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March 29, 2016

Dismal Scientist Daily Update

Highlights from Moody's Analytics forward looking, up-to-the-minute coverage of the global economy.


» Today's Commentary
» Insight on Critical Issues
» Today's Releases
» Survey of Business Confidence
» Reader's Choice

Today's Commentary

Yellen Sends Clear Signal the Fed Isn't in Any Rush
The Fed chair appears willing to embrace a policy that risks allowing inflation to overshoot.

Chile Reduces 2016 Growth Estimates
The economy suffers from structural weakness and negative external effects.

Mounting Risks Threaten U.K. Financial Stability
The Bank of England says the EU membership referendum is the major short-term risk.

Economic Briefing: Japanese Consumption Data Remain Downbeat
Asian markets were mixed ahead of key U.S. data due out this week.

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Insight on Critical Issues

Revisiting Residual Seasonality in U.S. GDP
The issue hasn't gone away; this quarter is likely being affected.

Noose Tightens Around Europe's Energy Firms
Closure of conventional power stations and overreliance on renewables threaten energy security.

U.S. Chartbook: Profit Pain
The fourth quarter wasn't kind to corporate profits but the economic costs should be small, for now.

U.S. Weekly Highlights and Preview, March 25, 2016
The job market could force the Fed's hand.

View More Analysis


Today's Releases

FlagCanadaIndustrial Product and Raw Materials Price Indexes
February-1.1%
The Industrial Product Price Index fell 1.1% in February, the largest monthly decline since December ...
 
FlagEuro ZoneMonetary Aggregates
February5.0%
The seasonally adjusted annual growth of the euro zone’s M3 money supply remained at 5% y/y in February. ...
 
FlagHong KongForeign Trade
February-HK$33.1 bil
Weak external conditions will weigh on Hong Kong’s exports throughout 2016. Hong Kong’s trade deficit ...
 
FlagItalyConsumer and Business Confidence
March100.1
Italy’s business confidence fell in March, reversing February’s gain. Business confidence dropped to ...
 
FlagMexicoEconomic Activity Index
January2.3%
Economic activity began the year with growth below potential, though it is still benefiting from expansionary ...
 
FlagUnited StatesTexas Service Sector Outlook Survey
March-3.8
Texas service sector activity grew in March, albeit at a slower rate, but the current sentiment and outlook ...
 
FlagUnited StatesConference Board Consumer Confidence
March96.2
The Conference Board Consumer Confidence index rose modestly in March. Consumers saw current economic ...
 
FlagUnited StatesS&P/Case-Shiller® Home Price Indexes
January5.7%
Existing-home price appreciation followed a similar trajectory in the three months ended in January as ...
 
View More Releases


Survey of Business Confidence

Latest: 30.7

The wild swings in global financial markets have buffeted business confidence. Sentiment fell with the markets through early this year but, like the markets, has firmed in recent weeks. Recent responses to all of the survey questions have taken on a brighter hue. And despite the decline in confidence in recent months, in a broader historical context, business sentiment is good and consistent with an economy that is expanding at the high end of its potential.

View Full Analysis


Reader's Choice

U.S. Consumer Outlook: Supports for Spending Shift
Real spending growth will reaccelerate, but supports will be different from last year.

A More Promising Road to GSE Reform
Reforming Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac is critical.

U.S. Employment Outlook: High-Skilled Workers Face Hurdle
Weakening R&D intensity stifles job creation among skilled workers in productive industries.

U.S. Chartbook: How Data-Dependent Is the Fed?
The turn in core inflation should stick, but the Fed does not seem so sure.

The Economics of Japan's Negative Bond Yields
At their current levels, negative rates and yields are unlikely to spur inflation.



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UPCOMING EVENTS
Moody's Analytics Economic & Consumer Credit Briefing - San Francisco CA
April 05, 2016


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