hubbard (offensive environment/role - surely we're done with Miles Sanders, right?) RB36 - Tyjae Spears (matchup/offensive environment/role) RB37 - Zamir White (offensive environment/role) |
Tier 6 -- I also like to live dangerously |
RB31 - Jaleel McLaughlin RB32 - J.K. Dobbins RB33 - Gus Edwards RB35 - Zack Moss (purely a bet on touchdowns) RB40 - Ray Davis |
Tier 7 -- Desperation plays |
RB38 - Austin Ekeler RB39 - Ezekiel Elliott RB41 - Jaylen Warren RB42 - Blake Corum RB43 - Zach Charbonnet RB44 - Khalil Herbert RB45 - Bucky Irving RB46 - Rico Dowdle RB47 - Tyler Allgeier RB48 - Antonio Gibson RB49 - Ty Chandler RB50 - Justice Hill |
Wide Receivers |
Tier 1 -- Locked-in |
WR1 - Tyreek Hill WR2 - Amon-Ra St. Brown WR3 - CeeDee Lamb WR4 - Justin Jefferson WR5 - Nico Collins WR6 - A.J. Brown WR7 - Garrett Wilson WR8 - Deebo Samuel WR9 - Mike Evans WR10 - Puka Nacua WR11 - Jaylen Waddle WR12 - Davante Adams WR13 - Rashee Rice |
Tier 2 -- Slightly more risk, but probably gonna deliver a big Week 1 score |
WR14 - Ja'Marr Chase WR15 - Chris Olave WR16 - Cooper Kupp WR17 - Marvin Harrison Jr. WR18 - DJ Moore WR19 - Malik Nabers WR20 - Drake London WR21 - DeVonta Smith WR25 - Stefon Diggs WR29 - Tank Dell |
Tier 3 -- Offensive environment or matchup concerns keeping them out of Tier 2 |
WR22 - Diontae Johnson WR23 - Michael Pittman WR24 - DK Metcalf WR26 - Terry McLaurin WR27 - Amari Cooper WR28 - George Pickens WR30 - Tee Higgins WR32 - Brandon Aiyuk WR34 - Calvin Ridley WR35 - Courtland Sutton |
Tier 4 -- Super solid Week 1 projections (even if there's not quite as much blow-up game potential) |
WR31 - Chris Godwin WR33 - Christian Kirk WR34 - Joshua Palmer WR46 - Jayden Reed WR47 - Khalil Shakir WR48 - Romeo Doubs |
Tier 5 -- I have no idea what to expect from this group, but it could be fun! |
WR37 - Xavier Worthy WR38 - Zay Flowers WR39 - Keenan Allen WR40 - Brian Thomas Jr. WR41 - Jaxon Smith-Njigba WR42 - Curtis Samuel WR43 - Keon Coleman WR44 - Christian Watson WR45 - Rashid Shaheed WR48 - Rome Odunze WR52 - Adonai Mitchell WR61 - Ladd McConkey WR65 - Marvin Mims WR73 - Luke McCaffrey |
Tier 6 -- Desperation plays |
WR50 - DeAndre Hopkins WR51 - Jameson Williams WR53 - Adam Thielen WR54 - Tyler Lockett WR55 - Darnell Mooney WR56 - Jakobi Meyers WR57 - Demarcus Robinson WR58 - Gabe Davis WR59 - Jalen McMillan WR60 - Jordan Addison WR62 - Brandin Cooks WR63 - Demario Douglas WR64 - Michael Wilson WR66 - Jerry Jeudy WR67 - Rashod Bateman WR68 - Darius Slayton WR69 - Ja'Lynn Polk WR70 - Tyler Boyd WR71 - Greg Dortch WR72 - Wan'Dale Robinson WR74 - Andrei Iosivas WR75 - Josh Reynolds |
Tight Ends |
Tier 1 -- Locked-in |
TE1 - Sam LaPorta TE2 - Trey McBride TE3 - Travis Kelce TE4 - Mark Andrews TE5 - Dalton Kincaid TE6 - Evan Engram |
Week 1 with a massive implied point total vs. a susceptible Arizona defense sure feels like a coming-out party for Buffalo's new pass-game centerpiece, Dalton Kincaid. |
Tier 2 -- Don't love the matchup/game set-up |
TE7 - Kyle Pitts TE8 - George Kittle TE9 - David Njoku TE10 - Jake Ferguson |
Tier 3 -- Wild cards! |
TE11 - Taysom Hill TE12 - Brock Bowers |
Tier 4 -- These guys are probably going to play a ton. I'm not sure what they'll do with their opportunities, but you can feel some level of confidence placing cheap bets on them in Week 1 |
TE13 - Colby Parkinson TE14 - Dallas Goedert TE15 - Tyler Conklin TE16 - Luke Musgrave TE17 - Zach Ertz TE18 - Noah Fant (revenge game, please give us a big Noah Fant game!) TE19 - Dalton Schultz TE24 - Cade Otton TE28 - Kylen Granson TE29 - Dawson Knox |
Tier 5 -- Playing time feels less clear |
TE20 - Hunter Henry (health?) TE21 - Pat Freiermuth TE22 - Juwan Johnson TE23 - Cole Kmet TE25 - Jonnu Smith TE26 - Chigoziem Okonkwo TE27 - Tucker Kraft TE30 - Gerald Everett TE31 - Michael Mayer TE32 - Isaiah Likely TE33 - Greg Dulcich TE34 - Ja'Tavion Sanders TE35 - Hayden Hurst TE36 - Theo Johnson TE37 - Mike Gesicki TE38 - Will Dissly TE39 - Johnny Mundt TE40 - Mo Alie-Cox |
I'll be in your inbox every weekday and every Sunday morning for the foreseeable future! NFL is back, baby! I am so grateful and excited to be able to deliver this newsletter to you as we navigate the 2024 season together. Thank you! This is going to be fun! |
If you have any feedback on the newsletter, feel free to send them my way. Thank you for reading! And please, do check out Beyond the Boxscore on FFT! Dan and I put a lot of work into that podcast project and aim to make it fun and accessible for any level of NFL fan! |
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