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March 18, 2016

Dismal Scientist Daily Update

Highlights from Moody's Analytics forward looking, up-to-the-minute coverage of the global economy.


» Today's Commentary
» Insight on Critical Issues
» Today's Releases
» Survey of Business Confidence
» Reader's Choice

Today's Commentary

Economic Roundup: U.S. Markets and Consumers Go Their Own Ways
Consumer sentiment fell unexpectedly as financial markets continued to recover.

Canada Weekly: Auto Manufacturers Driving Growth
The cheap loonie is driving manufacturing growth.

LatAm Weekly: For Cuba, a New Lease on Life
The easing of financial restrictions will lift the island’s ailing economy.

Economic Briefing: JGBs Temporarily Reach New Lows
Bank Indonesia cut interest rates again.

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Insight on Critical Issues

U.S. Weekly Highlights and Preview, March 18, 2016
First look at Q4 corporate profits could be scary.

Spain Outlook: Sentiment Brightening Despite Risks
The investment climate is favorable and the recovery is accelerating, but there are headwinds.

Latin America Economic Preview: 21-25 March
Unemployment rises in Brazil, and consumption moderates in Mexico.

Macro Roundup: Japan in Recession Again?
Further monetary stimulus is needed to support inflation and boost consumption and investment.

View More Analysis


Today's Releases

FlagCanadaConsumer Price Index
February1.4%
Canadian inflation slowed in February, falling back to 1.4% after accelerating to 2% in January, largely ...
 
FlagCanadaRetail Trade
January2.1%
Retail sales recovered after December's fall. Retail sales jumped 2.1% in January to C$44.2 billion, ...
 
FlagChileGDP
2015Q41.3%
Chile’s economy remained underperforming at the end of last year, reporting a two-year deceleration. ...
 
FlagColombiaMonetary Policy
March6.50%
Colombia’s central bank board hiked the reference interest rate by 25 basis points at March’s policy ...
 
FlagGermanyProducer Price Index
February-3.0%
Weak economic activity and low oil prices have been weighing on German producer price inflation. Producer ...
 
FlagMexicoMonetary Policy
March3.75%
The Bank of Mexico kept monetary conditions on hold in March, after an unexpected rate hike in mid-February ...
 
FlagRussian FederationMonetary Policy
March11%
The Bank of Russia kept the key policy rate on hold at 11% at its March meeting, unchanged since August. ...
 
FlagRussian FederationProducer Price Index
February3.50%
Producer price inflation in Russia decelerated sharply to 3.5% y/y in February, from 7.5% in the previous ...
 
FlagSpainLending by Credit Institutions
January-3.7%
Domestic credit lending by Spanish banks dropped 3.7% in year-ago terms in January, slightly down from ...
 
FlagUnited StatesECRI Weekly Leading Index
03/11/2016131.6
The ECRI weekly leading index is on the rise again as leading indicators such as equities prices, job ...
 
FlagUnited StatesUniversity of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey
March90.0
Preliminary consumer sentiment fell in early March with declines in perceptions of current economic conditions ...
 
View More Releases


Survey of Business Confidence

Latest: 30.9

Business sentiment has firmed in recent weeks in tandem with the rally in global financial markets. The turmoil in markets late last year and early this year had noticeably weakened confidence, hitting assessments of present conditions especially hard. But recent responses to all of the survey questions have taken on a brighter hue. Expectations regarding the outlook into this summer remain notably strong, with over half of respondents saying conditions will improve by then. And despite the decline in confidence in recent months, in a broader historical context, business sentiment is good and consistent with an economy that is expanding at the high end of its potential.

View Full Analysis


Reader's Choice

U.S. Macro Outlook: Myth Busting
The electorate seems unconvinced, but solid fundamentals are driving the economy.

U.S. Regional Outlook: The Expansion Continues
The outlook is upbeat, for most of the country.

U.S. Chartbook: Resilience is Tested
The expansion is still in mid-cycle, but recent financial market tightness has tempered sentiment.

Candidate Report Card: The Democrats
Higher taxes, higher complexity, lower inequality.

U.S. Chartbook: Silencing the Critics
Job growth and vehicle sales in February should allay concerns about the economy.



About Moody's Analytics

Moody's Analytics, a subsidiary of Moody's Corporation, helps capital markets and credit risk management professionals worldwide respond to an evolving marketplace with confidence. Through its team of economists, Moody’s Analytics is a leading independent provider of research, credit risk management, modeling, data, and forecasts at the global, national and subnational levels.

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UPCOMING EVENTS
EBA Scenarios for the 2016 EU-wide Stress Test
March 23, 2016


Moody's Analytics Economic Briefing - Stamford CT
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April 06, 2016


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