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March 17, 2016

Dismal Scientist Daily Update

Highlights from Moody's Analytics forward looking, up-to-the-minute coverage of the global economy.


» Today's Commentary
» Insight on Critical Issues
» Today's Releases
» Survey of Business Confidence
» Reader's Choice

Today's Commentary

Economic Roundup: Uncertainty Hounds Central Bankers
Central bankers in the U.K., Switzerland and Norway all face their own set of risks.

Venezuela Faces Severe Energy Crisis
Power generation is hindered by drought and lack of investment.

BoE Keeps the U.K. Policy Rate Unchanged
Economic activity remains robust, but there are signals of weakness in domestic demand.

Economic Briefing: Fed’s Statement Boosts Asian Currencies
The slew of disappointing data continued for Japan.

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Insight on Critical Issues

Asia-Pacific Economic Preview: 21-25 March
Japanese inflation remains elusive.

Europe Economic Preview: 21-25 March
Public finance figures will likely show that the British government missed its deficit target.

U.S. Workforce Expands
Revised data show job growth, though slowing, was stronger than previously reported.

Indonesia Outlook: Time to Deliver
Stimulus begins to address the below-potential GDP growth.

View More Analysis


Today's Releases

FlagArgentinaRetail Sales Index
January27.2%
The index that tracks nominal sales at Buenos Aires’ largest shopping centers increased 27.2% y/y in ...
 
FlagCanadaWholesale Trade
January0%
Wholesale trade stalled in January, but the trend remains positive. Wholesale sales were unchanged at ...
 
FlagEuro ZoneConsumer Price Index
February-0.2%
The euro zone consumer price index fell 0.2% y/y in February, following a 0.3% increase a month earlier, ...
 
FlagEuro ZoneExternal Trade
January€6.2 bil
The euro zone’s external trade surplus narrowed in January to €6.2 billion, not seasonally adjusted, ...
 
FlagIndonesiaMonetary Policy
March6.75%
Bank Indonesia made it a hat trick of rate cuts at its March monetary policy meeting. The policy rate ...
 
FlagItalyForeign Trade
January€0.0 billion
Italy’s merchandise trade surplus narrowed to €35 million in January from €6 billion a month earlier ...
 
FlagRussiaIndustrial Production
February1.0%
February's reading of Russia's industrial output surprised with a 1% annual increase, closing almost ...
 
FlagUnited KingdomMonetary Policy and Minutes
March0.5%
The Bank of England kept its main repurchase rate at 0.5% and its target for asset purchases at £375 ...
 
FlagUnited StatesSt. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index
03/11/2016-0.651
Financial market conditions eased last week as oil and equity markets rebounded. The St. Louis Fed Financial ...
 
FlagUnited StatesJob Openings and Labor Turnover Survey
January3.7% openings rate
The January Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey reflects the temporary weakness in job gains following ...
 
FlagUnited StatesConference Board Leading Indicators
February0.1%
A slow expansion should continue over the coming months. The Conference Board index of leading indicators ...
 
FlagUnited StatesPhiladelphia Fed Survey
March12.4
The Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey brought good news in March. General business ...
 
FlagUnited StatesNatural Gas Storage Report
03/11/2016-1 bil cubic feet
As spring weather looms, natural gas storage is falling by smaller amounts. Working gas in underground ...
 
FlagUnited StatesCurrent Account
2015Q4-$125.3 bil
The current account deficit, the broadest measure of U.S. trade with the rest of the world, narrowed ...
 
FlagUnited StatesJobless Claims
03/12/2016265,000
Layoffs are low, just one sign that the job market is tightening quickly and slack is diminishing. Initial ...
 
View More Releases


Survey of Business Confidence

Latest: 30.9

Business sentiment has firmed in recent weeks in tandem with the rally in global financial markets. The turmoil in markets late last year and early this year had noticeably weakened confidence, hitting assessments of present conditions especially hard. But recent responses to all of the survey questions have taken on a brighter hue. Expectations regarding the outlook into this summer remain notably strong, with over half of respondents saying conditions will improve by then. And despite the decline in confidence in recent months, in a broader historical context, business sentiment is good and consistent with an economy that is expanding at the high end of its potential.

View Full Analysis


Reader's Choice

U.S. Macro Outlook: Myth Busting
The electorate seems unconvinced, but solid fundamentals are driving the economy.

Global Outlook: Calling All Hands
Collective action is needed to protect the recovery.

U.S. Regional Outlook: The Expansion Continues
The outlook is upbeat, for most of the country.

U.S. Chartbook: Silencing the Critics
Job growth and vehicle sales in February should allay concerns about the economy.

U.S. Chartbook: Resilience is Tested
The expansion is still in mid-cycle, but recent financial market tightness has tempered sentiment.



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UPCOMING EVENTS
EBA Scenarios for the 2016 EU-wide Stress Test
March 23, 2016


Moody's Analytics Economic Briefing - Stamford CT
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April 06, 2016


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