Today's Commentary Economic Roundup: Little to Like in U.S. Durable Goods We now know equipment spending probably fell in the first quarter, putting a dent in Q1 GDP. NAIRU Is Economists' Loch Ness Monster Economists' track record in spotting the bottom in the unemployment rate isn't great. Durable Goods Orders Show U.S. Manufacturing's Struggles Equipment spending could drop this quarter, and we lowered our estimate of Q1 GDP growth. Economic Briefing: Singaporeâs Manufacturers Lay an Egg Comments from Federal Reserve board members push Asian currencies down against the greenback. View More Analysis Insight on Critical Issues Asia-Pacific Economic Preview: 28 March-1 April Japan faces tough conditions at home and abroad. Europe Economic Preview: 28 March-1 April Markets will look for signs of deflation pressures in euro zone CPI data. Macro Roundup: China's Housing Challenge Recovery in big cities is not spreading to smaller cities. France Outlook: Labour Market Revolution A new labour code would boost employment, but it faces resistance. View More Analysis Today's Releases View More Releases Survey of Business Confidence Latest: 30.5 Global business sentiment is stable, and consistent with an economy growing at its potential. This comes after several months of weakening confidence. The softer sentiment coincided with the turmoil in financial markets late last year and early this. Assessments of present conditions have been hit especially hard, while encouragingly, expectations regarding conditions later this year have held up much better. South American and, to a lesser degree, Asian companies are the most worried. Sentiment in these regions is consistent with below-potential growth. North American and European businesses are more upbeat, but sentiment has weakened in these regions as well. View Full Analysis Reader's Choice U.S. Regional Outlook: The Expansion Continues The outlook is upbeat, for most of the country. U.S. Macro Outlook: Myth Busting The electorate seems unconvinced, but solid fundamentals are driving the economy. U.S. Chartbook: Resilience is Tested The expansion is still in mid-cycle, but recent financial market tightness has tempered sentiment. Candidate Report Card: The Democrats Higher taxes, higher complexity, lower inequality. Economic Roundup: Is the Fed in Denial? Fed was surprisingly dovish, and new rate path seems inconsistent with the job market, inflation.
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