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March 28, 2016

Dismal Scientist Daily Update

Highlights from Moody's Analytics forward looking, up-to-the-minute coverage of the global economy.


» Today's Commentary
» Insight on Critical Issues
» Today's Releases
» Survey of Business Confidence
» Reader's Choice

Today's Commentary

Economic Roundup: U.S. Consumer Puts a Dent in Q1 GDP
Q1 GDP now tracking 0.8% at an annual rate.

U.S. Consumers Turn Frugal
Real spending rose in February but January was revised lower, putting a dent in Q1 GDP.

Economic Briefing: Asian Markets Open on a High
A weaker yen supported Japanese equities.

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Insight on Critical Issues

U.S. Chartbook: Profit Pain
The fourth quarter wasn't kind to corporate profits but the economic costs should be small, for now.

U.S. Weekly Highlights and Preview, March 25, 2016
The job market could force the Fed's hand.

Latin America Economic Preview: 28 March-1 April
Argentina probably entered recession in 2015.

Asia-Pacific Economic Preview: 28 March-1 April
Japan faces tough conditions at home and abroad.

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Today's Releases

FlagMexicoTrade Balance
February-US$724.7 mil
Mexico’s trade balance continued to report a deficit in February as the value of imports continued to ...
 
FlagUnited StatesPersonal Income
February0.2%
Wages and salaries were a drag on personal income growth in February, while nonwage income growth was ...
 
FlagUnited StatesPCE Deflator
February-0.1%
The modest dip in the headline personal consumption deflator in February was widely expected and doesn’t ...
 
FlagUnited StatesPersonal Spending
February0.2%
Consumer spending rose slightly in February, at 0.2%, with the U.S. consumer continuing to drive the ...
 
FlagUnited StatesBlack Knight Home Price Index
January5.3%
The Black Knight Home Price Index advanced cautiously in January, in line with its performance in the ...
 
FlagUnited StatesPending Home Sales
February109.1
The pending home sales index bounced back in February, reversing January’s loss and bringing the index ...
 
FlagUnited StatesInternational Trade in Goods - Advanced
February-$62.9 bil
Weak overseas demand and the strong U.S. dollar are fueling the nominal goods deficit. The goods deficit ...
 
FlagUnited StatesTexas Manufacturing Outlook Survey
March-13.6
Factory activity in Texas continued to contract in March, with just about all measures from the Texas ...
 
FlagWorldMoody's Analytics Survey of Business Confidence
03/25/201630.7
The wild swings in global financial markets have buffeted business confidence. Sentiment fell with the ...
 
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Survey of Business Confidence

Latest: 30.7

The wild swings in global financial markets have buffeted business confidence. Sentiment fell with the markets through early this year but, like the markets, has firmed in recent weeks. Recent responses to all of the survey questions have taken on a brighter hue. And despite the decline in confidence in recent months, in a broader historical context, business sentiment is good and consistent with an economy that is expanding at the high end of its potential.

View Full Analysis


Reader's Choice

U.S. Consumer Outlook: Supports for Spending Shift
Real spending growth will reaccelerate, but supports will be different from last year.

U.S. Employment Outlook: High-Skilled Workers Face Hurdle
Weakening R&D intensity stifles job creation among skilled workers in productive industries.

U.S. Chartbook: How Data-Dependent Is the Fed?
The turn in core inflation should stick, but the Fed does not seem so sure.

A More Promising Road to GSE Reform
Reforming Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac is critical.

The Economics of Japan's Negative Bond Yields
At their current levels, negative rates and yields are unlikely to spur inflation.



About Moody's Analytics

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UPCOMING EVENTS
Moody's Analytics Economic & Consumer Credit Briefing - San Francisco CA
April 05, 2016


Moody's Analytics Economic & Consumer Credit Briefing - Orange County CA
April 06, 2016


Moody's Analytics Economic & Consumer Credit Briefing - Los Angeles CA
April 07, 2016


Moody's Analytics Economic & Consumer Credit Briefing - Dallas TX
April 11, 2016


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