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April 01, 2016

Dismal Scientist Daily Update

Highlights from Moody's Analytics forward looking, up-to-the-minute coverage of the global economy.


» Today's Commentary
» Insight on Critical Issues
» Today's Releases
» Survey of Business Confidence
» Reader's Choice

Today's Commentary

Mother Nature and U.S. Employment
Warmer weather has likely added 40,000 jobs per month on average since November.

Asia Spotlight: India to Cut Rates Cautiously
RBI will likely cut rates by 25 basis points in April as domestic growth momentum remains uneven.

Canada Weekly: A Tale of Two Industries
Cheap oil prices have resulted in a reversal of fortune among goods producers.

LatAm Weekly: Betting on Change
Excitement over Brazil's impeachment proceedings is overshadowing economic weakness.

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Insight on Critical Issues

LatAm External Gap Quickly Narrowing
Flexible foreign exchange systems have allowed rebalancing.

Macro Roundup: Japan’s Dismal Tankan Increases Stimulus Odds
The lowest business sentiment in three years is set to push fiscal and monetary policy levers.

Asia-Pacific Economic Preview: 4-10 April
Australian consumer activity is set to improve, while pessimism mounts in Japan.

Europe Economic Preview: 4-8 April
Euro zone economies appear to have turned a corner, though risks continue.

View More Analysis


Today's Releases

FlagBrazilIndustrial Production
February-13.2%
The national industry is experiencing significant contractions as the economy is under policy adjustments ...
 
FlagBrazilForeign Trade
MarchUS$4.43 bil
Brazil registered a significant trade surplus in March as the country’s weak economy continues to weigh ...
 
FlagGermanyLending by Banks
February1.6%
German bank lending to private enterprises rose year on year in February for the third consecutive month. ...
 
FlagItalyEmployment Situation
February11.7%
Italy’s unemployment rate rose to 11.7% in February from 11.6% in January because of the slowing economy. ...
 
FlagNorth AmericaECRI Future Inflation Gauge
March107.8 (U.S.)
The ECRI Future Inflation Gauge increased again in March, in line with other measures of core prices. ...
 
FlagPeruConsumer Price Index
March4.3%
Consumer price inflation in the Lima metropolitan area continued to ease in March. Inflation rose 0.6% ...
 
FlagRussian FederationReserve Fund
AprilRUB3.42 tril
Russia's reserve fund stood at RUB3.42 trillion as of the beginning of April, lower than in the previous ...
 
FlagSpainBusiness Confidence
March-2
Spain’s business confidence index remained unchanged at -2 in March, in line with our expectations. While ...
 
FlagUnited KingdomMoody's Analytics Debt Service Ratio
2015Q412.8%
The Moody’s Analytics debt service ratio for the U.K. held steady, in line with Moody’s Analytics forecasts, ...
 
FlagUnited KingdomNationwide Housing Price Index
March5.7%
The U.K. Nationwide Housing Price Index increased 0.8% m/m in March, up from 0.4% in the previous month. ...
 
FlagUnited StatesECRI Weekly Leading Index
03/25/2016133.0
The ECRI Weekly Leading Index built off of a nine-month high in the week ended March 25, continuing its ...
 
FlagUnited StatesEmployment Situation
March215,000
The labor market continues to improve at a steady pace. Payrolls increased by 215,000 in March, slightly ...
 
FlagUnited StatesISM Manufacturing Index
March51.8
Manufacturing is showing signs of emerging from its recent funk. The ISM manufacturing index increased ...
 
FlagUnited StatesVehicle Sales - AutoData
March16.6 mil, SAAR
Vehicle sales were disappointing in March. The pace fell to 16.6 million on a seasonally adjusted annualized ...
 
FlagUnited StatesConstruction Spending (C30)
February-0.5%
Construction spending in February came in below the consensus expectation. The value put in place decreased ...
 
FlagUnited StatesUniversity of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey
March91.0
Consumer sentiment dipped slightly in March, according to the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment ...
 
FlagUnited StatesMoody's CMBS Delinquency Tracker
February4.75%
The Moody’s CMBS Delinquency Tracker fell from 4.76% (before revisions) in January to 4.75% in February ...
 
View More Releases


Survey of Business Confidence

Latest: 30.7

The wild swings in global financial markets have buffeted business confidence. Sentiment fell with the markets through early this year but, like the markets, has firmed in recent weeks. Recent responses to all of the survey questions have taken on a brighter hue. And despite the decline in confidence in recent months, in a broader historical context, business sentiment is good and consistent with an economy that is expanding at the high end of its potential.

View Full Analysis


Reader's Choice

U.S. Consumer Outlook: Supports for Spending Shift
Real spending growth will reaccelerate, but supports will be different from last year.

The Oil Rebalancing Act
U.S. oil production holds the key for oil prices.

U.S. Chartbook: Profit Pain
The fourth quarter wasn't kind to corporate profits but the economic costs should be small, for now.

A More Promising Road to GSE Reform
Reforming Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac is critical.

U.S. Credit Outlook: A Cautionary Tale
Both lenders and consumers have been wary to extend and demand credit.



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UPCOMING EVENTS
Moody's Analytics Economic & Consumer Credit Briefing - San Francisco CA
April 05, 2016


Moody's Analytics Economic & Consumer Credit Briefing - Orange County CA
April 06, 2016


Moody's Analytics Economic & Consumer Credit Briefing - Los Angeles CA
April 07, 2016


Moody's Analytics Economic & Consumer Credit Briefing - Dallas TX
April 11, 2016


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