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March 16, 2016

Dismal Scientist Daily Update

Highlights from Moody's Analytics forward looking, up-to-the-minute coverage of the global economy.


» Today's Commentary
» Insight on Critical Issues
» Today's Releases
» Survey of Business Confidence
» Reader's Choice

Today's Commentary

U.S. Oil Producers Line Up Their DUCs
New supply can come to market faster than ever.

Fed Maps a New Path Forward
The central bank could be setting itself up for a policy error.

First Quarter U.S. GDP Coming In Close to Expectations
Q1 growth is now tracking 1.9% at an annual rate.

U.K. Budget Lowers Growth Forecasts
The government remains committed to a budget surplus by fiscal 2019-2020.

View More Analysis


Insight on Critical Issues

Candidate Report Card: The Democrats
Higher taxes, higher complexity, lower inequality.

U.S. Regional Outlook: The Expansion Continues
The outlook is upbeat, for most of the country.

U.S. Chartbook: Resilience is Tested
The expansion is still in mid-cycle, but recent financial market tightness has tempered sentiment.

Commodity Outlook: Oil Prices Heading Higher
The dollar is losing ground, economic fears are subsiding, and U.S. production is easing.

View More Analysis


Today's Releases

FlagCanadaInternational Transactions in Securities
JanuaryC$ 13.5 bil
Foreign interest in Canadian securities remains strong. Foreign investors increased their holdings of ...
 
FlagCanadaSurvey of Manufacturing
January2.3%
Manufacturing sales rose 2.3% in January to a new high of $53.1 billion, driven up by strong sales of ...
 
FlagUnited KingdomEmployment Situation
February5.1%
The U.K. headline ILO-harmonized unemployment rate for the three months to January held steady at 5.1%, ...
 
FlagUnited StatesOil Inventories
03/11/2016523.2 mil barrels
A build in crude oil inventories well below expectations will add momentum to rising prices. Crude oil ...
 
FlagUnited StatesFOMC Monetary Policy
March0.25 - 0.50 %
The Federal Reserve sat tight in March, which is prudent risk management given the tightening in financial ...
 
FlagUnited StatesIndustrial Production
February-0.5%
Industrial production slipped 0.5% in February, a weaker showing than both our forecast and the consensus. ...
 
FlagUnited StatesMBA Mortgage Applications Survey
03/11/2016-3.3%
Mortgage applications decreased last week; activity cooled as interest rates rose. The composite index ...
 
FlagUnited StatesNew Residential Construction (C20)
February1.178 mil
Residential construction had a nice start in February and came in above expectations. Total housing starts ...
 
FlagUnited StatesConsumer Price Index
February-0.2%
U.S. core inflation has made a convincing turn and it suggests that the Federal Reserve won’t delay its ...
 
View More Releases


Survey of Business Confidence

Latest: 30.9

Business sentiment has firmed in recent weeks in tandem with the rally in global financial markets. The turmoil in markets late last year and early this year had noticeably weakened confidence, hitting assessments of present conditions especially hard. But recent responses to all of the survey questions have taken on a brighter hue. Expectations regarding the outlook into this summer remain notably strong, with over half of respondents saying conditions will improve by then. And despite the decline in confidence in recent months, in a broader historical context, business sentiment is good and consistent with an economy that is expanding at the high end of its potential.

View Full Analysis


Reader's Choice

Global Outlook: Calling All Hands
Collective action is needed to protect the recovery.

U.S. Macro Outlook: Myth Busting
The electorate seems unconvinced, but solid fundamentals are driving the economy.

U.S. Chartbook: Silencing the Critics
Job growth and vehicle sales in February should allay concerns about the economy.

U.S. Regional Outlook: The Expansion Continues
The outlook is upbeat, for most of the country.

Forecasters' Mailbag: Inflation, 'Bartender Recovery,' Oil Inventories
Have a question on the economy? Send it along.



About Moody's Analytics

Moody's Analytics, a subsidiary of Moody's Corporation, helps capital markets and credit risk management professionals worldwide respond to an evolving marketplace with confidence. Through its team of economists, Moody’s Analytics is a leading independent provider of research, credit risk management, modeling, data, and forecasts at the global, national and subnational levels.

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UPCOMING EVENTS
EBA Scenarios for the 2016 EU-wide Stress Test
March 23, 2016


Moody's Analytics Economic Briefing - Stamford CT
March 24, 2016


Moody's Analytics Economic & Consumer Credit Briefing - San Francisco CA
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April 06, 2016


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