Today's Commentary Economic Roundup: European Central Bank Gets Aggressive and Creative Actions will help the economy but only modestly; the ECB can't do it alone. How Long Can Brazil Stay on Top? Mexico may not reach Brazil's economic stature for three decades. U.S. Services Survey Nudges Q4 GDP Lower We have cut our tracking estimate from 1.1% to 1% at an annual rate. The Soothing Effect of U.S. Initial Jobless Claims Claims will have to make a sustained break above 300,000 to signal significantly weaker job growth. View More Analysis Insight on Critical Issues Asia-Pacific Economic Preview: 14-18 March Data will show that risks to the Asia-Pacific outlook remain downwardly skewed. Europe Economic Preview: 14-18 March Greece is under pressure from the migration crisis and its international creditors. U.S. Macro Outlook: Myth Busting The electorate seems unconvinced, but solid fundamentals are driving the economy. Brave New World of Negative Interest Rates, Part 2 Negative policy rates and quantitative easing, taken together, pack a punch. View More Analysis Today's Releases Brazil | Retail Sales Index | January | -10.3% | Retail sales continued to contract in Brazil at the beginning of the year as the economy remained in ... | | Canada | New Housing Price Index | January | 1.8% | Ontario and British Columbia continue to lead Canadian house prices higher. Canada's New House Price ... | | Canada | Industrial Capacity Utilization | 2015Q4 | 81.1% | Canadian industries decreased their production capacity by 0.5 percentage point in the fourth quarter ... | | Colombia | GDP | 2015Q4 | 3.3% | Colombia's economy expanded at a slightly faster pace in the final quarter of 2015 led by manufacturing, ... | | Euro Zone | Monetary Policy | March | 0.0% | The European Central Bank cut all three main monetary policy rates while announcing further monetary ... | | France | Nonfarm Payrolls | 2015Q4 | 15.9 mil | According to the final number, nonfarm payrolls in France increased 0.2% to 15.9 million in the three ... | | France | Industrial Production | January | 1.3% | Industrial production in France increased 1.3% m/m seasonally adjusted in January, following a 0.6% decrease ... | | Germany | Foreign Trade | January | â¬18.9 bil | Germany's trade surplus narrowed to â¬18.9 billion in January from a revised â¬20.3 billion in the previous ... | | Spain | Retail Sales | January | 2% | Spain's retail trade, not seasonally adjusted, expanded 2% y/y in January, down from a revised 3.2% increase ... | | United States | Financial Accounts - Households | 2015Q4 | $86.8 tril | Household wealth jumped in the fourth quarter, but, coming off a decline, it is still growing only slowly, ... | | United States | Financial Accounts - Nonfinancial Corporate | 2015Q4 | $22.80 tril | Nonfinancial corporate business balance sheets have improved substantially since the Great Recession. ... | | United States | St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index | 03/04/2016 | -0.609 | Financial market conditions eased last week as oil and equity markets rebounded. The St. Louis Fed Financial ... | | United States | Treasury Budget | February | -$192.6 bil | The federal budget deficit is trending lower this fiscal year compared with the last one, but policymakers ... | | United States | Natural Gas Storage Report | 03/04/2016 | -57 bil cubic feet | Despite the beginning of spring weather and rising inventories in many regions, overall inventories fell, ... | | United States | Jobless Claims | 03/05/2016 | 259,000 | The U.S. job market has not been significantly affected by the tightening in financial market conditions ... | | View More Releases Survey of Business Confidence Latest: 29.2 The slide in global business confidence that began during the summer seems to be over. Sentiment still appears fragile, but survey responses are no longer eroding. The weakest response is to businessesâ assessments of present conditions; there are roughly as many respondents saying conditions are improving as saying they are weakening. Expectations regarding the outlook this summer remain stronger. And despite the decline in confidence in recent months, in a broader historical context, business sentiment is good, and consistent with an economy that is expanding at the high end of its potential. View Full Analysis Reader's Choice Global Outlook: Calling All Hands Collective action is needed to protect the recovery. U.S. Chartbook: Shifting Mix Between Growth and Inflation Fed should punt in March but may not be able to delay too long. Candidate Report Card: The Republicans Tax proposals are transparent, simple and expensive. Fed Should Allow Inflation to Overshoot the 2% Target The anticipated acceleration in inflation appears under way, but the Fed should remain patient. Economic Roundup: Boom Goes the U.S. Labor Market Job growth exceeds expectations and slack is quickly vanishing.
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