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March 21, 2016

Dismal Scientist Daily Update

Highlights from Moody's Analytics forward looking, up-to-the-minute coverage of the global economy.


» Today's Commentary
» Insight on Critical Issues
» Today's Releases
» Survey of Business Confidence
» Reader's Choice

Today's Commentary

Iran Struggles to Boost Oil Production
Achievable increases will fail to offset lost production from U.S. shale formations.

Hope on Migration Crisis
Returning refugees to Turkey will be costly for Greece.

BoJ’s Mixed Messages
Japan's 2% inflation target drifts into the horizon despite negative rates.

Economic Briefing: Stocks Mixed on Low News
Possible election and early budget fails to lift Australian stocks or the currency.

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Insight on Critical Issues

U.S. Chartbook: How Data-Dependent Is the Fed?
The turn in core inflation should stick, but the Fed does not seem so sure.

U.S. Employment Outlook: High-Skilled Workers Face Hurdle
Weakening R&D intensity stifles job creation among skilled workers in productive industries.

U.S. Weekly Highlights and Preview, March 18, 2016
First look at Q4 corporate profits could be scary.

Spain Outlook: Sentiment Brightening Despite Risks
The investment climate is favorable and the recovery is accelerating, but there are headwinds.

View More Analysis


Today's Releases

FlagEuro ZoneBalance of Payments
January€6.3 bil
The euro zone's current account surplus narrowed to €6.3 billion in January, not seasonally adjusted, ...
 
FlagItalyBalance of Payments
January-€1.1 bil
Italy’s current account balance fell into deficit in January from a surplus a month earlier because of ...
 
FlagRussiaRetail Sales
February-5.9%
The annual decline in Russia’s retail sales decelerated to 5.9% y/y in February from 7.3% in January. ...
 
FlagRussian FederationUnemployment
February5.8%
Russia's unemployment rate was stable in February at 5.8%, its level since November. The number of people ...
 
FlagSpainForeign Trade
January-€2.4 bil
Spain’s monthly trade deficit narrowed to €2.4 billion in January from an upwardly revised €2.6 billion ...
 
FlagUnited StatesExisting-Home Sales
February5.08 mil
Existing-home sales tumbled in February, falling 7.1% from January, though still up by 2.2% from February ...
 
FlagUnited StatesChicago Fed National Activity Index
February-0.29
U.S. economic activity decelerated in February, according to the Chicago Fed National Activity Index, ...
 
FlagWorldMoody's Analytics Survey of Business Confidence
03/18/201630.5
Global business sentiment is stable, and consistent with an economy growing at its potential. This comes ...
 
View More Releases


Survey of Business Confidence

Latest: 30.5

Global business sentiment is stable, and consistent with an economy growing at its potential. This comes after several months of weakening confidence. The softer sentiment coincided with the turmoil in financial markets late last year and early this. Assessments of present conditions have been hit especially hard, while encouragingly, expectations regarding conditions later this year have held up much better. South American and, to a lesser degree, Asian companies are the most worried. Sentiment in these regions is consistent with below-potential growth. North American and European businesses are more upbeat, but sentiment has weakened in these regions as well.

View Full Analysis


Reader's Choice

U.S. Macro Outlook: Myth Busting
The electorate seems unconvinced, but solid fundamentals are driving the economy.

U.S. Regional Outlook: The Expansion Continues
The outlook is upbeat, for most of the country.

U.S. Chartbook: Resilience is Tested
The expansion is still in mid-cycle, but recent financial market tightness has tempered sentiment.

Candidate Report Card: The Democrats
Higher taxes, higher complexity, lower inequality.

U.S. Workforce Expands
Revised data show job growth, though slowing, was stronger than previously reported.



About Moody's Analytics

Moody's Analytics, a subsidiary of Moody's Corporation, helps capital markets and credit risk management professionals worldwide respond to an evolving marketplace with confidence. Through its team of economists, Moody’s Analytics is a leading independent provider of research, credit risk management, modeling, data, and forecasts at the global, national and subnational levels.

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UPCOMING EVENTS
EBA Scenarios for the 2016 EU-wide Stress Test
March 23, 2016


Moody's Analytics Economic Briefing - Stamford CT
March 24, 2016


Moody's Analytics Economic & Consumer Credit Briefing - San Francisco CA
April 05, 2016


Moody's Analytics Economic & Consumer Credit Briefing - Orange County CA
April 06, 2016


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