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March 31, 2016

Dismal Scientist Daily Update

Highlights from Moody's Analytics forward looking, up-to-the-minute coverage of the global economy.


» Today's Commentary
» Insight on Critical Issues
» Today's Releases
» Survey of Business Confidence
» Reader's Choice

Today's Commentary

Turkey's GDP Surprises on the Upside
Household consumption and government spending drive growth.

Another Hit to U.S. Q1 GDP
Revisions to wholesale inventories knock another tenth of a percentage point off growth.

Final Thoughts Ahead of March Employment
We have dialed back our forecast and now look for a 200,000 increase.

Czech Central Bank Holds Fire on Key Rate
Currency interventions will continue for one more year.

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Insight on Critical Issues

Asia-Pacific Economic Preview: 4-10 April
Australian consumer activity is set to improve, while pessimism mounts in Japan.

Europe Economic Preview: 4-8 April
Euro zone economies appear to have turned a corner, though risks continue.

Latin America Economic Preview: 4-8 April
Inflation has begun to moderate after reaching high rates in some countries.

Germany Outlook: A Turn Towards Anglo-American Trade
Although domestic demand drove expansion last year, the trade surplus reached a record high.

View More Analysis


Today's Releases

FlagCanadaEarnings, Hours and Employment
January0.4%
Average weekly earnings of nonfarm payroll employees were $953 in January, down 0.7% from December. Compared ...
 
FlagCanadaIndustry Output
January0.6%
The Canadian economy continues to accelerate. Real Canadian GDP rose 0.6% in January, the fourth consecutive ...
 
FlagChileEmployment
February5.9%
The national unemployment rate averaged 5.9% in the December-February period, down from 6.1% a year earlier. ...
 
FlagEuro ZoneConsumer Price Index
March-0.1%
 
FlagEuro ZonePreliminary Consumer Price Index
March-0.1%
Deflation pressures eased a little in March, with annual harmonized inflation climbing to -0.1% from ...
 
FlagFranceHousehold Consumption Survey
February0.6%
French household consumption rose 0.6% month over month in February after adding a revised 1% in January. ...
 
FlagFranceProducer Price Index
February-4.1%
France's producer prices fell significantly, by 4.1% y/y in February, following a decrease of 2.7% in ...
 
FlagGermanyRetail Sales
February-0.4%
German retail sales fell 0.4% m/m in February after a revised 0.1% drop a month earlier. Sales climbed ...
 
FlagGermanyEmployment Situation
March6.2%
Germany’s seasonally adjusted unemployment rate was 6.2% in March for the third consecutive month, thanks ...
 
FlagItalyProducer Price Index
February-3.5%
Low energy prices and a cooling economy weighed on Italy’s producer prices in February. Producer prices ...
 
FlagJapanHousing Starts
February7.8%
Japan's housing starts surprised on the upside, although the overall trend remains weak. Housing starts ...
 
FlagSpainRetail Sales
February7.4%
Spain's retail trade, not seasonally adjusted, surprised on the upside and expanded 7.4% y/y in February, ...
 
FlagThailandPrivate Consumption
February3.1%
Weak domestic and external conditions mean that February’s gains in consumption spending are unlikely ...
 
FlagThailandForeign Trade
FebruaryUS$6.0 bil
Weak domestic conditions are constraining Thai imports. Thailand’s trade surplus expanded to US$6 billion ...
 
FlagUnited KingdomBoE Lending to Individuals
February£4.9 bil
Total net lending to individuals climbed by £4.9 billion in February, down from a £5.4 billion increase ...
 
FlagUnited StatesSt. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index
03/25/2016-0.842
Financial market conditions eased as fears of a U.S. recession subsided. The St. Louis Fed Financial ...
 
FlagUnited StatesWholesale Trade (MWTR)
January0.2%
 
FlagUnited StatesNatural Gas Storage Report
03/25/2016-25 bil cubic feet
Natural gas storage fell after rising in the previous week, giving the gas market some good news. Working ...
 
FlagUnited StatesChallenger Report
March48,207
Coming on the heels of other recent reports such as the ADP employment report and first-time unemployment ...
 
FlagUnited StatesJobless Claims
03/26/2016276,000
The larger than anticipated increase in initial claims isn’t cause for concern. New filings rose 11,000 ...
 
FlagUruguayGDP
2015Q4-0.1%
Uruguay’s economy ground to a halt in the fourth quarter amid plunging investment in the country’s export-oriented ...
 
View More Releases


Survey of Business Confidence

Latest: 30.7

The wild swings in global financial markets have buffeted business confidence. Sentiment fell with the markets through early this year but, like the markets, has firmed in recent weeks. Recent responses to all of the survey questions have taken on a brighter hue. And despite the decline in confidence in recent months, in a broader historical context, business sentiment is good and consistent with an economy that is expanding at the high end of its potential.

View Full Analysis


Reader's Choice

U.S. Consumer Outlook: Supports for Spending Shift
Real spending growth will reaccelerate, but supports will be different from last year.

A More Promising Road to GSE Reform
Reforming Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac is critical.

U.S. Chartbook: Profit Pain
The fourth quarter wasn't kind to corporate profits but the economic costs should be small, for now.

U.S. Credit Outlook: A Cautionary Tale
Both lenders and consumers have been wary to extend and demand credit.

The Oil Rebalancing Act
U.S. oil production holds the key for oil prices.



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