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March 30, 2016

Dismal Scientist Daily Update

Highlights from Moody's Analytics forward looking, up-to-the-minute coverage of the global economy.


» Today's Commentary
» Insight on Critical Issues
» Today's Releases
» Survey of Business Confidence
» Reader's Choice

Today's Commentary

Puzzling Increase in U.S. Apparel Prices
Gains won't stick and have not been behind the upward turn in inflation.

Easter Sales Aid U.S. Retailers
Demand for spring apparel, food and outdoor equipment helped sales.

Economic Briefing: U.S. Fed’s Dovish Tone Bolsters Asian Stocks
Asian industrial production remains subdued as global demand softens.

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Insight on Critical Issues

Revisiting Residual Seasonality in U.S. GDP
The issue hasn't gone away; this quarter is likely being affected.

Noose Tightens Around Europe's Energy Firms
Closure of conventional power stations and overreliance on renewables threaten energy security.

U.S. Chartbook: Profit Pain
The fourth quarter wasn't kind to corporate profits but the economic costs should be small, for now.

U.S. Weekly Highlights and Preview, March 25, 2016
The job market could force the Fed's hand.

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Today's Releases

FlagArgentinaGDP
2015Q40.9%
The Argentine government released preliminary GDP figures for the third and fourth quarters of 2015. ...
 
FlagChileManufacturing Production
February1.3%
Chile’s manufactures continued to underperform in February, as production capacity remains limited. Hence, ...
 
FlagChileRetail Sales
February7.4%
Chilean retail sales were strong in February considering the country’s faltering economy. The index rose ...
 
FlagEuro ZoneBusiness and Consumer Sentiment
March103.0
The euro zone's economic sentiment indicator slid to 103 in March from 103.9. Moody's Analytics had forecast ...
 
FlagMexicoEmployment Situation
February4.1% Unemployment
Mexico’s unemployment remained high in February as the seasonal effect at the beginning of the year continued. ...
 
FlagUnited StatesOil Inventories
03/25/2016534.8 mil barrels
A fall in the pace of crude oil imports drove a slowdown in the pace of crude oil inventory accumulation. ...
 
FlagUnited StatesMBA Mortgage Applications Survey
03/25/2016-1.0%
Mortgage applications decreased for the third consecutive week. The composite index was down by 1%. The ...
 
FlagUnited StatesRisk of Recession
February21%
The U.S. economy isn’t at serious risk of falling into a recession soon, a testament to the strength ...
 
FlagUnited StatesADP National Employment Report
March200,000
Private sector job growth is holding remarkably steady at a strong pace. The labor market added 200,000 ...
 
FlagUnited StatesAgricultural Prices
February3.9%
Agricultural prices rebounded in February, offsetting the losses over the previous two months. Prices ...
 
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Survey of Business Confidence

Latest: 30.7

The wild swings in global financial markets have buffeted business confidence. Sentiment fell with the markets through early this year but, like the markets, has firmed in recent weeks. Recent responses to all of the survey questions have taken on a brighter hue. And despite the decline in confidence in recent months, in a broader historical context, business sentiment is good and consistent with an economy that is expanding at the high end of its potential.

View Full Analysis


Reader's Choice

U.S. Consumer Outlook: Supports for Spending Shift
Real spending growth will reaccelerate, but supports will be different from last year.

A More Promising Road to GSE Reform
Reforming Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac is critical.

U.S. Employment Outlook: High-Skilled Workers Face Hurdle
Weakening R&D intensity stifles job creation among skilled workers in productive industries.

U.S. Chartbook: Profit Pain
The fourth quarter wasn't kind to corporate profits but the economic costs should be small, for now.

U.S. Chartbook: How Data-Dependent Is the Fed?
The turn in core inflation should stick, but the Fed does not seem so sure.



About Moody's Analytics

Moody's Analytics, a subsidiary of Moody's Corporation, helps capital markets and credit risk management professionals worldwide respond to an evolving marketplace with confidence. Through its team of economists, Moody’s Analytics is a leading independent provider of research, credit risk management, modeling, data, and forecasts at the global, national and subnational levels.

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UPCOMING EVENTS
Moody's Analytics Economic & Consumer Credit Briefing - San Francisco CA
April 05, 2016


Moody's Analytics Economic & Consumer Credit Briefing - Orange County CA
April 06, 2016


Moody's Analytics Economic & Consumer Credit Briefing - Los Angeles CA
April 07, 2016


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April 11, 2016


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